Turning It Around After Missing a Bowl?

[engie]

I know what you are saying. "Jackie turned it around a few times". And that's true. It was also a different era lacking the cut-throat nature and mega-money contracts of today's SEC. The question appears to be "how much revenue can teams afford to lose in giving coaches multiple chances to turn it around?" Simply put, there is always excitement with a new coach selling fresh hope -- and excitement sells tickets. Once interest is lost, it is a much more difficult and lengthy process to regain that interest by winning at a higher level than it is by simply blowing it up and starting over. One is a virtual guarantee(new coach), while the other is still a big risk that hasn't panned out recently, outside of extenuating circumstances. Patience does not $ell in today's environment. Buyouts get really cheap compared to not selling tickets and getting donations.

In the last 5 years, there have been 16 total SEC bowl "misses". In those 16 total cases, 10 coaches were fired that very year for it. 2 were first year coaches showing promise(Mullen and Petrino) that were retained. In the remaining 4 cases, Nutt, Joker, and Dooley all got even worse the next year and were fired then.

In the last 5 years, Gary Pinkel is the only coach that kept his job and actually returned to bowl eligibility the next year. 1 of 16 individual situations made it "back" after a single missed bowl. I consider him a special situation due to an inordinate amount of injuries to key personnel. It was obvious last year what was happening with them and how badly they missed a few pieces. I mentioned this alot in the preseason when everyone was overlooking them as a Kentucky-level doormat. He lost something like 6 starters in the preseason -- mostly in the trenches, where they already knew they had no depth, lost his Heisman-candidate(at the time) QB early, his elite national RB medically redshirted, and they limped through the #2 SOS in the country, finishing at 5-7. He drew Bama and aTm in the cross-division and played 2 8-win BCS teams in the nonconference. He still underwent a major staff overhaul with the firing of a longterm OC and several others in the off-season.

2012:
Pinkel? Successful as noted above
Dooley? Fired
Joker? Fired
John L? Fired
Chizik? Fired

2011:
Nutt? Fired
Dooley? Retained but got far worse
Joker? Retained but got far worse

2010:
Nutt? Retained but got far worse
Caldwell? Fired

2009:
Johnson? Fired
Mullen? Promise shown in year 1

2008:
Croom? Fired
Tuberville? Fired
Petrino? Promise shown in year 1
Fulmer? Fired

This isn't necessarily to draw a conclusion about Mullen -- because I believe with the 2014 schedule, it would be well above a 50% chance that he would take us bowling the next year. Then again, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Tennessee also trusted this would be true -- and all 3 then fell apart in spectacular fashion.