New ESPN Bowl Projections have us in Citrus or Gator

[confucius say]

If LSU and Ky both win out they both, along with Bama and Uga, will likely be in NY6 bowls. If so, Fla to citrus (unless they totally fall apart) and us to outback.

[Tbonewannabe]

Yea, those predictions are worthless b/c nobody knows how the SEC fills the Pool of 6 Bowl games. The SEC intentionally doesn't set out any guidelines so that they can maintain flexibility to slot teams as they see fit.

I looked over some of the previous bowl appearances.

Music City - UK, UT, A&M, LSU, UM, Vandy, MSU, UT is the last 8 teams.

UT has been to the Music City twice, 2016 and 2010. Big attendance however they will probably travel well wherever they go.
SC & Mizzou have never been to the Music City.

Belk - A&M, Ark, MSU, and UGA.
SC would be a great fit here and they have never been there.

Gator - MSU, UK, UGA, UT, UGA, MSU, UF, MSU - Since SEC tie in MSU has went almost half the time.
AU or A&M would be a good fit here since neither has been there before.

Texas - Mizzou, A&M, LSU, Ark
AU, MSU, or A&M would probably be a good fit here. A&M would have the best attendance.

Liberty - No SEC last year, UGA, Ark, A&M, MSU, No Sec, Vandy, UGA, Ark, UK, MSU
Mizzou, MSU, Vandy, A&M would all be good fits here. MSU probably brings the best attendance.

Outback - SC, UF, UT, AU, LSU, SC, UGA, UF, AU, SC, UT, UT, UF, UGA, UF, UF, SC, SC, UK, UGA
MSU, UK, AU, A&M, UF all seem like a good fit here. It does seem that a lot of the time the SEC team was ranked in the top 20 and they favor the East.

With that said the probable landing spot for MSU is:

Outback if we are ranked in the top 20 and UF or UK isn't an option. I doubt they choose AU or A&M since both will probably be out of the top 25 at that time. Also with Joe going against the Big 10 it has a different spin.

Music City - close proximity and we have only played there once 8 years ago. I could see the Music City wanting us if we are available and UT isn't.

Belk - I doubt it due to driving distance and other bowls make more sense.

Gator - possible but with us going almost every other year along with being there last year.

Liberty - I could see Liberty wanting us, I also could see us lobbying to go somewhere else.

Texas - Mizzou was there last year so it might make sense for A&M to go here. They would travel well. I could see us or AU ending up there.

Citrus - We would need to play Bama close and kick Ark and UM's ass. We would also need UF to lose another game and fall out of the top 25. I think for the most part that the highest ranked team available goes here.

[Tbonewannabe]

I know that's half sarcastic, but I really expect the Liberty to be it. The pool of 6 bowls are likely going to be picking between:

MSU (8), A&M (7), Auburn (7), USCe (7), Mizzou (7/6) Vandy (6?)

I could see Liberty really preferring MSU. We'll be the best team available and have a history of showing up for the Liberty and I don't know if anybody else will have such a strong preference for us. Probably our next best best would be Texas. A&M has been to Texas recently and Missouri went last year. Auburn will probably be desired by the Florida bowls and want to go to Florida rather than having the longer trek to Texas. Texas pushing hard for MSU might be the Texas Bowl's best bet, or they will be relying on a 7-5 USCe team to travel to Houston, which might be iffy, or Vandy, who I'm guessing none of the bowl games want.


Looking at each team:

A&M: Outback/Gator (they've done the other 4 Pool of 6 in the past 4 years)
USCe: Anything but Outback
Auburn: Any Bowl (went to Outback in 2015 but don't think Auburn or Outback will care)
Vandy: Any bowl (went to Liberty and Music City in 2011 and 2012)
MSU: Any bowl but Gator or Belk (Belk in 2015, Liberty in 2013, Music City in 2011)
Missouri: Any bowl but Texas

So, if they take proximity and recent appearances into account, I could see something like:

Outback: A&M
Gator: Auburn
Texas: MSU
Music City: Missouri
Liberty: Vandy
Belk: USCe

I know all that level bowls are "equal" but does the SEC or other bowls push for us since we might be the only team available that is ranked?

[Johnson85]

I know all that level bowls are "equal" but does the SEC or other bowls push for us since we might be the only team available that is ranked?

I don't know that anybody not on the inside of the SEC really knows. I suspect that the Bowls make their preferences known to the SEC and the schools make their preferences known to the SEC, and then the SEC tries to make everybody more or less happy, while keeping some variety in who goes where. I think MSU will be very desirable to all of the Pool of 6 bowls other than Gator, I just don't know that anybody other than Liberty will have a strong preference for us compared to say Auburn or A&M. One thing that may help will be Vandy being in the pool of 6. If the SEC tries to take the bowls and the schools wishes into account, presumably we'll at worst get our choice between two of the bowls.

One thing that could work against us is if Liberty was left out last year because of school choices. If that wasn't contractual, the SEC may try to give Liberty some preference this year to keep them happy.

[Tbonewannabe]

I don't know that anybody not on the inside of the SEC really knows. I suspect that the Bowls make their preferences known to the SEC and the schools make their preferences known to the SEC, and then the SEC tries to make everybody more or less happy, while keeping some variety in who goes where. I think MSU will be very desirable to all of the Pool of 6 bowls other than Gator, I just don't know that anybody other than Liberty will have a strong preference for us compared to say Auburn or A&M. One thing that may help will be Vandy being in the pool of 6. If the SEC tries to take the bowls and the schools wishes into account, presumably we'll at worst get our choice between two of the bowls.

One thing that could work against us is if Liberty was left out last year because of school choices. If that wasn't contractual, the SEC may try to give Liberty some preference this year to keep them happy.

Leave it to us to be ranked and finish 3rd in the West and go to the damn Liberty Bowl.

[Pit Bull]

Nice looking Doggie!....No, was not serious....guess I left off the asterisks!

[Matty Dispatch]

I don't know how we could possibly go to the Citrus at 8-4.

Most likely scenario is Alabama (12-0), Georgia (11-1), Kentucky (10-2), LSU (10-2), Florida (9-3). All 5 of those would be ahead of State. Even if Florida goes 8-4 they would have a win over State. 3 will go to the NY6 and the 4th team will go to the Citrus. We are 6th. I don't see it.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

I don't know how we could possibly go to the Citrus at 8-4.

Most likely scenario is Alabama (12-0), Georgia (11-1), Kentucky (10-2), LSU (10-2), Florida (9-3). All 5 of those would be ahead of State. Even if Florida goes 8-4 they would have a win over State. 3 will go to the NY6 and the 4th team will go to the Citrus. We are 6th. I don't see it.

If that's the scenario then UGA KY & LSU all finish in the top 12. Therefore they're guaranteed spots in the NY6 Bowls.

[Tbonewannabe]

I don't know how we could possibly go to the Citrus at 8-4.

Most likely scenario is Alabama (12-0), Georgia (11-1), Kentucky (10-2), LSU (10-2), Florida (9-3). All 5 of those would be ahead of State. Even if Florida goes 8-4 they would have a win over State. 3 will go to the NY6 and the 4th team will go to the Citrus. We are 6th. I don't see it.

Alabama - Playoff
UGA - SEC auto NY6
LSU - At Large NY6
UK - At Large NY6

If those happen then it leaves:

UF - 9-3 Citrus or 8-4 with loss to SC
MSU - 8-4
Mizzou could win out and be 8-4. Vandy, UT, Ark is who they have left with only UT on the road.
SC 7-5 unless they beat UF then 8-4
AU 7-5
A&M 7-5
Vandy 7-5 if they win out which would bump Mizzou down and eliminate UT
UT 7-5 if they win out which would bump Mizzou and Vandy down.

After all of this happens, depending on what the score is this weekend, we might be the only team ranked in that group below UF. I doubt we go to the Citrus unless we either 1) win out and beat Bama or 2)UF loses to FSU.

I realistically think our choices are Outback, Music City, Liberty, or Texas. I don't see us going back to the Gator or Belk. Texas Bowl probably depends on if they want A&M again after having them in 2016. Music City or Liberty would probably be thrilled to get UT if they are available.

SC has been to the Outback several times including last year and I could see SC fans getting Outback bowl fatigue similar to us with the Gator. SC has been 5 times since 2000.
Mizzou could go to the Outback but their fans would have even further to travel than us. Mizzou also has 1 good win and that is against UF.
AU will probably finish 7-5 and not ranked so within 1 game so it could happen. They have been in the Outback twice before. The only other West team was LSU.
A&M will also probably finish 7-5 and not ranked. This would be the team that would have the farthest to travel.

I think it boils down to us being the highest ranked and actual best on the field team that the Outback can get. We haven't been there before so you might have an attendance bump due to that. You also have the angle of Joe's offense against a Big Ten defense once again. If Penn St is the team from the Big Ten then it is a no brainer. That said, we have been passed over before and now the bowls are "equal" you can't say going to the Music City or Liberty is being passed over. Hopefully Cohen, Keenum, and Joe can recruit our way into the Outback or possibly Citrus because recruiting or pull is probably what it ends up being important.

[Matty Dispatch]

If that's the scenario then UGA KY & LSU all finish in the top 12. Therefore they're guaranteed spots in the NY6 Bowls.

Still, Florida would go to the Citrus and State wouldn't. Unless Florida implodes and loses to South Carolina and Florida State and we hold serve, that's the only way we go to the Citrus.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Still, Florida would go to the Citrus and State wouldn't. Unless Florida implodes and loses to South Carolina and Florida State and we hold serve, that's the only way we go to the Citrus.

My apologies I was thinking Outback

[Tbonewannabe]

Still, Florida would go to the Citrus and State wouldn't. Unless Florida implodes and loses to South Carolina and Florida State and we hold serve, that's the only way we go to the Citrus.

Win out and we either get Citrus or NY6. All we have to do is beat Bama. Lol

[Matty Dispatch]

Win out and we either get Citrus or NY6. All we have to do is beat Bama. Lol

We'd definitely get a NY6: 9-3 and be ranked in the top 10, maybe even the top 8 with a Bama win and 3 "good losses".

[Tbonewannabe]

We'd definitely get a NY6: 9-3 and be ranked in the top 10, maybe even the top 8 with a Bama win and 3 "good losses".

I think we only get the Citrus if UF loses another game. Even then you might have SC jump us for the Citrus if they are the team that beat UF.

[Todd4State]

I think we only get the Citrus if UF loses another game. Even then you might have SC jump us for the Citrus if they are the team that beat UF.

I doubt South Carolina jumps us unless they upset Clemson on the road. That's the most likely way that they would have a record better than us. They're more likely to be 7-5 than jump us at this point.

[Tbonewannabe]

I doubt South Carolina jumps us unless they upset Clemson on the road. That's the most likely way that they would have a record better than us. They're more likely to be 7-5 than jump us at this point.

They will be 8-4 if they beat UF.

[Todd4State]

They will be 8-4 if they beat UF.

Even if they do that I think they will be behind us. Our resume is better if things play out as expected.

[Tbonewannabe]

Even if they do that I think they will be behind us. Our resume is better if things play out as expected.

One thing we have going for us is we should finish on at least a 2 game winning streak where SC has to play Clemson. That should at least get us back into the top 25 hopefully.

[Matty Dispatch]

LSU dropped 4 spots after losing to Bama 29-0 at home. Granted, they have some nice wins, but being 16th right now State shouldn't completely drop out of the CFP top 25 unless it's just a 63-3 shallacking.

[Tbonewannabe]

LSU dropped 4 spots after losing to Bama 29-0 at home. Granted, they have some nice wins, but being 16th right now State shouldn't completely drop out of the CFP top 25 unless it's just a 63-3 shallacking.

I agree, I think even with a Bama loss we should be around 20-22 depending on what teams do around us.