In order of importance

1. Miami over Florida State - for obvious reasons, an FSU loss knocks them out of contention.
2. Auburn over Georgia - For a couple reasons. Auburn is 9th, and could keep moving up. Our win over them will be important if it comes down to resume. Secondly, a Georgia loss gives Missouri cushion to lose a game and still win the East. If we get the trip to Atlanta, it will be must win. Missouri is a better matchup for us.
3. Oregon State over Arizona State - ASU/Oregon are going to have an elimination game down the stretch - but what if ASU lost to Oregon State but beat Oregon and knocked both of them out?

I think we drop to 4th. 3rd if Miami pulls the upset. That last touchdown not only made sure a bunch of kids in Alabama have a bad Christmas, but made the loss more respectable.