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Originally Posted by
msstate7
Didn't think so. It would be interesting to know the contraction rate among the exposed group.
It would. I don't know if there is anyway to determine that yet.
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https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/...yEBb6M9nwEgbeA
Well we can do nothing and watching the numbers double for a month or so until we don't have anywhere to put the folks that actually need treatment. Either we are "overreacting" when it's not a worst case scenario (probably because of "overreacting"), or we half ass it and by the time we realize we have to do something there's not shit we can do. Does anyone know the "right" amount of actions that should be taken right now to keep everything for going to shit like in Italy? Should we err on the side of caution or be relaxed about it? In a couple months if we can keep shit from getting out of hand, does that mean we reacted the right amount or did we overreact and it wouldn't have been any better or worse if we'd just let 40K people into domes to watch basketball games?
Last edited by dawgs; 03-11-2020 at 05:40 PM.
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Originally Posted by
Liverpooldawg
It would. I don't know if there is anyway to determine that yet.
That's another thing, the doctors that do this shit for a career don't have the data available yet to know all this, which makes it even more important to try and slow it down to allow the research to catch up a bit.
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Originally Posted by
dawgs
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/...yEBb6M9nwEgbeA
Well we can do nothing and watching the numbers double for a month or so until we don't have anywhere to put the folks that actually need treatment. Either we are "overreacting" when it's not a worst case scenario (probably because of "overreacting"), or we half ass it and by the time we realize we have to do something there's not shit we can do. Does anyone know the "right" amount of actions that should be taken right now to keep everything for going to shit like in Italy? Should we err on the side of caution or be relaxed about it? In a couple months if we can keep shit from getting out of hand, does that mean we reacted the right amount or did we overreact and it wouldn't have been any better or worse if we'd just let 40K people into domes to watch basketball games?
I'm all for trying to prevent spread; I have no problem with canceling attendance to sporting events. I just think the 40-70% contraction of world population isn't based on anything but trying to scare
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The media is probably getting false info from health experts that don't really know themselves.
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Originally Posted by
msstate7
I'm all for trying to prevent spread; I have no problem with canceling attendance to sporting events. I just think the 40-70% contraction of world population isn't based on anything but trying to scare
Is a common range From a variety of experts using data and modeling. Keep in mind that a lot of folks can contract it and be a carrier with little to no symptoms. Most will just feel like they have a bad cold or the flu for a couple days and be fine. so it's unlikely that a majority of folks will require hospital care, but we don't need a lot of the folks that do contract it to need hospital care before we are ****ed.
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Originally Posted by
ScoobaDawg
You should read more reports... the amount of people in America is doubling every day now. This crap about it being less deadly than the common flu is just dumb. Just now, Italy just reported 200 people died in the past 24 hours.
I never said less deadly I said less contagious. Those are two drastically different things.
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Originally Posted by
msstate7
Obviously the death rate is much higher with corona than flu, but wouldn't you have to figure in how likely you are to get it to determine which is more deadly? Flu seems to be much easier to get [34,000,000 - 49,000,000 cases since last October (CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm )]. So if you are much more likely to get one with a much lower death rate, it could still be more deadly then, right? Maybe I'm just looking at this from the wrong perspective.
I'm kinda with you. How many cases is China reporting? If this stuff spread like the flu, China of all places should have millions contracting this stuff with their dense, high populations.
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Originally Posted by
Bdawg
I'm kinda with you. How many cases is China reporting? If this stuff spread like the flu, China of all places should have millions contracting this stuff with their dense, high populations.
They didn't lock down the whole country either.
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You guys are right. It's time to ****ing panic. I'm going to go home and wrap myself in toilet paper and douse myself in bottled water and antibacterial soap. See ya'll on the other side, mother****ers!!
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Originally Posted by
Bdawg
I'm kinda with you. How many cases is China reporting? If this stuff spread like the flu, China of all places should have millions contracting this stuff with their dense, high populations.
10 of millions. Flu has an R0 value of like 1.3 and early reports are that Corona had an R0 value of something like 2.5 (almost double). There have been 15 million cases of the flu reported since January. We should be seeing approximately 28 million cases of Covid-19 by now if that R0 value is correct.
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Originally Posted by
RocketDawg
Perhaps - one good thing about baseball is that it's played outside. That may or may not make any difference in the proliferation of the virus.
Just to be on the safe side, it might be wise to stop shaking hands when you meet someone.
Ncaa is going to shut down baseball. Book it. Attending that is.
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Complete media hysteria.
If it bleeds, it leads.
So stupid!
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Originally Posted by
TXDawg
Complete media hysteria.
If it bleeds, it leads.
So stupid!
The country's leading expert on infectious disease, and the head of the Trump/Pence C-19 response team, disagrees with you, btw......
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Originally Posted by
Dawgology
10 of millions. Flu has an R0 value of like 1.3 and early reports are that Corona had an R0 value of something like 2.5 (almost double). There have been 15 million cases of the flu reported since January. We should be seeing approximately 28 million cases of Covid-19 by now if that R0 value is correct.
What I think you’re missing is that this strain of the flu has been around for a year or two (remember, it takes 18 months to make a vaccine). Covid-19 has only been around two and a half months.
There's someone in my head but its not me.
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With a lot of unknowns still about the virus the only way known (and they may not know this 100%) to keep it from spreading is to avoid contact with people who have the virus. I have no problem erring on the side of caution. I've had the flu a few times and survived each time and also been immunized so I don't really worry that much about it but I've never had this virus so I don't know what to expect if I contract it so there's a little bit of fear. I'm supposed to fly, with a layover in Atlanta, on Monday so it's big time on my mind.
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If things continue the way they're going the economic repercussions are going to be devastating. It's frightening.
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Just FWIW, a lot of people that think this is overhyped are missing the fact that this virus really hits people with co-morbidities (cancer treatment, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.). There are a LOT of people in that group. Personally, I’ve had a kidney transplant and have a suppressed immune system, so this is scary as hell for me. Especially since there are so many people that are taking this lightly and probably won’t take the proper precautions to help prevent spread.
There's someone in my head but its not me.
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Originally Posted by
Joebob
Especially since there are so many people that are taking this lightly and probably won’t take the proper precautions to help prevent spread.
This^^^
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Originally Posted by
BeardoMSU
Italy is definitely part of the conspiracy**
Italy in Lombardy and Veneto - and basically everywhere else in Italia - is kind of nasty. They don?t use a substance called ?hot? water. Or always wash glasses they give tourists. They hate the tourist that visit them, especially the Asians
In Venice, It?s not racism, or hidden...they tell you. But ladies love Venice regardless, floating down a sewer is romantic
I probably got jaded by visiting Italy too much, for work. I don?t eat much until I get to Spain or Belgium or a nice place in the itinerary.
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