The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[dawgday166]

Very similar to those panicking and hoarding.

They afraid ... they very afraid.

[deadheaddawg]

Very similar to those panicking and hoarding.

Hoarders are awful.

What do you consider as panicking?

[dawgday166]

Hoarders are awful.

What do you consider as panicking?

You

[deadheaddawg]

Very similar to those panicking and hoarding.

You

Specifics?

Is it because I think there is a real chance we have hospitals bed shortages in places?

Is it because I think the potential for hundreds of thousands of deaths are possible?

Is it because I think the lock downs are needed ?

Which or all of those do you disagree with? What other points?

[dawgday166]

Specifics?

Is it because I think there is a real chance we have hospitals bed shortages in places?

Is it because I think the potential for hundreds of thousands of deaths are possible?

Is it because I think the lock downs are needed ?

Which or all of those do you disagree with? What other points?

Ain't got time. Just be afraid ... be very afraid.

[Joebob]

Is 20% the going rate for infected needing hospitalization and requiring ventilators?

Last I saw, this meant that if you got tested (i.e. if you were sick enough to go to the doctor), you had a 20% chance of needing to be hospitalized and put on a ventilator. That figure will probably change as more people are tested and more data comes in. How it relates to the number of people overall that contract the virus isn?t clear yet.

[SheltonChoked]

5% of Infected needed ventilators in China.

WHO data

The US won?t run out of machines. The US has many makers and many in warehouses at DME companies.

We are probably gonna end up with 500,000 extra units for Mexico and Canada when it?s all said and done.

Many of the US vulnerable already have a ventilator.

I need a cite for that because that is not what the health officials are saying...

https://projects.propublica.org/grap...ovid-hospitals
The latest study available estimates there are about 62,000 ventilators in hospitals nationwide....It's been "publicly stated," he says, that there are about 12,000 ventilators in the national stockpile.

So as long as we have less than 75,000 people needing ventilators, everything will be fine.

8% of Chinese cases needed a ventilator.

[deadheaddawg]

I need a cite for that because that is not what the health officials are saying...

https://projects.propublica.org/grap...ovid-hospitals
The latest study available estimates there are about 62,000 ventilators in hospitals nationwide....It's been "publicly stated," he says, that there are about 12,000 ventilators in the national stockpile.

So as long as we have less than 75,000 people needing ventilators, everything will be fine.

8% of Chinese cases needed a ventilator.

Obviously the ventilators will not be spread out to match the virus. Are we going to take ventilators from hospitals that aren't using them and ship them to another?

If so I think that hurts places like Mississippi. All our little hospital that might have them will have to send them to the big cities. .....so I hope nobody needs one from something else.

I think that is going to be the biggest issue. One area or city is going to be hit hard and run out of things. What happens at that individual hospital?

Does Jackson Mississippi have to send stuff to Seattle because it hit there first?

[Todd4State]

Obviously the ventilators will not be spread out to match the virus. Are we going to take ventilators from hospitals that aren't using them and ship them to another?

If so I think that hurts places like Mississippi. All our little hospital that might have them will have to send them to the big cities. .....so I hope nobody needs one from something else.

I think that is going to be the biggest issue. One area or city is going to be hit hard and run out of things. What happens at that individual hospital?

Does Jackson Mississippi have to send stuff to Seattle because it hit there first?

Ventilators are not uncommon even in small hospitals in Mississippi. Many of those small hospitals in Mississippi are going to either ship their patients to UMC, Region One in Memphis, or University Medical Center in NOLA, and maybe UAB. Transporting patients on vents are not uncommon. The army has transported soldiers on vents who were wounded in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and etc. and flown them to Germany on vents quite often. So driving from Kosciousko to Jackson on a vent isn't crazy out of the question.

The thing about UMC is for as long as UMC has existed they have been taking patients all across the state so this won't really be any different in that regard since that is essentially their patient base anyway.

Another thing I don't see a lot of is people taking into account people getting well and getting off of a ventilator or sadly passing away which will open up a ventilator for another patient who needs it as well. Anyway, my point is people that go on vents aren't going to stay on vents the entire duration of the epidemic.

[The Federalist Engineer]

I need a cite for that because that is not what the health officials are saying...

https://projects.propublica.org/grap...ovid-hospitals
The latest study available estimates there are about 62,000 ventilators in hospitals nationwide....It's been "publicly stated," he says, that there are about 12,000 ventilators in the national stockpile.

So as long as we have less than 75,000 people needing ventilators, everything will be fine.

8% of Chinese cases needed a ventilator.

5% and the Vast, Vast majority of infected were in Wuhan. Page 10 and 32 if you are a reader.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf

In the US, the COPD patients already have a respirator or other oxygen therapy device. WV, KY, and AL are the worst states for COPD.

[MrKotter]

Specifics?

Go read your post here and on SPS the last few days for your "specifics". You have thoroughly embarrassed yourself

[StateDawg44]

How many ventilators does och have? Golden triangle in general? If 20% of the infected require hospitalization (anyone that needs to be hooked to a ventilator, since otherwise you are sent home to quarantine and ride it out), how many infected in the golden triangle infected before the numbers indicate they'd be running out of ventilators and decisions on who gets a ventilator and who dies are being made?

Last I saw, this meant that if you got tested (i.e. if you were sick enough to go to the doctor), you had a 20% chance of needing to be hospitalized and put on a ventilator. That figure will probably change as more people are tested and more data comes in. How it relates to the number of people overall that contract the virus isn?t clear yet.

Ahhhh perfect example of misinformation and people not understanding what the hell is being said and then relaying it along. Hypothetical or not. This is no knock on you JoeBob. What you've said makes more sense.


But that's not what was originally insinuated, stemming my comment you quoted (original comment shown above). So now this topic has molded into a different conversation because people interpret things differently and then take it to the internet.

20% chance of needing to be hospitalized if you have the virus and 20% of the people infected needing to be hospitalized is not even remotely the same thing.

[msstate7]

Delete

[SheltonChoked]

5% and the Vast, Vast majority of infected were in Wuhan. Page 10 and 32 if you are a reader.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf

In the US, the COPD patients already have a respirator or other oxygen therapy device. WV, KY, and AL are the worst states for COPD.

And if we start Martial Law, and sending teams tracing down contacts to each case like China did in Wuhan, Then you have a point...

Some excerpts from the WHO Report...

As COVID-19 is a newly identified pathogen, there is no known pre-existing immunity in
humans. Based on the epidemiologic characteristics observed so far in China, everyone is
assumed to be susceptible, although there may be risk factors increasing susceptibility to
infection. This requires further study, as well as to know whether there is neutralising
immunity after infection

In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history

Achieving China?s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat. At a community level this is the reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.

Yep seems like the US can do this step****

Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to
implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China.
These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize
transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely
proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and
immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an
exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these
measures.

Now count those over 60 that don't have COPD? Because that who will need one of the 74,000 Ventilators in the USA.

There are 6 ventilators at OCH... working the math backwards, 25% of severe or critical cases need vents, (24 severe or critical cases) only 20% of cases are severe or critical (120 total cases), to get OCH to capacity, if none of the vents are being used....

[deadheaddawg]

Go read your post here and on SPS the last few days for your "specifics". You have thoroughly embarrassed yourself

nope. The people dismissing this are embarrassing. And truth be told I have zero respect for them. The writing has been on the wall. If you were still calling this an overreaction and blaming it on the media last Friday then you are legitimately stupid, dangerous, and gullible fool. There is zero excuse not to know what's going on. And that means you willfully ignored this. Which is embarrassing. And I dont really care what their opinion of me is. They are not the kind of people I want to like me.

Ive tried to be nicer here, because I think this board is a more intelligent and reasonable bunch. That other board is full of blathering idiots.

[Lariverdog]

ok since this is a message board, here is my 2 cents:

First, I have 36 years experience as a clinical laboratory director. 26 years at a large academic medical center/health system

While it seems the elderly and those with some conditions certainly are at higher risk, we will never know the true mortality because we will never have an accurate denominator. So anyone publishing mortality numbers is just an educated guess.

Regarding testing, I have my doubts about accuracy. While personally I have no direct knowledge of this specific test, I very seriously doubt (1) it is anywhere an easy assay to perform and (2) no way in hell can test kits come out this fast. The clinical laboratory setting nationwide is severely understaffed. Non trained folks CANNOT be expected to perform complex to highly complex clinical testing with accuracy. For 36 years, I had to deal with issues regarding simple stuff like POC (point of care blood glucose testing). Daily. So anyone other than very highly trained testing staff performing this, errors are going to be very high.

Lastly, my buds in the research side say a couple of things. First, they HOPE this will burn out as temps warm Historically coronaviruses do not handle heat and humidity. So unless this has mutated to something that can handle heat/humidity, that is our best bet for containment.

Also I'm hearing a vaccine is a total waste of time. They tried to develop corona vaccines 20 years ago but found they mutate so fast that it becomes a waste a time. Just like we don't have vaccines for the common cold.

I'll share anything if I hear from the research community or anything of value.

[msstate7]

How quickly are test results coming back in Mississippi?

[gtowndawg]

ok since this is a message board, here is my 2 cents:

First, I have 36 years experience as a clinical laboratory director. 26 years at a large academic medical center/health system

While it seems the elderly and those with some conditions certainly are at higher risk, we will never know the true mortality because we will never have an accurate denominator. So anyone publishing mortality numbers is just an educated guess.

Regarding testing, I have my doubts about accuracy. While personally I have no direct knowledge of this specific test, I very seriously doubt (1) it is anywhere an easy assay to perform and (2) no way in hell can test kits come out this fast. The clinical laboratory setting nationwide is severely understaffed. Non trained folks CANNOT be expected to perform complex to highly complex clinical testing with accuracy. For 36 years, I had to deal with issues regarding simple stuff like POC (point of care blood glucose testing). Daily. So anyone other than very highly trained testing staff performing this, errors are going to be very high.

Lastly, my buds in the research side say a couple of things. First, they HOPE this will burn out as temps warm Historically coronaviruses do not handle heat and humidity. So unless this has mutated to something that can handle heat/humidity, that is our best bet for containment.

Also I'm hearing a vaccine is a total waste of time. They tried to develop corona vaccines 20 years ago but found they mutate so fast that it becomes a waste a time. Just like we don't have vaccines for the common cold.

I'll share anything if I hear from the research community or anything of value.

Good stuff. Thanks.

[StateDawg44]

And if we start Martial Law, and sending teams tracing down contacts to each case like China did in Wuhan, Then you have a point...

Some excerpts from the WHO Report...



Yep seems like the US can do this step****



Now count those over 60 that don't have COPD? Because that who will need one of the 74,000 Ventilators in the USA.

There are 6 ventilators at OCH... working the math backwards, 25% of severe or critical cases need vents, (24 severe or critical cases) only 20% of cases are severe or critical (120 total cases), to get OCH to capacity, if none of the vents are being used....

Where did you get the info on the number of ventilators at OCH? I'm not saying it's not true. It's just a question.

Could you cite the bolded? Until this happens, you're only speaking hypothetically based on stats of a very very small and new sample.

It's possible yes, I'm not saying it's not. But you're acting as if we've lost the blueprint to how to make a new ventilator or that they are only made in one location and unable to move them.

[deadheaddawg]

I saw one hospital was able to use a 3D printer to print ventilator values and converted a single ventilator into one that could be used on multiple patients. So it might even be possible for some places to rig up the ones they have for more people.