Eagles Shopping Fletcher?

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Come on down to Houston Mr Cox.

[MetEdDawg]

It would take more than Fletch and #20.

Oh no doubt. But I do think Fletcher would be the type of piece they want plus their 1st round this year and most likely more picks this year or a high pick next year. But Fletcher is a former 1st round draft pick and was by most everyone the biggest snub for the Pro Bowl this year. So he's a Pro Bowl caliber player and would be worth quite a bit in terms of a return for a 2nd overall pick.

[smootness]

If the Browns even entertained giving up a 1st for Bradford, they're insane.

But the Eagles giving up Cox in a deal to get Mariota doesn't necessarily signal that they don't care about defense. It just means they'll do whatever it takes to get their QB because once you have your QB, you have a decade plus to build the rest of your team.

Personally I think that's stupid, but if Mariota in that system ends up being elite, then there literally is no price too high.

[Johnson85]

That seems to me like a ridiculous proposal on their part. Mariota seems to me to have bust written all over him but I am not an NFL scout.

I don't know that Mariota has bust written on him, but he definitely looks like a QB that is going to go way too high just because there aren't a lot of obviously good QB prospects in his draft class. Kelly is somebody that could maximize his talents, but it seems like most years there will be a QB like Mariota that is available through the entire first round. I don't see why he'd be in a hurry to overpay for a QB this year.

[Really Clark?]

See, while Mariota may end up not being worth that high of a pick, Winston has the biggest bust factor of the two. IMO. And it's not about talent but could we not see him completely out of the league in 2-3 years because of character issues? So why take him even higher? Personally I don't think I would draft a QB in the Top 10. Or even first round unless I feel really good about a guy falling down to the lower part of the first round like Rodgers. Way too many of them never pan out.

[dawgs]

If the Browns even entertained giving up a 1st for Bradford, they're insane.

But the Eagles giving up Cox in a deal to get Mariota doesn't necessarily signal that they don't care about defense. It just means they'll do whatever it takes to get their QB because once you have your QB, you have a decade plus to build the rest of your team.

Personally I think that's stupid, but if Mariota in that system ends up being elite, then there literally is no price too high.

Pretty much this. If you don't have a top 10ish QB in the NFL these days, you have to be elite or near elite everywhere else to win the super bowl. If you have an elite (top 3-5) guy, you can be below avg at a lot of spots and still stand a chance. If the Eagles trade for Mariota and he maximizes his talent with chip, then the Eagles have plenty of time to build the rest of the team.

All you have to do is look at the colts who were a lot worse than the Eagles pre-luck, and they are a perennial playoff team immediately with luck and still building.

Mariota might bust, but if you believe in the guy, having a franchise QB is invaluable.

[Really Clark?]

Pretty much this. If you don't have a top 10ish QB in the NFL these days, you have to be elite or near elite everywhere else to win the super bowl. If you have an elite (top 3-5) guy, you can be below avg at a lot of spots and still stand a chance. If the Eagles trade for Mariota and he maximizes his talent with chip, then the Eagles have plenty of time to build the rest of the team.

All you have to do is look at the colts who were a lot worse than the Eagles pre-luck, and they are a perennial playoff team immediately with luck and still building.

Mariota might bust, but if you believe in the guy, having a franchise QB is invaluable.

I agree with you about what having an elite QB means to a team, but you would be better off waiting and finding the guy later in the draft. Even if it takes me 3 drafts of picking a 2,3, or 4th round QB every year. There are just so few elite QB's who are actually drafted in the elite position. Top 10.

[smootness]

Personally I don't think I would draft a QB in the Top 10. Or even first round unless I feel really good about a guy falling down to the lower part of the first round like Rodgers. Way too many of them never pan out.

Good luck with that.

[MetEdDawg]

I think they should wait until next year to get their QB. There are going to be a couple, including Dak, that would be perfect in that style offense and will be available 1st or 2nd round in 2016.

CBS sports has Dak as the 2nd best QB in next year's draft and since 2001 there has only been one year where at least 3 QBs didn't go in the 1st 2 rounds and that was in 2013 where 2 went.

Dak and Treyvon Boykin both have really promising NFL potential in the correct offense in my opinion and that could be with the Eagles. With 2 solid QB options in next year's draft that will most likely not cost nearly as much to go get as Mariota, I think I would wait until next year to get my early round QB and shore up my defense and OL so that a 1st year QB in that system could potentially step right in and have a good enough team around them to go far in the playoffs in their 1st year.

[Johnson85]

Personally I don't think I would draft a QB in the Top 10. Or even first round unless I feel really good about a guy falling down to the lower part of the first round like Rodgers. Way too many of them never pan out.

You have to be willing to draft a QB with a high draft pick, but you can't fall into the trap of thinking every class has a QB worthy of a 1st round pick. I think this is one of those years where there's not a QB worthy of a 1st round pick (or at least not one you can project to be; some QB will end up being worthy of one with the benefit of hindsight).

But QBs' mean so much to the team, you have to take a shot when you truly do have an elite looking talent available, even if you're odds are basically 50/50 on whether they will pan out (and this is assuming you avoid picking a QB just because you can get one of the two best qb's in the draft).

[Really Clark?]

Good luck with that.

Well outside of Luck who is a franchise QB drafted in the elite positions in the last decade? You are assuming that a Luck type is ready to be an elite QB every year. Just not true. The last decade you have had maybe 4 above avg to really good QB drafted in the Top 10. Stafford, Bradford, Ryan and Luck. That's the best that I can think of. That's 4 out 15 total QB's taken in the Top 10 for the last decade. And some of those years the class was so bad there was not one draft inside the Top 10. If I wait outside the top 10 I'm getting Rodgers, Flacco, Campbell, Cutler. Little above avg to really good. That's 4 guys out of the 12 drafted in slots 11-32 of the 1st round for the last decade. So yeah I have better luck waiting. I did not say if I am sitting with a Luck being available I wait but I will not wait around hoping to suck so bad to be in position to take him 1st overall.

[dawgs]

Well outside of Luck who is a franchise QB drafted in the elite positions in the last decade? You are assuming that a Luck type is ready to be an elite QB every year. Just not true. The last decade you have had maybe 4 above avg to really good QB drafted in the Top 10. Stafford, Bradford, Ryan and Luck. That's the best that I can think of. That's 4 out 15 total QB's taken in the Top 10 for the last decade. And some of those years the class was so bad there was not one draft inside the Top 10. If I wait outside the top 10 I'm getting Rodgers, Flacco, Campbell, Cutler. Little above avg to really good. That's 4 guys out of the 12 drafted in slots 11-32 of the 1st round for the last decade. So yeah I have better luck waiting. I did not say if I am sitting with a Luck being available I wait but I will not wait around hoping to suck so bad to be in position to take him 1st overall.

Yeah but you don't know if a Rodgers like fall is gonna happen. You also may look at Winston and Mariota and think they are clearly better than the other QB options, so therefore waiting until the middle or end of the 1st round might result in you drafting a QB you feel significantly worse about drafting.

Ultimately if the teams are sold on a guy, go get him. If you think he's unlikely to fall to you and you have him rated significantly better than the rest of the QBs, then figure out if he's good enough to trade up for.

It's a lot easier to say you'll wait for a guy and point to all the guys drafted in the middle to late 1st round that have panned out than it is to actually is to practice. Especially with the rookie contract salary caps, there's a lot less risk in drafting a QB high, because they no longer come with a $100M price tag, so teams are far more willing to gamble on guys that might be a franchise QB.

Plus Campbell has never been more than mediocre and you can argue cutler too. At least largely.

[Really Clark?]

You have to be willing to draft a QB with a high draft pick, but you can't fall into the trap of thinking every class has a QB worthy of a 1st round pick. I think this is one of those years where there's not a QB worthy of a 1st round pick (or at least not one you can project to be; some QB will end up being worthy of one with the benefit of hindsight).

But QBs' mean so much to the team, you have to take a shot when you truly do have an elite looking talent available, even if you're odds are basically 50/50 on whether they will pan out (and this is assuming you avoid picking a QB just because you can get one of the two best qb's in the draft).

I understand what you are saying and I agree about finding an elite QB, but I would trade down in a heart beat nearly every year instead of taking a guy in the Top 10. I'm better off filling two positions of need and finding a franchise QB later in the first round. I also follow the thought that a lot of GM's have about drafting QB's that come out early also. I want a SR who has started at least 2 years if I can get it.

[Really Clark?]

Yeah but you don't know if a Rodgers like fall is gonna happen. You also may look at Winston and Mariota and think they are clearly better than the other QB options, so therefore waiting until the middle or end of the 1st round might result in you drafting a QB you feel significantly worse about drafting.

Ultimately if the teams are sold on a guy, go get him. If you think he's unlikely to fall to you and you have him rated significantly better than the rest of the QBs, then figure out if he's good enough to trade up for.

It's a lot easier to say you'll wait for a guy and point to all the guys drafted in the middle to late 1st round that have panned out than it is to actually is to practice. Especially with the rookie contract salary caps, there's a lot less risk in drafting a QB high, because they no longer come with a $100M price tag, so teams are far more willing to gamble on guys that might be a franchise QB.

Plus Campbell has never been more than mediocre and you can argue cutler too. At least largely.

True. I don't know that a Rodgers will fall outside of the Top 10. It might be a Flacco, Roethlisberger, Culpepper, Campbell, Cutler, type as well. But by percentage I have a better percentage taking a guy outside of the Top 10. I think a lot of it is teams just reach to far up the board to find an elite guy that they are "sold" has the tools to be a franchise guy when if it was any other position they wouldn't reach nearly as far to take a guy. I know many have alluded to you can't be afraid to draft a QB that high. It's opposite in my opinion. You can't be afraid to take the best available and most value at the QB position. No matter what the fans and pundits think. Find the guy that fits your team the best. If it's the best player in the draft, then fine, get him. But more times than not a better player is available.

ETA. I know Campbell and Cutler are a stretch. I said little above to really good. But of the 4 Top 10 drafted guys they are not much better. Bradford and Stafford are the same level as Cutler. Heck Campbell is a career top 50 QB rating guy in line with the rest of these guys.

[Bama_Dawg]

If you are Saints and they offer Fletcher for Number 31 - how quickly do you say yes? Id probably do it for number 13 if the Eagles sent back a 3rd and a 5th.

THIS...all day long. Saints need the DL help...someone that's not a "project" or trouble maker.

[smootness]

The fact that you're having to use Daunte Culpepper, Jason Campbell, and Jay Cutler should tell you how smart it is to wait.

Your odds are not better of finding your guy outside of the top 10. There may be an even number of top 10 QBs who were taken outside the top 10 than inside, but there are also far more QBs taken in general outside the top 10.

Sure, plenty of QBs bust. Peyton Manning went 1, Leaf went 2. Luck went 1, Griffin went 2. You could say, 'Tom Brady went in the 6th round, so you can find QBs that late. I'll just wait to get my franchise QB.' But the only problem is that the other guys taken in that draft were Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider, Tim Rattay, Jarious Jackson, and Joe Hamilton.

Your chances of hitting on a top 10 QB who eventually becomes an elite guy are much higher than your odds if you wait. Considering how important it is to have an elite QB in the NFL, I would rather trade up every year and take a QB until I finally hit than just waiting and taking a guy here and there.

Of the top 11 QBs in QBR last year, 5 were taken in the top 4. Of the top 16, 8 were taken in the top 8. And Flacco and Roethlisberger were taken just outside the top 10.

So again, good luck with that.

[Really Clark?]

The fact that you're having to use Daunte Culpepper, Jason Campbell, and Jay Cutler should tell you how smart it is to wait.

Your odds are not better of finding your guy outside of the top 10. There may be an even number of top 10 QBs who were taken outside the top 10 than inside, but there are also far more QBs taken in general outside the top 10.

Sure, plenty of QBs bust. Peyton Manning went 1, Leaf went 2. Luck went 1, Griffin went 2. You could say, 'Tom Brady went in the 6th round, so you can find QBs that late. I'll just wait to get my franchise QB.' But the only problem is that the other guys taken in that draft were Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider, Tim Rattay, Jarious Jackson, and Joe Hamilton.

Your chances of hitting on a top 10 QB who eventually becomes an elite guy are much higher than your odds if you wait. Considering how important it is to have an elite QB in the NFL, I would rather trade up every year and take a QB until I finally hit than just waiting and taking a guy here and there.

Of the top 11 QBs in QBR last year, 5 were taken in the top 4. Of the top 16, 8 were taken in the top 8. And Flacco and Roethlisberger were taken just outside the top 10.

So again, good luck with that.

Flacco was taken 18 not right outside of the top 10. Bradford and Stafford are in the same class as Culter and Campbell. And people forget how good Culpepper was before he was injured. 3 pro bowls in his first 6 years. Passing leader in 2004 the year before the injury. Still is in the Top 15 of all time QBR. Better than Stafford, Bradford and Ryan.

I tell you what you trade up every year to get a top 10 QB and I will trade down. In 2-3 years I'm still a GM and the team that just fired you won't have to trade up now because they are already there. The main reason is unless the team with #1 overall absolutely do not need a QB, you are not getting Luck if you have to trade to get there. Now tell me who you are going to pick. And whoever it is, over the last 5 years even, I can match or do better later and I have more picks to solidify my team. Everybody looks at Luck and the Colts. That team was one year removed from the playoffs and 2 years from the super bowl when they tanked for one season. Luck is great but there were already a lot of pieces there.

ETA. Why did you just do Top 11 QBR? That's odd numer. Is it because it looks better than 4 of the Top 10. Or what about the Top 20. How many of those guys is it? 6-7. And you are using draft classes back 15 or so years. How many top drafted QB have there been in total during that time? Again I didn't say there are not elite QB's in the top I'm saying if you don't reach and be patient, every 3-5 years you have an elite guy elsewhere in the draft. A good starting QB can be found every 1-2 years. Sometime more than one and you do not have to reach for a guy.

[smootness]

The NFL is about the QB. Get your QB, and you're set. So yes, I would completely design my strategy around finding my QB until I found him.

I'll be the Browns until I'm suddenly the Packers or Colts; you'll perpetually be the Bills.

[Tbonewannabe]

See, while Mariota may end up not being worth that high of a pick, Winston has the biggest bust factor of the two. IMO. And it's not about talent but could we not see him completely out of the league in 2-3 years because of character issues? So why take him even higher? Personally I don't think I would draft a QB in the Top 10. Or even first round unless I feel really good about a guy falling down to the lower part of the first round like Rodgers. Way too many of them never pan out.

I think Winston has all of the traits that JFF, Ryan Leaf, Vince Young, and all the other primadonna QBs have. I think the minute he gets money in his pocket the NFL team will shit their pants because he will be doing some crazy shit.

[smootness]

It's not Winston's character or attitude that would concern me. It's his lack of mobility. People think he's a pretty athletic guy, but he is extremely slow-footed in the pocket. He also doesn't have a quick release and makes very questionable throws.