Quote Originally Posted by blacklistedbully View Post
You really just don't get it. Your scenario that increases chances of scoring 2 runs also decrease the chances of scoring 1 run. Statistically, the reason the odds of scoring zero go up when bunting is because the odds of scoring 2 or more go way down. Not all of that goes to increasing the, "1-run" probability, a smaller portion of the redistribution goes to, "zero runs". You are getting hopelessly lost in the, "at least 1", or, "more than one" loop.

To grasp this, you only have to consider, "what is the greatest chance of scoring the one run I need this inning?" It's not about maximizing the total potential of, "expected runs". It't about maximizing the chances of getting 1 run. You are making a false argument that, "the better odds of scoring more than one" precludes the possibility that the odds of scoring just one are better in certain circumstances. That is an incorrect assumption, statistically.
I dont think you could be more wrong if you wanted to. But carry on making a fool of yourself.