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03-21-2020, 06:59 AM
#701
I wouldn't doubt there are millions already with it. The rate celebs and sports players are testing positive all across the country without symptoms is kind of comical.
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03-21-2020, 07:09 AM
#702
Originally Posted by
Matt3467
Highly likely that people saying negative things about our country's response to the Chinese virus get their news from certain specific news outlets that are 24/7 critical of this President and his administration. I think he's done a fine job and to be honest I'm surprised we've been able to get anything done since literally everything the man wants to do is uniformly challenged by every democrat at all levels of government. I've never seen one side so out to get someone else in my life.
The Great Oppurdemic
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03-21-2020, 07:16 AM
#703
We tested around 35,000 people yesterday. A week ago we were testing about 5,000 per day. This is a good thing.
One thing to keep in mind as our testing capacity increases: the growth in the number of positive cases is not 100% indicative of the spread of the virus. It's a function of both the spread of the virus AND the increase in tests. I think the numbers will still be sobering though.
We do seem to be doing much better on our death rate than Italy, Spain, etc. It remains to be seen if that % will start to go up as the medical system gets stressed.
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03-21-2020, 07:34 AM
#704
I have also noticed a favorable trend in US death rate stat compared to others. I hope and pray it is significant, but I know it is early.
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03-21-2020, 07:35 AM
#705
Originally Posted by
Mjoelner34
The FDA has eased regulations and started fast-tracking test development. This company is waiting on a final batch of tests from South Korea to present their case to the FDA. Should happen in the next week or 2.
What I meant was it won't be available for months regardless. The peak will be hit before it's available. It'll be great in the future, but little help for this outbreak.
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03-21-2020, 08:28 AM
#706
Germany has 20K infections but very few deaths
https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-...d-da70cff6e4d3
They are testing 160K per day that’s x10 what South Korea did
Other interesting discovery in Germany is that their infected are much younger than Italy
Other personal thought is that if you survived Hitler, WW2, and Russian occupation as a baby - you are probably too tough to kill by a damn chinese cold
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03-21-2020, 08:44 AM
#707
Originally Posted by
dantheman4248
... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.
Speculation - the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
Yes TRENDS can be derived and predicted but they are still not always true. That number is certainly attainable. I don?t disagree but to act like it?s a guarantee and there is firm evidence to use this early is actually... speculating.
Originally Posted by
deadheaddawg
It is NOT pure speculation.
They may NOT be pure facts either. You are speculating just like I?m speculating. See how that works. But I damn sum at not claiming shit that can?t be proven right this second.
It?s a guess. There are too many variables for some of the numbers to not be off.
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03-21-2020, 08:57 AM
#708
Originally Posted by
Political Hack
Cruise ship population does not equate to general population. The most accurate estimates we have right now are not good. Most people still have no clue what they're about to witness across America.
Well, sure. But Italy's population doesn't equate to the USA's or Germany's or us to theirs. What you do have with the cruise ship is a closed, controlled population that tracks spread and mortality rate within that controlled population. You will never be able to better account for variables in large, uncontrolled populations while this virus is actively spreading (at least not for the first year probably). The cruise ship gives us a good snapshot and I think it's strong statistical numbers. It's some sobering stats. If 19% of Americans got this virus that is 57,000,000 people who could get this and if the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% that is 684,000. If it rises to 3% then you are looking at approximate 1.7 million deaths.
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03-21-2020, 09:51 AM
#709
Originally Posted by
The Federalist Engineer
Germany has 20K infections but very few deaths
https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-...d-da70cff6e4d3
They are testing 160K per day that?s x10 what South Korea did
Other interesting discovery in Germany is that their infected are much younger than Italy
Other personal thought is that if you survived Hitler, WW2, and Russian occupation as a baby - you are probably too tough to kill by a damn chinese cold
I was coming on here to ask what the difference is between Germany and Spain. Similar number of cases, but Spain is floating around 5.5% mortality and Germany is at 0.3%. Is it because Germany is catching more mild cases due to more testing? The only other thing I see off the top is that Germany has a critical care capacity that is similar to ours, while Spain's is even smaller than Italy. I would also guess that Germany has a higher quality medical system than Spain, but I have nothing to back that up.
ETA: Spain has 9.7 critical care units/100,000 people. So I assume I can say 97/1,000,000? and currently has 533 cases/1,000,000
Germany has 292 CCUs/1,000,000 and only 256 cases/1,000,000 with more prevalent testing by the sounds of things, which would make a lower % of the 256/mil severe.
So maybe Spain has blown past its critical care ability already and Germany is still under control.
Last edited by WeWonItAll(Most); 03-21-2020 at 10:07 AM.
Far Moorhead yaw
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03-21-2020, 10:00 AM
#710
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03-21-2020, 10:12 AM
#711
Originally Posted by
Dawgology
Well, sure. But Italy's population doesn't equate to the USA's or Germany's or us to theirs. What you do have with the cruise ship is a closed, controlled population that tracks spread and mortality rate within that controlled population. You will never be able to better account for variables in large, uncontrolled populations while this virus is actively spreading (at least not for the first year probably). The cruise ship gives us a good snapshot and I think it's strong statistical numbers. It's some sobering stats. If 19% of Americans got this virus that is 57,000,000 people who could get this and if the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% that is 684,000. If it rises to 3% then you are looking at approximate 1.7 million deaths.
If you are talking about the ship in Japan yes it is a controlled population. One thing though, have you ever been on an overseas cruise? The average age on those is usually over 70.
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03-21-2020, 10:20 AM
#712
Originally Posted by
hacker
140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.
They added some more data:
At least 24% hospitalized
48% of cases < 50 years old
Why do they stop there? What are the ages of the ones that are in hospital? Of the young (<50), what % are considered serious? Wish they'd release more
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03-21-2020, 10:49 AM
#713
This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894
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03-21-2020, 11:21 AM
#714
Originally Posted by
yjnkdawg
Good read. Thanks
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03-21-2020, 11:23 AM
#715
Originally Posted by
hacker
140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.
They added some more data:
At least 24% hospitalized
48% of cases < 50 years old
Expected increase with increased testing. And as has been said many more have it or have had it. Prolly has something to do with the increased percentage of 50+. Younger folks haven?t had to go to the dr with it as often.
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03-21-2020, 11:42 AM
#716
Originally Posted by
dantheman4248
... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.
Originally Posted by
yjnkdawg
Where are the cherry picked stats that only favor one side of the argument?***
Just kidding. Good read for sure.
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03-21-2020, 12:00 PM
#717
Originally Posted by
WeWonItAll(Most)
I was coming on here to ask what the difference is between Germany and Spain. Similar number of cases, but Spain is floating around 5.5% mortality and Germany is at 0.3%. Is it because Germany is catching more mild cases due to more testing? The only other thing I see off the top is that Germany has a critical care capacity that is similar to ours, while Spain's is even smaller than Italy. I would also guess that Germany has a higher quality medical system than Spain, but I have nothing to back that up.
ETA: Spain has 9.7 critical care units/100,000 people. So I assume I can say 97/1,000,000? and currently has 533 cases/1,000,000
Germany has 292 CCUs/1,000,000 and only 256 cases/1,000,000 with more prevalent testing by the sounds of things, which would make a lower % of the 256/mil severe.
So maybe Spain has blown past its critical care ability already and Germany is still under control.
Something very positive about the Germany approach is that testing so many, especially young bucks that would normally be symptomless carriers - takes potential super spreaders out of the equation.
Holding everything else constant- that’s an interesting wrinkle
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03-21-2020, 12:03 PM
#718
Originally Posted by
yjnkdawg
Fantastic article
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03-21-2020, 12:04 PM
#719
Originally Posted by
yjnkdawg
No prayers for that guy?s loved ones!*
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03-21-2020, 12:31 PM
#720
Originally Posted by
yjnkdawg
Really good read. I been thinking some of the same things written in this article, as I'm sure others have too. And anyone claiming absolute knowledge of all the wealth of data out there is a fool. Unless every single person is tested, there are not absolute stats.
And if the government really wanted to help folks while they ain't working, they would make a temp law to suspend loan/mortgage payments and interest on principle for a while. But they don't want the big bankers to have to survive on less than multi-million dollar bonuses each year. Those banks are still gonna expect those payments to be made up somehow ... I can guarantee you that.
In the meantime, 4 republican Senators and Feinstein got out of the market well in advance of the crash and made millions.
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