THE 2020 MSU Football Recruiting Talk Thread

[Pipedream]

I guess Reed is the kid that committed to OM... ?
Not only will I bet you Dean has a better college career than that kid, but I bet he doesn’t even end up at OM.
And yeah I’m a Smart mother ****er.

You smart enough to know how to read? I didn't make a definitive stance on Reed vs. Dean bc I honestly don't know. You, and people like you, list off offers from places a kid couldn't commit to. If UGA and Bama were willing to take Dean then why in the blue hell would his final 2 be State and South Carolina? Because those were camp offers. And all offers aren't created equally. But the smart MFers don't know that apparently.

[MetEdDawg]

Again, you may be completely right. This isn't about Dean though.

This is about us only having 1 4 star commit when it's pretty well established that you've got to have around 10 4 stars in each recruiting class to compete

It's June

[ShotgunDawg]

That's the whole point. The rankings matter because the good teams offer the higher ranked kids and the high ranked kids have good offers. The reason you don't see many 3 stars with Alabama offers is because they have Alabama offers. They get bumped to 4 stars because of them being elite. We all bitch when we say "had they committed to Bama they would get a bump to a 4 star". Why do you think we say that? Because OFFERS matter and rankings almost always reflect offers.

In some cases you are correct. Yes offers equal rankings.

However, what you must also realize is that there is a rankings model in which 247 simply plugs in the height, weight, position, size projection, speed, cone drill, & wing span, & the model spits out a range of where this player's natural ability should be ranked.

It's far far far more scientific than you think. Obviously quarterback & some skill positions like WR are a little more difficult to nail for the recruiting services, but most positions are not.

[ShotgunDawg]

It's June

Oh goodness. Don't bring that garbage here.

We've got 19 commits. Most of the hay is in the barn buddy.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Ok. I just realized that we only have 1 4 star commitment & every SEC West team that has won the division over the past 20 or so years has about 50% 4 & 5 stars on their roster.

Do you dispute this fact?

Well most of those divisions titles are to one team so I reckon we are all sucking ass in recruiting if you wanna put it that way. If you are hinging your MSU football recruiting happiness level on that system you will never be satisfied. Even if Dabo comes here you will still be in this thread bitching up a storm.

There is no difference in a class ranked 15 and one ranked 20. Or 20 and 25.

[ShotgunDawg]

Well most of those divisions titles are to one team so I reckon we are all sucking ass in recruiting if you wanna put it that way. If you are hinging your MSU football recruiting happiness level on that system you will never be satisfied. Even if Dabo comes here you will still be in this thread bitching up a storm.

There is no difference in a class ranked 15 and one ranked 20. Or 20 and 25.

Go to bed. It's getting late for you.

[ShotgunDawg]

Hopefully this will be 2 4 stars. Then we'll be 20% of the way to where we NEED to be.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Dill_7k/status/1141059796268961792[/tweet]

[Ari Gold]

You'll get your ass kicked about 80 times per the numbers. The team with the higher recruiting ranking beats teams with lower recruiting rankings 80% of the time straight up. That's a researched statistic for the genius who said we should do our research. It takes no research to just shout "offers! look at the offers!". Offers are abstract. They are not always the same. Rankings have become scientific. They matter and mean something in concert with winning. If you people don't get that by now or are turning a blind eye to it then you will be stuck having this same dumbass argument every year wondering why we aren't getting better.

You take your 85 players with offers from OM and UK and have Tom Lunginbil and J.C. Sherbet or what ever their names are and have them coach them since they are the ones that have them rated.
And I will take my 85 3 star players with offers from Bama and UGA and let Saban and Kirby coach them , because that is who they wanted
Neither is an exact science but I will trust coaches over so called recruiting gurus

Me , nor IYOK has never said taking more higher ranked players won’t help a program
Shit I would love to sign 28 4star guys every year

The things we have been saying that falls on deaf years is this:
This staff works hardener and puts more emphasis on recruiting than Dan and his staff did
This staff works outside the state of Miss and our contort recruiting zone better than Dan and his state did
The rating system on 3 and 4 star players isn’t an exact science. By saying that I ( can’t speak for IYOK ) would take a 3 star guy with a better offer sheet than a 4 star guy with less offers. So I trust coaches more than the so called experts

[BuckyIsAB****]

What QB do we have that is worth a damn?

I'd take Florida's QB situation over our right now.

I wouldnt take Franks over Stevens. Franks is Chris Relf. Maybe a little better passer but not by much. Are you really going to sit here and act like UF has had a good QB since Mullen left them??? UF went years after Tebow not pissing a drop on offense. Will Grier was the best one and he got kicked out. UF signed 4 and 5 star QB by the boatload. Nick Fitzgerald and Dak had better careers than all of them. And more wins. Same thing has happened at Texas, Michigan, even A&M to an extent except for Manziel.

[Pipedream]

That's the whole point. The rankings matter because the good teams offer the higher ranked kids and the high ranked kids have good offers. The reason you don't see many 3 stars with Alabama offers is because they have Alabama offers. They get bumped to 4 stars because of them being elite. We all bitch when we say "had they committed to Bama they would get a bump to a 4 star". Why do you think we say that? Because OFFERS matter and rankings almost always reflect offers.

Not gonna argue that that doesn't happen, but there's about 300 other blue chip kids on the planet that this has absolutely nothing to do with. And countless games involving kids that don't have any Bama offers that show how effective recruiting rankings are in being predictive of outcomes. Then there's the draft where a players ability to get drafted drops monumentally as you go down the star ladder. I just don't understand why people either just don't want to hear the facts or wrestle with them. Either way the info is out there.

[MetEdDawg]

Oh goodness. Don't bring that garbage here.

We've got 19 commits. Most of the hay is in the barn buddy.

There's at least 2 that won't be in this class. And like I said. It's June. Lot of stuff left to do on the football field and in the classroom as well before signing day.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Go to bed. It's getting late for you.

Yes expand more on this vast knowledge of recruiting you have I am just dying to hear you tell me how a percent of a percent on 247 composite rankings makes one class better than the other. Then bitch up a storm about it for months on end. We consistently win more ball games than the teams that recruit around us (15-25 range). You are a professional melter when it comes to our football team man.

[Ari Gold]

Enough of this bullshit let’s get back to our players at hand and don’t be bringing any OM rebel commits over here that we aren’t even recruiting .. I don’t care if they are a 2 star form Noxapater or a 5 star from Mater Dei High
Also Some of you need to put to rest the I hate Joe Moorhead banners and get on board with this coach and staff.

[Pipedream]

You take your 85 players with offers from OM and UK and have Tom Lunginbil and J.C. Sherbet or what ever their names are and have them coach them since they are the ones that have them rated.
And I will take my 85 3 star players with offers from Bama and UGA and let Saban and Kirby coach them , because that is who they wanted
Neither is an exact science but I will trust coaches over so called recruiting gurus

Me , nor IYOK has never said taking more higher ranked players won’t help a program
Shit I would love to sign 28 4star guys every year

The things we have been saying that falls on deaf years is this:
This staff works hardener and puts more emphasis on recruiting than Dan and his staff did
This staff works outside the state of Miss and our contort recruiting zone better than Dan and his state did
The rating system on 3 and 4 star players isn’t an exact science. By saying that I ( can’t speak for IYOK ) would take a 3 star guy with a better offer sheet than a 4 star guy with less offers. So I trust coaches more than the so called experts

I don't really give a damn who their offers are from. This is the same thing that happened in Moneyball. People who shout out offers and tape are the equivalent of the old school scouts who were holding on to the past like dinosaurs while the nerds did the homework and created the edge that now the majority of baseball and basketball use as their managing style of talent acquisition (soon to be all of the NFL too). I'll take the higher rated player all day every single day. And I will win if coaching is even remotely even. It's not an exact science, but it's the most exact science available. Start talking to people about film and offers and then you dive off into arbitrary characteristics that have no tangible meaning. Anyone can debate film or what offer is a real vs fake offer. It's really not all that hard to grasp if you know how a calculator functions.

[BuckyIsAB****]

In some cases you are correct. Yes offers equal rankings.

However, what you must also realize is that there is a rankings model in which 247 simply plugs in the height, weight, position, size projection, speed, cone drill, & wing span, & the model spits out a range of where this player's natural ability should be ranked.

It's far far far more scientific than you think. Obviously quarterback & some skill positions like WR are a little more difficult to nail for the recruiting services, but most positions are not.

If thats the case then lets just go tell Moorhead and crew to hire those guys and do the evaulations for them and we can save them all the time. There's a reason no coaches give a flying shit about the rankings. The only people that do are the ones that want to have a dick measuring contest in June and on signing day

[Ari Gold]

Again, you may be completely right. This isn't about Dean though.

This is about us only having 1 4 star commit when it's pretty well established that you've got to have around 10 4 stars in each recruiting class to compete

Some of these guys will move up. Half of this ranking bullshit is based on 7-7 ..
Cross was a 3 to begin
Chris jones was a 3
We will prob end up about like we also do 6-7 4 star high school guys and the jucos
For that matter Sweat and Abram both ended as 3?s in juco.. you think those were 3 star players???

Just chill out. Enjoy the good news coming ..

[Ifyouonlyknew]

This thread has gone off the rails so I'll just post this & let the back & forth continue. On signing I expect MSU to sign between 7-10 4* or better recruits.

[msstate7]

This thread has gone off the rails so I'll just post this & let the back & forth continue. On signing I expect MSU to sign between 7-10 4* or better recruits.

That's adding at least 6 (or jumps) and we have 19 commits at the moment. I don't even pretend to know the recruiting circuit as well as you, but I do think that's a very rosy outlook. I'd feel comfortable taking the under on 7 4-stars

[Pipedream]

That's adding at least 6 (or jumps) and we have 19 commits at the moment. I don't even pretend to know the recruiting circuit as well as you, but I do think that's a very rosy outlook. I'd feel comfortable taking the under on 7 4-stars

I think 7 is a good O/U for this year-Marks is on the list.
Dean and Brown have a strong chance to be 4*s before it is all said and done due to exposure.
Tea leaves read pretty strong for us to land Dillon Johnson and Tulu.
I think Heath is going to be a 4*, definitely had the pedigree. Most think we lead there, but I'm a little concerned he remains uncommited. Jordan Davis is a 4* and we are in the thick of it there.
I think we are definitely in the game for Xavier Hill and he is going to end up being a 4*.Same goes for Eason who is already a 4*. Selmon could get a bump back to 4*s if he's healthy and improves this season.
That's 10 guys right there. Wouldn't be shocked if one of the JuCo DL we have committed shows out this fall and gets re-ranked. The guys are out there to get to that number. A lot of it is going to depend on how we look this year.

[ShotgunDawg]

This thread has gone off the rails so I'll just post this & let the back & forth continue. On signing I expect MSU to sign between 7-10 4* or better recruits.

And I'll be happy if that's the case. That would mean we are on pace to compete.

And fwiw, I don't think the thread went off the rails at all. I think this is a very very worthy discussion.

We come to message boards to discuss and debate. Not just read a commit list