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Originally Posted by
deadheaddawg
Yes give fitz nfl receivers and his passing numbers would go up.....but as stated before then Fitz's rushing numbers go down . And the one thing Fitz has done better than tebow in.....well he wouldn't be better at that anymore
Under no circumstance would Fitz have total numbers comparable to tebow. Not even if he played on those Florida teams.
This really is an dumb thread. Very very dumb
Actually, we have our own season statistics that say you are wrong.
In 2016, with 4* Fred Ross (917 y), 4* Donald Gray (709 y), 4* Malik Dear (264), and 3* Keith Mixon (228) as our 4 top receivers being thrown to by a QB they had been working with for 2-3 years, Fitz threw for 2,423 yards and 21 TDs, and ran for his highest rushing total 1,375. That's 186 yards passing and 105 yards rushing a game. Our top 4 receivers average rank on 247 was 3.75* with an average player rating of .902.
In 2017, our WR downgraded due to graduation - and more importantly injuries to Gray, Mixon, and Dear. Our top 4 receivers were 3* Jackson (276 y), 3* Mixon (275 y in 8 games), 3* D. Thomas (263), and 4* Gray (214 y in 8 games).
Our team passing yards went down 525 yards from '16 to '17, and our QB rushing production was essentially the same - 1,430 total yards '16 (Fitz, and D Will), and 1,474 in '17 (Fitz and Key). Fitz's passing numbers dropped to 158 yards a game (11.25 games played due to injury), and his rushing yards decreased to 87.5 yards a game. Our top 4 receivers average rank on 247 was 3.25* with an average player rating of ..883. A significant drop. The receiving corps was injury riddled, personnel changed from week to week, and had virtually no in-game experience beyond our 3 injured guys.
In 2018, our top 4 receivers to date are 3* Mitchell (242 y), 4* Guidry (192), 3* Johnson (119), and 3* Thomas (103). Our top 4 receivers average rank on 247 was 3.25* with an average player rating of .864
To date, Fitz has averaged 142 yards passing a game, and 103 yards rushing. Already, our receiving corps is more productive then last year in terms of top 4 receivers - but there is only 1 carry-over player - Thomas. So, essentially Fitz is throwing to an all new receiving corps for the 2nd straight year. These 4 are lower rated than the previous 2 years - and significantly lower rated than the top 4 receivers in '16.
So far, Fitz' rushing production has bounced back to his '16 level, but the passing production is still down. Why is that? Well Fred Ross, Donald Gray, a healthy Malik Dear, and a healthy Keith Mixon were; 1)higher rated recruits; 2) Ross and Gray are #1 and #15 in school history in receiving yards respectively - meaning they were very talented as far as MSU goes; 3) all of them had worked with Fitz and had at least a full season of SEC experience on the field prior to Fitz being the starter. Gray, Mixon and Dear 1 year ('15), and Ross 3 years ('13, '14 & '15). This year's crew - Mitchell played in 5 games last year, Guidry is a JUCO transfer. Thomas and Johnson have been in the program longer - (14 games over 3 years each) and are also learning a new system.
So, while Fitz can be inconsistent, and is no Tebow passing the ball; the past 2 years have been obviously hampered by our lack of health, experience, consistency, and ability amongst our WR corps. It's right there in the stats. That lack of passing offense has also not led to Fitz or our QB's in general running more - as that production has been relatively steady thru 2+ seasons
Hopefully, over the next 2 weeks our passing game can come together and get us closer to Fitz' ceiling ('16 -2,400+ yards), and not the floor ('17 - 1,782 yards).
ETA: You could argue that I need to replace Justin Johnson in the '18 WR list, since he really is a hybrid TE/WR - but I think most of his production is coming as a WR. If swapped him for Mixon, our #5 receiver, it decreases this year's production level and slightly increases the player rating.
Last edited by BrunswickDawg; 10-10-2018 at 08:28 AM.
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