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Football Record Chances Using FPI
If you look at FPI given by ESPN, it gives you the chances of winning each game. It also gives the expected win/loss total based on the projections, which is 8.4 wins to 3.7 losses, given us the likely scenario of a 8 or 9 win season (excluding post season). I wanted to know more about our ceiling and floor though, so I ran these numbers through 100 seasons of this. Obviously there's a lot of assumptions to be made here, so don't treat this like an exact science.
Here's the breakdown out of 100 seasons at these projected numbers (http://www.espn.com/college-football...=344&year=2018).
| Record |
# of occurrences |
| 12-0 |
1 |
| 11-1 |
5 |
| 10-2 |
10 |
| 9-3 |
25 |
| 8-4 |
32 |
| 7-5 |
16 |
| 6-6 |
8 |
| 5-7 |
3 |
Last edited by sleepy dawg; 07-16-2018 at 04:23 PM.
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