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Keep an eye on late this weekend
Models are starting to trend towards an interesting direction. The last few days they've gone from sunny and in the 40's to low 50's to a colder with chances of precipitation. I'll let you put 2 and 2 together. As of right now, only the Euro model has gone fully on board with a wintry weekend, but the others are slowly easing that direction. About 4 of the GFS ensemble members are on board, too. Now, this far out the next run may be sunny and 60 and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Winter weather is notoriously hard to forecast here. Of the models showing snow this weekend the line looks to roughly be north of a Yazoo City to Macon area with accumulation amounts ranging from 2-6". But again, no way of knowing this far out. We could get more than this, less, or none at all. None at all usually wins out at least 95% of the time it seems.
Trends have been building for a pattern flip bringing down arctic air to the eastern 1/3 of the US. Temps in northwest Canada are running -30 to -40. If the pattern flip holds, pieces of that cold air will start breaking off and heading SE. Depending on how much breaks free and how fast it travels will determine how much it modifies as it heads this way. Regarding this, the models have been wildly inconsistent. They've ranged from "this isn't too bad" to "you won't see your balls again until St. Patrick's day." This looks to be the case through at least the end of the month. So IF these pieces of arctic air break off and can make their way here reasonably intact and IF we can get some moisture in place at the same time then parts of the southeast could have a chance of multiple rounds of wintry weather over the next 2-3 weeks.
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