Miami vs Central Michigan (Sunday game)

[CadaverDawg]

Miami is throwing their Ace, Van Bell. So worst case scenario it's Plumlee vs their #3....best case, it's Plumlee vs CMU's #4.

Either way, we are in a good spot. Let's hope CMU wins a long, pitcher consuming game.

ETA: 1 of Their message boards is reporting they are starting their Ace, but their other boards are still hoping they start their #4 guy and save Van Bell for us. I can't imagine their coach would be that dumb....you can't risk exiting the Regional without your Ace throwing a single pitch. Would be hilarious if they saved Van Bell and lost to CMU.

[DownwardDawg]

Miami is throwing their Ace, Van Bell. So worst case scenario it's Plumlee vs their #3....best case, it's Plumlee vs CMU's #4.

Either way, we are in a good spot. Let's hope CMU wins a long, pitcher consuming game.

ETA: 1 of Their message boards is reporting they are starting their Ace, but their other boards are still hoping they start their #4 guy and save Van Bell for us. I can't imagine their coach would be that dumb....you can't risk exiting the Regional without your Ace throwing a single pitch. Would be hilarious if they saved Van Bell and lost to CMU.

That would be awesome if they throw their ace and lose. Best case scenario.

[chef dixon]

CMU will light up their #4

[GreenheadDawg]

That would be extremely dumb to risk losing today while your ace is sitting on his ass. Surely he’s not that dumb.

[WSOPdawg]

CMU will light up their #4

Agree, CMU has too much offensive firepower for Miami to take a chance and NOT throw their ace.

[Quaoarsking]

If Miami pitches their best pitcher against CMU, they have virtually no chance to win the Regional, but they probably will get 2nd. So it boils down to are you willing to risk coming in 3rd to have a shot to win the Regional, or would you rather just claim 2nd and get it?

[yjnkdawg]

I can't see their coach not starting their ace today. When you already have one loss in a double elimination tourney, you have to look at what pitching option gives you the best chance of winning the next game.

[TNDawg35]

They have already thrown their #3 against Southern. Their ace is going today and we will get there #4 if they win. I’m not worried about either to be honest. The only pitcher that gave us a hard time was the CMU pitcher who threw 70 something pitches yest. He should be done. They don’t have the pitching to beat us twice. Hell neither one does...

[yjnkdawg]

If Miami pitches their best pitcher against CMU, they have virtually no chance to win the Regional, but they probably will get 2nd. So it boils down to are you willing to risk coming in 3rd to have a shot to win the Regional, or would you rather just claim 2nd and get it?

Coming in second or third in a regional tourney doesn't mean anything either way. Other than you can say you made a regional tournament. Miami still wants to get a shot at playing us.

[The Federalist Engineer]

If I'm Miami, save the best for us. It's not like the Miami Herald will go crazy or something. UM athletics has crashed down the pecking order of importance in South Florida. Because they are a private school, FSU and UF have far more fans.

The numbers indicate that Van Bell is the Ace but it's not overwhelming differential like Small and our #3. They basically have 4 pitchers with #3 type stats.

[Quaoarsking]

I can't see their coach not starting their ace today. When you already have one loss in a double elimination tourney, you have to look at what pitching option gives you the best chance of winning the next game.

I don't necessarily agree. I think you pitch whoever gives you the best shot of winning the Regional, not who gives you the best shot of winning the next game. The real mistake Miami made was not pitching their #4 against Southern in the first place. If they hadn't, they would have 2 weekend guys for the 2 games today.

[yjnkdawg]

I don't necessarily agree. I think you pitch whoever gives you the best shot of winning the Regional, not who gives you the best shot of winning the next game. The real mistake Miami made was not pitching their #4 against Southern in the first place. If they hadn't, they would have 2 weekend guys for the 2 games today.

When you already have one loss, I think you do what you can to win the next game. If they don't win the game this afternoon then it's a moot point on who they pitch against us.

[GreenheadDawg]

Has Miami announced who they are throwing?

[Really Clark?]

Only coaches who out think themselves, go through a tournament without throwing their best pitcher. You never ever get eliminated and not throw your best pitcher. Especially after already gambling once and losing

[DawgNsuds]

Has Miami announced who they are throwing?

This says Van Bell
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2019/6/2/...nation-rematch

[Quaoarsking]

Only coaches who out think themselves, go through a tournament without throwing their best pitcher. You never ever get eliminated and not throw your best pitcher. Especially after already gambling once and losing

So if we were 1-1 and matched up with Southern and had Small available, do you throw Small? I think not. Ron Polk didn't think so in 2006, either, and it was the right call then, since it maximized our odds of winning the Regional.

Granted, Miami isn't in that extreme of a situation since CMU isn't bad, but Miami (or any team in their situation) should maximize their chances of winning the Regional, not maximize their chances of coming in 2nd. If that means not throwing their best remaining pitcher in an elimination game in order to save him for a tougher opponent later, so be it.

[CadaverDawg]

So if we were 1-1 and matched up with Southern and had Small available, do you throw Small? I think not. Ron Polk didn't think so in 2006, either, and it was the right call then, since it maximized our odds of winning the Regional.

Granted, Miami isn't in that extreme of a situation since CMU isn't bad, but Miami (or any team in their situation) should maximize their chances of winning the Regional, not maximize their chances of coming in 2nd. If that means not throwing their best remaining pitcher in an elimination game in order to save him for a tougher opponent later, so be it.

I pretty much agree with you, but the devil's advocate response would be, "Your chances to win the Regional are done completely if you don't make it to the next game. So giving yourself an opportunity with your #4 is better than sitting at home with your #1 never throwing a pitch". Just saying, I get both views, so there isn't a 100% correct answer I guess.

Unfortunately most coaches are too in fear of losing their jobs and/or fan support, so they won't run the risk of their Ace not pitching. Would open them up to major criticism, even if it gave them their best chance to win the Regional

[RocketDawg]

What time do they play?

[Really Clark?]

So if we were 1-1 and matched up with Southern and had Small available, do you throw Small? I think not. Ron Polk didn't think so in 2006, either, and it was the right call then, since it maximized our odds of winning the Regional.

Granted, Miami isn't in that extreme of a situation since CMU isn't bad, but Miami (or any team in their situation) should maximize their chances of winning the Regional, not maximize their chances of coming in 2nd. If that means not throwing their best remaining pitcher in an elimination game in order to save him for a tougher opponent later, so be it.

They are not playing Southern and they already lost to this same team gambling.

And 2006 our staff didn’t have a great starter. But we started the guys with the most starts (Dunn and Johnson) by far during the season the first 2 games. So don’t know what you are alluding to as far as not pitching our ace? Pigott pitched the end of the second game to secure the close win vs #4 seed and came back and pitched 8 innings the next day to eliminate Elon. He had our lowest ERA but worked both as a sometime starter and bullpen. He was our best pitcher and was used a lot to get to the championship game.

[Quaoarsking]

They are not playing Southern and they already lost to this same team gambling.

And 2006 our staff didn’t have a great starter. But we started the guys with the most starts (Dunn and Johnson) by far during the season the first 2 games. So don’t know what you are alluding to as far as not pitching our ace? Pigott pitched the end of the second game to secure the close win vs #4 seed and came back and pitched 8 innings the next day to eliminate Elon. He had our lowest ERA but worked both as a sometime starter and bullpen. He was our best pitcher and was used a lot to get to the championship game.

There was a lot of speculation of whether Pigott (who was considered to be our clear best pitcher in June 2006) would pitch against the 4 seed or we would hold him. Polk explicitly said in an interview something to the effect of "We came here to win a Regional, not just to win 1 game, so we're going to hold out Pigott for a later game." He acknowledged that if we lost to the 4 seed, that meant that Pigott wouldn't pitch the whole Regional, and he was willing to take the risk because he wanted to win the Regional, not just a game.

Thus I think it's pretty relevant to the discussion at hand. Even if we'd lost to the 4 (I believe it was UNC Asheville?), Polk made the right choice.