Project for Smitty...

[messageboardsuperhero]

I looked at the innings which our leadoff man got on first base in conference play for analysis. I looked at what the outcomes where when we immediately followed a leadoff one-bagger (Hit, HBP, BB, IBB, etc) man on 1st 0 out. I knew it was bad, but nothing like this.

With man on 1st, 0 out. WE BUNT
Occurrences: 26
Score a run: 6
# of runs : 6

We bunted in that position 26 times, only scoring 6 times, one run each inning. That is 23% which is off the charts bad yielding .2 runs/inning. Thats after having a man on 1st and no outs

With a man on 1st, 0 out. WE DONT BUNT
Occurrences: 66
Score a run: 36
# of runs: 77

We didnt bunt in that situation 66 times, scoring 36 times, with many occurrences of multiple runs. That is 55% of innings we score yielding 1.12 runs/inning, A FULL RUN higher than bunting in the same situation.

55% > 23% of innings we score
1.12 > 0.2 runs per inning

Say what you want about me and this issue. These statistics don't lie.


My post from Sixpack on May 11th, 2012.

My God, I had no idea it was THAT bad... Of course that's from 2012, but I bet the numbers would be pretty consistent this year if we had a larger sample size. Cohen needs to check his ego and let the players hit- it is undeniable at this point.

ETA: And again, that doesn't even count the times we fail to get the bunt down and end up having to swing away in pitcher's counts... Which undoubtably make the "bunt" numbers look better than they actually are and the "no bunt" numbers look worse than they actually are.