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04-04-2020, 10:38 AM
#1621
Apologies in advance if this chart has recently been discussed. It shows new cases in Mississippi by date of onset of symptoms. The numbers in the grey box on the far right will get worse, but the overall trend indicates that new cases are trending downward.
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04-04-2020, 12:06 PM
#1622
Originally Posted by
HeCannotGo
Apologies in advance if this chart has recently been discussed. It shows new cases in Mississippi by date of onset of symptoms. The numbers in the grey box on the far right will get worse, but the overall trend indicates that new cases are trending downward.
This chart does look good but I think they should extend the grey area a few more days. We have a test lag of more than 7 days in some cases. It's looked like this for a while but then as the days pass more cases get added.
The fact that it's been relatively flat is really good though.
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04-04-2020, 12:08 PM
#1623
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ess-experiment
...
This is interesting to me... Swedish are carrying on.
Last edited by msstate7; 04-04-2020 at 12:20 PM.
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04-04-2020, 12:48 PM
#1624
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Yeah, I was reading another article about Sweden earlier. Currently they have 3x as many deaths per capita as their neighbor Norway and their economy is tanking anyway. Norway locked down early and has been testing a shitload of people and seem to have it under control. Regardless of how it ends up, I think Norway vs Sweden will be a case study going forward.
Here's the article I read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-response
Last edited by hacker; 04-04-2020 at 12:57 PM.
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04-04-2020, 01:07 PM
#1625
Originally Posted by
hacker
Yeah, I was reading another article about Sweden earlier. Currently they have 3x as many deaths per capita as their neighbor Norway and their economy is tanking anyway. Norway locked down early and has been testing a shitload of people and seem to have it under control. Regardless of how it ends up, I think Norway vs Sweden will be a case study going forward.
Here's the article I read:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-response
Do you have both countries' test numbers per capita? I thought locking down was to prevent spread. Norway has 991 cases per million to Sweden's 607. This could mean nothing though of tests per capita are totally different
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04-04-2020, 01:12 PM
#1626
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Do you have both countries' test numbers per capita? I thought locking down was to prevent spread. Norway has 991 cases per million to Sweden's 607. This could mean nothing though of tests per capita are totally different
Yeah, they added test numbers here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Norway 6x the tests per capita
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04-04-2020, 02:08 PM
#1627
Originally Posted by
hacker
That certainly accounts for the difference
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04-04-2020, 02:35 PM
#1628
Originally Posted by
HeCannotGo
Apologies in advance if this chart has recently been discussed. It shows new cases in Mississippi by date of onset of symptoms. The numbers in the grey box on the far right will get worse, but the overall trend indicates that new cases are trending downward.
I have been tracking that chart and the grey box is wayyyyy to small. Yesterday they added cases as far back as the middle of March, although there weren't significant additions prior to I think March 23rd. Trend has held steady though even though cases keep getting added back. It's been relatively flat and until Friday when they added a bunch of cases to March 23rd, it looked like March 20th might be the peak. Guessing the cases added to March 24th through the 26th over the next few days will tell the tale.
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04-04-2020, 06:34 PM
#1629
Only 2 countries (Italy and San Marino) have a death rate over 50 per million that have tested at least 10000 per million; this is a sample size of 23 countries. Of this 23 country sample, 12 have a case per million of over 1000. There's only 21 countries in the world with a 1000 cases per million. This data (IMO) supports my theory this virus is a lot more prevalent than the documented cases and the death rate is inflated
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04-04-2020, 06:36 PM
#1630
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Only 2 countries (Italy and San Marino) have a death rate over 50 per million that have tested at least 10000 per million; this is a sample size of 23 countries. Of this 23 country sample, 12 have a case per million of over 1000. There's only 21 countries in the world with a 1000 cases per million. This data (IMO) supports my theory this virus is a lot more prevalent than the documented cases and the death rate is inflated
No doubt.
This will sound insane...
But I kind of hope it is more prevalent BUT asymptomatic in most people so that we can build immunity more quickly.
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04-04-2020, 06:38 PM
#1631
Originally Posted by
Todd4State
No doubt.
This will sound insane...
But I kind of hope it is more prevalent BUT asymptomatic in most people so that we can build immunity more quickly.
Not insane at all. I hope the exact thing.
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04-04-2020, 06:42 PM
#1632
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Only 2 countries (Italy and San Marino) have a death rate over 50 per million that have tested at least 10000 per million; this is a sample size of 23 countries. Of this 23 country sample, 12 have a case per million of over 1000. There's only 21 countries in the world with a 1000 cases per million. This data (IMO) supports my theory this virus is a lot more prevalent than the documented cases and the death rate is inflated
I agree. We really don't know how many people have had either no symptoms or mild symptoms and treated it on their own (with no medical visit or consultation), and therefore the State Health Departments and the CDC would not be aware that they even had the virus.
Last edited by yjnkdawg; 04-04-2020 at 07:39 PM.
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04-05-2020, 09:12 AM
#1633
But muh numbers and graphs don’t lie.
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04-05-2020, 10:20 AM
#1634
183 new cases and 8 new deaths.
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04-05-2020, 12:12 PM
#1635
If you want to read some very interesting tweets and data, I'd recommend following this guy on Twitter.
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04-05-2020, 12:14 PM
#1636
Like others, I suspect a sizable number of people have contracted and recovered from the virus never knowing they had contracted COVID-19. (Particularly early on in the pandemic.)
I have a family member in another state that is recovering at home. (He is a nurse and contracted COVID-19 at work.) I spoke with him and compared his symptoms with the symptoms I manifested a month ago which were sore throat, light cough, chills, fever and fatigue. Almost an exact match. The antibody test should come on line in a month or two and I suspect the data generated over time will be very revealing. No matter, the next few weeks are going to be very challenging for our nation. However, as we always have, we will endure because that is who we are.
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04-05-2020, 12:30 PM
#1637
Originally Posted by
gtowndawg
If you want to read some very interesting tweets and data, I'd recommend following this guy on Twitter.
Not saying this isn't some badass shit but ... Cuomo has been up there in his requirements of what will be needed. Will it reach that? Don't know. But I've thought all along there may be some very conservative (relative to worst case) scenarios being fed into the models.
But it also ain't over yet so don't really know yet.
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04-05-2020, 02:05 PM
#1638
Originally Posted by
dawgday166
Not saying this isn't some badass shit but ... Cuomo has been up there in his requirements of what will be needed. Will it reach that? Don't know. But I've thought all along there may be some very conservative (relative to worst case) scenarios being fed into the models.
But it also ain't over yet so don't really know yet.
Since I started following this guy it make me check Tennessee everyday. The model says there should be 4,870 hospitalized in Tennessee today (April 5). But Tennessee reports 311. And the model (4,870 in Tennessee as of today) assumes that EVERYONE is social distancing. In other words, the 4,870 for today would be the best case scenario for Tennessee. I drove my car Friday for the first time in 3 weeks. I'm doing my part but I'm getting more and more skeptical each day.
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04-05-2020, 03:40 PM
#1639
Originally Posted by
gtowndawg
Since I started following this guy it make me check Tennessee everyday. The model says there should be 4,870 hospitalized in Tennessee today (April 5). But Tennessee reports 311. And the model (4,870 in Tennessee as of today) assumes that EVERYONE is social distancing. In other words, the 4,870 for today would be the best case scenario for Tennessee. I drove my car Friday for the first time in 3 weeks. I'm doing my part but I'm getting more and more skeptical each day.
Well ... the timing in the models could be off some that's why I'm reluctant to say it won't be that bad. So I wouldn't relax too much just yet ... the potential may still be there hidden somewhere. In another 2 to 4 weeks I think we'll see more identifiable trends and more reliable data forming. I also tend to think latitude with regard to heat/cold and humidity are affecting it some.
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04-05-2020, 06:27 PM
#1640
We definitely have slowed this down a whole lot as a country. Credit needs to be given that we've gotten our heads out of our asses and are starting to see the effects of social distancing. Still, crossed into .1% of the country *PROVEN* infected with this. About 3% of that subset dead. Figure as it goes we'll see slightly better results.
The exponential rate of growing is finally starting to hit its wall. Logarithmically we are starting to see this flatten. My fear was that we wouldn't see that until we broke the 1 million infected mark. Hopefully this continues to be the case and flattens more.
Updating my prediction, i think this will have about a 1.75% death rate among proven cases w/ hopefully no more than 2% of the country proven infected. (That would be only around 100k deaths) That would be an astounding recovery that we made from where we were looking at a few weeks ago. Hopefully people understand this as proof social distancing works and that it helped save lives. These next two months are going to be rough. Let's see if we can keep it up.
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