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04-01-2020, 10:40 PM
#1561
Originally Posted by
Joebob
It seems that way here in Dallas too, until I think about all the restaurants, nail shops, and barbers that are shut down.
I'm an hour north of you.
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04-01-2020, 10:40 PM
#1562
Originally Posted by
BeardoMSU
Wrong.
I'm speaking from experience. Atleast that's the case here. So it's not wrong
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04-01-2020, 10:58 PM
#1563
Originally Posted by
Dawgology
I hear it cures the Corona!**
Then I just ate the cure. I'm good.
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04-01-2020, 11:09 PM
#1564
I just read a list of essential businesses in MS. After I finished I honestly wondered what was non-essential.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wlo...outputType=amp
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04-02-2020, 08:28 AM
#1565
Spare me the stuff about the numbers being wrong blah blah
Code:
Country Death Rate
United States 2.35%
Italy 11.92%
Spain 9.07%
Germany 1.18%
France 7.08%
United Kingdom 7.98%
US was 1.3% a week ago
Italy was 6.9% 3 weeks ago
Spain was 4% 3 weeks ago
Germany was 0.5% a week ago
France and UK were 3-4% a couple weeks ago
Last edited by hacker; 04-02-2020 at 08:31 AM.
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04-02-2020, 08:49 AM
#1566
Originally Posted by
hacker
Spare me the stuff about the numbers being wrong blah blah
Code:
Country Death Rate
United States 2.35%
Italy 11.92%
Spain 9.07%
Germany 1.18%
France 7.08%
United Kingdom 7.98%
US was 1.3% a week ago
Italy was 6.9% 3 weeks ago
Spain was 4% 3 weeks ago
Germany was 0.5% a week ago
France and UK were 3-4% a couple weeks ago
Wait, so you think every case of covid19 is recorded?
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04-02-2020, 08:53 AM
#1567
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Wait, so you think every case of covid19 is recorded?
Obviously not. But the death rate in all countries is increasing and it's totally fair to compare a country to where they were a week or two ago.
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04-02-2020, 08:54 AM
#1568
Originally Posted by
hacker
Obviously not. But the death rate in all countries is increasing and it's totally fair to compare a country to where they were a week or two ago.
https://yournews.com/2020/03/27/1532...-very-bad-flu/
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04-02-2020, 08:55 AM
#1569
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Wait, so you think every case of covid19 is recorded?
You keep searching for perfection in this and you're not going to find it.
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04-02-2020, 09:08 AM
#1570
Originally Posted by
msstate7
You have to look at the current death rate numbers as "chance of dying when you're sick enough to get tested"
Sure the actual rate will be much lower considering asymptomatic cases. And yes, Dr. Fauci said it's probably less than 1% overall. But I think he had a poor choice of words in that paper. Even a 4% death rate is "closer to the flu" than it is to the 10% from SARS.
But if you're actually showing symptoms from this disease, the death rate is closer to SARS in some places. (And they're all increasing)
Last edited by hacker; 04-02-2020 at 09:10 AM.
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04-02-2020, 09:11 AM
#1571
Originally Posted by
chef dixon
You keep searching for perfection in this and you're not going to find it.
My opinion is the documented cases are waaaaaay off, so the death rate is waaaay off. Hell, if you used only the documented cases of the flu, the death rate for the flu would be much, much higher. The CDC estimates how many have/had the flu to calculate death rate. The CDC estimates that between oct 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there have been 38-54 million cases of the flu. Now covid19 is supposedly twice as contagious, and there's no vaccine... now considering this, you telling me there have been only 961000 cases?
ETA... I realize corona is more deadly than the flu.
Last edited by msstate7; 04-02-2020 at 09:15 AM.
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04-02-2020, 09:13 AM
#1572
Originally Posted by
msstate7
My opinion is the documented cases are waaaaaay off, so the death rate is waaaay off. Hell, if you used only the documented cases of the flu, the death rate for the flu would be much, much higher. The CDC estimates how many have/had the flu to calculate death rate. The CDC estimates that between oct 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there have been 38-54 million cases of the flu. Now covid19 is supposedly twice as contagious, and there's no vaccine... now considering this, you telling me there have been only 961000 cases?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm
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04-02-2020, 09:19 AM
#1573
Originally Posted by
msstate7
My opinion is the documented cases are waaaaaay off, so the death rate is waaaay off. Hell, if you used only the documented cases of the flu, the death rate for the flu would be much, much higher. The CDC estimates how many have/had the flu to calculate death rate. The CDC estimates that between oct 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there have been 38-54 million cases of the flu. Now covid19 is supposedly twice as contagious, and there's no vaccine... now considering this, you telling me there have been only 961000 cases?
ETA... I realize corona is more deadly than the flu.
I'd put the max actual cases at like 5 million. Remember, it started from 1 person. It takes a while for that to grow especially considering the longer incubation time.
But it's not like all deaths are getting classified correctly either.
[tweet2]1245161232476209154[/tweet2]
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04-02-2020, 09:22 AM
#1574
Originally Posted by
hacker
I'd put the max actual cases at like 5 million. Remember, it started from 1 person. It takes a while for that to grow especially considering the longer incubation time.
But it's not like all deaths are getting classified correctly either.
[tweet2]1245161232476209154[/tweet2]
5 million in the U.S.?
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04-02-2020, 09:28 AM
#1575
Originally Posted by
confucius say
5 million in the U.S.?
Yeah, I'd like him to clarify this too. The CDC flu cases (38-54 million) above is US only
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04-02-2020, 09:41 AM
#1576
Originally Posted by
confucius say
5 million in the U.S.?
Probably max 1 million in the US. For every person sick enough to get a test, there may be 4 out there whose symptoms weren't bad enough to get tested.
Iceland has been randomly testing everyone. They show 50% of positive cases are asymptomatic.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europ...ntl/index.html
Edit: Assuming the 50% asymptomatic stat holds true, for there to be more than 1 million total cases, there would have to be more than twice as many undetected cases where the person is actually sick and not getting tested. I don't think that's true.
Last edited by hacker; 04-02-2020 at 09:51 AM.
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04-02-2020, 10:03 AM
#1577
Originally Posted by
hacker
You have to look at the current death rate numbers as "chance of dying when you're sick enough to get tested"
Sure the actual rate will be much lower considering asymptomatic cases. And yes, Dr. Fauci said it's probably less than 1% overall. But I think he had a poor choice of words in that paper. Even a 4% death rate is "closer to the flu" than it is to the 10% from SARS.
But if you're actually showing symptoms from this disease, the death rate is closer to SARS in some places. (And they're all increasing)
I think you have to look at the current "death rate numbers" as all over the map and very situation specific. Unless Italy is actively doing something to tested people to make their death rate worse, I don't think it's anywhere near 11% of people sick enough to be tested. No clue what's actually happening; may be that people are so freaked out that they don't go to get tested unless it's bad enough that they need to be hospitalized. Could possibly be that they have some genetic predisposition that makes it particularly deadly, but I'm guessing it's more that the data has become even more unreliable since they've been overwhelmed by it.
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04-02-2020, 10:10 AM
#1578
104 new cases and 4 new deaths in MS last 24 hours.
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04-02-2020, 10:54 AM
#1579
Originally Posted by
hacker
Obviously not. But the death rate in all countries is increasing and it's totally fair to compare a country to where they were a week or two ago.
In most of those countries unless you have severe symptoms that are close to putting you in the hospital you don't get tested, period. It's still pretty much that way here too.
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04-02-2020, 10:57 AM
#1580
Originally Posted by
Liverpooldawg
In most of those countries unless you have severe symptoms that are close to putting you in the hospital you don't get tested, period. It's still pretty much that way here too.
I don't think that's true. I think the large majority of tests are negative in all of those countries. Will verify later though.
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