I noticed on the prediction thread that a few

[TrapGame]

think we are gonna lose to Tennessee. I thought this would be an interesting conversation and I didn't want to high jack Scooba's thread.

Okay fellas show me your work. How?

Pruitt is the head coach and they have been hit with injuries, arrests and attrition. The only thing, and I mean the only thing, in Tennessee's favor is home field advantage. And that's not enough.

[ScoobaDawg]

Thanks.. and I'm interested to hear that also.

[msstate7]

I didn't predict wins/losses in that thread, but an impartial metric has it tenn 52.8%

[TrapGame]

I didn't predict wins/losses in that thread, but an impartial metric has it tenn 52.8%

Are those metrics revised after every game? If so that would interesting to see the shifts leading up to the game.

[Covercorner2]

think we are gonna lose to Tennessee. I thought this would be an interesting conversation and I didn't want to high jack Scooba's thread.

Okay fellas show me your work. How?

Pruitt is the head coach and they have been hit with injuries, arrests and attrition. The only thing, and I mean the only thing, in Tennessee's favor is home field advantage. And that's not enough.

https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f...-130-cfb-teams

This is usually pretty accurate and has us as an .5-1 point favorite. I think we will beat them, but most metrics have it close for whatever reason....

[CadaverDawg]

Mine is based more off of our unknowns than Tennessee's knowns.

- Is Tommy Stevens going to be solid? We think, but who knows

- Is Joe going to get the offense rolling or is it going to be stagnant like last year?

- How will the suspensions affect us in that game?

- Road games in tough SEC environments aren't easy. Especially with a first year QB and an unproven coach. Home field matters.

I actually think we lose to either Ark or Tenn, and I picked Tenn bc I think Pruitt > Morris

Maybe I'm wrong and we win both...I hope so, and could definitely see it happening. But I think too many of our fans are acting like we know what we're going to get when our QB and our coach are complete question marks going into this season. We THINK we know, but until we see it, how are we so far ahead of Tennessee? Again, I hope we are, and think we can be....but I also was alive during last season, so to act like a road SEC win is a given is not something I'm going to do until Joe shows me consistency and less stubbornness.

But that's just me

[msstate7]

Are those metrics revised after every game? If so that would interesting to see the shifts leading up to the game.

Yes, every game

[Bothrops]

We have the offense to win, but I'm worried about or defense a little, mainly late in games. For us to win, we have to want to win worse than the other team.

[ScoobaDawg]

Mine is based more off of our unknowns than Tennessee's knowns.

- Is Tommy Stevens going to be solid? We think, but who knows

- Is Joe going to get the offense rolling or is it going to be stagnant like last year?

- How will the suspensions affect us in that game?

- Road games in tough SEC environments aren't easy. Especially with a first year QB and an unproven coach. Home field matters.

I actually think we lose to either Ark or Tenn, and I picked Tenn bc I think Pruitt > Morris

Maybe I'm wrong and we win both...I hope so, and could definitely see it happening. But I think too many of our fans are acting like we know what we're going to get when our QB and our coach are complete question marks going into this season. We THINK we know, but until we see it, how are we so far ahead of Tennessee? Again, I hope we are, and think we can be....but I also was alive during last season, so to act like a road SEC win is a given is not something I'm going to do until Joe shows me consistency and less stubbornness.

But that's just me

I can understand that.. and would agree more likely to lose to UT instead of god awful Arkansas. But I don't see us falling that far. If we lose more than 3 (Bama, 2 of 3 LSU, AU, TX AM)... it would be us losing those 4 i think.

Either way.. will give some interesting things for us to talk about mid season.

[Tbonewannabe]

Mine is based more off of our unknowns than Tennessee's knowns.

- Is Tommy Stevens going to be solid? We think, but who knows

- Is Joe going to get the offense rolling or is it going to be stagnant like last year?

- How will the suspensions affect us in that game?

- Road games in tough SEC environments aren't easy. Especially with a first year QB and an unproven coach. Home field matters.

I actually think we lose to either Ark or Tenn, and I picked Tenn bc I think Pruitt > Morris

Maybe I'm wrong and we win both...I hope so, and could definitely see it happening. But I think too many of our fans are acting like we know what we're going to get when our QB and our coach are complete question marks going into this season. We THINK we know, but until we see it, how are we so far ahead of Tennessee? Again, I hope we are, and think we can be....but I also was alive during last season, so to act like a road SEC win is a given is not something I'm going to do until Joe shows me consistency and less stubbornness.

But that's just me

I will be disappointed if we lose to Ark. I don't see how Ark can fix that defense in one year. It isn't like they have a lot of high level talent and the DC shit the bed like Sirmon. It should take them a couple of years to get a top 25 type defense at least.

[chef dixon]

They have talent and its on the road. Its not that complicated

[dantheman4248]

I didn't predict wins/losses in that thread, but an impartial metric has it tenn 52.8%

Should note, it's a metric that over values all sec teams consistently and thinks SEC Home game is worth more than it really is. For instance that metric gives MSU a 22.2% to beat Alabama this year. 22.2% chance to beat Alabama and only 47.8% chance to beat Tennessee don't mesh imo. There's a greater divide in those two teams that the difference in home field doesn't cover.

[Johnson85]

think we are gonna lose to Tennessee. I thought this would be an interesting conversation and I didn't want to high jack Scooba's thread.

Okay fellas show me your work. How?

Pruitt is the head coach and they have been hit with injuries, arrests and attrition. The only thing, and I mean the only thing, in Tennessee's favor is home field advantage. And that's not enough.

There are two arguments I can make that I don't really agree with but that I think are at least reasonable.

One argument is that Pruitt walked into a complete shit show while Moorhead walked into a great situation. If you believe Pruitt is a good coach, they are probably about to make a big jump with him in his second year, whereas it's less clear that State is even going to maintain compared to last year.

Looking at common opponents last year:

• we both beat Auburn, but they beat them at Auburn.
• They beat UK solidly, we got killed. We lost to UF in a competitive game, but were shutdown.
• They lost to UF in a non-competitive game, but at least scored three touchdowns.
• We both lost to Bama in non-competitive games, but they at least scored.

The only strong argument I have against this is that they got smoked by a weak Vandy team in the last game of the season, so it's not like they showed steady improvement.

A second similar argument is that UT has been recruiting at or above our level for the past four years. They haven't sucked because the recruiting rankings were wrong, but because they had culture and coaching issues that screwed them up, and even if Pruitt is just a so-so head coach and you are a believer in Moorhead, Pruitt has had a season now to address the culture problems and they should play up to their talent level now, and between that and getting us at home, that makes them the favorite.

For myself, I think that UT doesn't just have culture issues and that we should be favorites, with our only risk being that we will be on the road. But when I look at common opponents last year, it give me pause.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Home field advantage generally swings a line 3 pts either way. So with all of our unknowns at the moment I think us a 1 pt favorite is probably pretty accurate.

[TrapGame]

They have talent and its on the road. Its not that complicated

On the road, yes. Talent, they're missing some pieces. And, probably most important, their head coach is a retard.

[confucius say]

They have talent and its on the road. Its not that complicated

Which is why I don?t understand why our fans, largely, are not giving us a chance against LSU.

[dantheman4248]

Which is why I don?t understand why our fans, largely, are not giving us a chance against LSU.

Because some people use whatever metric they need to fit their narrative that week.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Another potential argument in Tennessee's favor is returning production. As of earlier this spring, they have the second-most returning production in the country. I know they've lost a bunch of back-up offensive linemen and then there's the LB who was arrested on a misdemeanor domestic assault charges recently. But unless those losses (or others I haven't heard about) result in a huge dip, they still return over 80% of their production from last year. Why does that matter? From the returning-production article I linked above:

Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production based on these calculations; 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points.

Last year's top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved.

(Woo hoo to being an exception that proved the rule last year, y'all!)

So based on that, there's a very good chance that Tennessee improves this season and a decent chance that they improve substantially. Unless I'm misunderstanding Bill C.'s math, the eight teams last year outside of the two MSUs that returned 80% or more averaged over three more wins each compared to the prior year. That's pretty impressive.

All that said, UT finished last year with a thud and are breaking in new coordinators.

Oh, and I dislike their team immensely. So there's that, too.

Man, I hope we win that game . . . .

[Lord McBuckethead]

Home field advantage generally swings a line 3 pts either way. So with all of our unknowns at the moment I think us a 1 pt favorite is probably pretty accurate.

depends on the day. Depends on the mentality of your players as well. Do they have the killer instinct and can they ratchet it up in a hostile environment?

[Jarius]

I didn't predict wins/losses in that thread, but an impartial metric has it tenn 52.8%

Another impartial metric (the one that there entire sports universe uses) will have us favored to win the game on the road.