...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:
  • South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
  • @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
  • Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
  • @ Auburn - again maybe 1
  • Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
  • Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
  • @ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.