Will Nick Run the Ball Less This Year?

[ShotgunDawg]

Just listened to Brandon Walker's podcast on Friday where he discussed how excited he was that Fitz would not be carrying the ball as much this Fall as he has in the past. Thing is, I'm not really sure how I feel about it.

I mean, if I made a list of the things that Fitz did best, it would go like this:

1. Run
2. Make plays
3. Lead the Offense
4. Efficiently pass the ball

So, in a year where we have enormous ceiling, why would I want Nick Fitzgerald doing less of what he does best?

It's an interesting topic for discussion, but I put together a few numbers to help us better understand what type of play calling to expect under Moorhead in an effort see if we could come to any conclusions about how much Nick will be running the football.

Somethings that I believe we must consider:

1. Trace McSorely is a more accurate passer that Fitz. He has less arm strength & is overall less talented, but I'd say he's an easy grade more accurate.
2. MSU does not have Barkley. We are really good at RB, but we don't have Barkley.
3. MSU has a significantly better OL than Penn State
4. Penn State had more proven/accomplished WRs & TEs. Not sure if more talented, but more proven.
5. MSU has a significantly better defense than Penn State. Does that equal less risk week in & week out?

Here are the numbers:



My conclusion: from a run/pass % & how often Nick runs the ball, I think our offense will look an awful lot like 2016 when we had Fred Ross. Mullen went off the deep end last year, rightfully so, because of our lack of WRs & the injuries to Gray, Mixon, & Myles. Biggest difference is that in 2016, MSU had Brandon Holloway at RB & Mullen ran Fitz in a higher % of running plays likely due to that.

To add on top of this: in 2016 & 2017, McSorely's yards per pass attempt were a full 2 yards higher than Fitz's in both years. So yeah, we'll be throwing the ball down the field more.