Poll - chance that State covers - 20.5

[Johnson85]

70% we cover.

The line looks stupid to me, and usually when that happens this late in the season, it ends up being a sucker bet.

I'm still going to put my money on Bama to cover; -28 or -30 seem more reasonable to me than -19. But I'm only doing that because I refuse to learn my lesson. If I would learn my lesson, I would recognize that if the line looks that off from what I think it should be, it's because I don't understand something and I should just stay away.

[cheewgumm]

Johnson85, I feel EXACTLY the same but I?m gonna bet it. I think they are going to beat us badly. I?ve seen this movie many many many times.

[msstate7]

The line looks stupid to me, and usually when that happens this late in the season, it ends up being a sucker bet.

I'm still going to put my money on Bama to cover; -28 or -30 seem more reasonable to me than -19. But I'm only doing that because I refuse to learn my lesson. If I would learn my lesson, I would recognize that if the line looks that off from what I think it should be, it's because I don't understand something and I should just stay away.

We've had a lot of stupid lines all year imo. I thought auburn, aTm, and LSU were free money, but I don't bet against us for some stupid reason. We did come close to beating spread against LSU though bc we score some after games are decided.

[Johnson85]

Alabama after a loss since 2008:
2008 L 31-17 vs. Utah
2010 W 23-10 vs. Ole Miss
2010 W 30-10 vs. MSU
2010 W 49-7 vs. fakeMSU
2011 W 24-7 @ MSU
2012 W 49-0 vs. Western Carolina
2013 L 45-31 vs. OU
2014 W 14-13 @ Arkansas
2015 W 34-0 vs. ULM
2017 W 24-6 vs Clemson

All that to say they've never beaten an sec team by 20.5 or more the week after a loss since Saban has been in charge there. (didn't count 2007 as they had 6 losses and didn't want to skew what actual Saban teams look like by adding 4 more losses after a loss.)

So, they've failed to do that in 4 opportunities over the past eleven years? Sounds kind of like leading the team in 7th inning doubles in the month of May.

Two of those opportunities were in 2010, when they lost 3 regular season games, which is the only time they done that at Alabama other than his first year (and he hasn't lost 3 even including the post season any other year). I'm thinking maybe 2010 Alabama just wasn't that good compared to Saban's other Bama teams.

2011 was the 9-6 game, just a different level of physicality than this past week, and a much lower scoring Bama team in general.

[Johnson85]

Johnson85, I feel EXACTLY the same but I?m gonna bet it. I think they are going to beat us badly. I?ve seen this movie many many many times.

Cheers to continued stupidity! We can come back here and lick our wounds after MSU inexplicably plays hard and keeps it "close", before getting a 4th quarter garbage TD to only lose by 18.

[msstate7]

Cheers to continued stupidity! We can come back here and lick our wounds after MSU inexplicably plays hard and keeps it "close", before getting a 4th quarter garbage TD to only lose by 18.

It's Bama -20.5 at golden moon if you want an extra 1.5 points

[dantheman4248]

So, they've failed to do that in 4 opportunities over the past eleven years? Sounds kind of like leading the team in 7th inning doubles in the month of May.

Two of those opportunities were in 2010, when they lost 3 regular season games, which is the only time they done that at Alabama other than his first year (and he hasn't lost 3 even including the post season any other year). I'm thinking maybe 2010 Alabama just wasn't that good compared to Saban's other Bama teams.

2011 was the 9-6 game, just a different level of physicality than this past week, and a much lower scoring Bama team in general.

It's really to counterpoint the narrative that Bama comes out after a loss and blows people out to impress the committee. They haven't had an impressive blowout win immediately following a loss. Especially not when in playoff contention.

[Johnson85]

It's really to counterpoint the narrative that Bama comes out after a loss and blows people out to impress the committee. They haven't had an impressive blowout win immediately following a loss. Especially not when in playoff contention.

That probably is an overblown point, but at the same time, I'm not sure Bama teams prior to the last couple of years were really built to do that. Being more dialed in after a blowout would probably be their defense tightening up and their offense being more efficient in the running game. This year and last are probably the first years they've really been set up as a team where being dialed in would be more likely to end up in the offense unloading.

[Memphisbulldog]

6%

You guys do understand don't you that the definition of a point spread put out by Vegas is that half of the people will bet on each side of the bet. I know Vegas is not always right but they have to average being right to make a profit. They need half the people to bet each side so that they are not taking a risk; that they are only making the percentage built in. That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%. Those of you saying it will much less either are very pessimistic or don't know how the betting line works. I don't have an opinion of which side is the best best. I'm just clarifying this for all.

[Cowbell]

Johnson85, I feel EXACTLY the same but I?m gonna bet it. I think they are going to beat us badly. I?ve seen this movie many many many times.

And you will again if we keep Joe

[msstate7]

We've faced 7 teams this year with a record at .500 or better. Of those 7 teams, we're 1-6 ATS (usm is the only win). We've faced 2 teams with a record below .500. We're 2-0 ATS in those games. What's bama's record?

[cheewgumm]

You guys do understand don't you that the definition of a point spread put out by Vegas is that half of the people will bet on each side of the bet. I know Vegas is not always right but they have to average being right to make a profit. They need half the people to bet each side so that they are not taking a risk; that they are only making the percentage built in. That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%. Those of you saying it will much less either are very pessimistic or don't know how the betting line works. I don't have an opinion of which side is the best best. I'm just clarifying this for all.

Hey Menphisbulldog, I do understand that. I don't think that because 50% of the people bet that we will cover means that it has a 50% chance of happening as you outline (if that is what you mean by "That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%"). It just mean that 50% of the people "think" it will happen. I think this line reprents an opportunity when the line is wrong and you can take advantage. However, I could be wrong. WE'll see on Saturday. I bet on it.

[Fader21]

Not only are we going to cover. We are going to win!

[Cowbell]

What are the odds on this thread getting bumped before joe has his post game presser?

[cheewgumm]

The TutuorGate people are NOT playing, so, no Willie Gay or Autry.

Ha, it may get bumped. If I'm wrong, its ok. I don't bet a lot of $.

[Okrastar1]

2% 47-17 Bammers

[Johnson85]

You guys do understand don't you that the definition of a point spread put out by Vegas is that half of the people will bet on each side of the bet. I know Vegas is not always right but they have to average being right to make a profit. They need half the people to bet each side so that they are not taking a risk; that they are only making the percentage built in. That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%. Those of you saying it will much less either are very pessimistic or don't know how the betting line works. I don't have an opinion of which side is the best best. I'm just clarifying this for all.

the spread that 50% of people think we will cover (or really, that 50% of the money thinks we will cover) does not equal the spread that we have a 50% chance of covering.

There are enough smart and motivated and well financed people betting that they will usually be close, especially this late in the season, but they're not the same thing. I assume that a lot of money is looking at some model or some statistics that would indicate that we are much better positioned for this game than it would appear to the casual viewer, but it is hard to guess what it is.

[Coach34]

We had 6 points vs LSU with 3 minutes left in the 4th Q.

I dont think we cover whether Tua plays or not

[dantheman4248]

We had 6 points vs LSU with 3 minutes left in the 4th Q.

I dont think we cover whether Tua plays or not

Are you saying Bama's D is better than LSU?

[Mjoelner34]

If Tua plays, 0%. 55-10.

If Tua doesn't play, 0%. 41-10.