Don't look now Braves fans

[Dawg61]

No one is saying that speed is a bad thing. You don't substitute speed for on base ability though.

Would you rather have Billy Hamilton or Matt Carpenter leading off for the Cardinals?

Once Billy Hamilton learns to walk more he will quickly surpass Carpenter and Carpenter is a top 5 leadoff hitter imo. In 40 less ABs BH has 14 less runs, 1 more HR, 2 less RBI, 32 more SB but 32 less BB. When Billy puts on 15-20 lbs of muscle and walks more I think he has the potential to be a top 10 player in MLB.

[Pioneer Dawg]

So, in other words, there's very little correlation to SB's, OBP, and wins?

Because of your one example? Clearly there is a STRONGER correlation with OBP and offensive success (runs) than SB's...

Rate of correlation. It's what I live by. You CANT comprehend because you think a team that averages 4.0 runs and 4.9 runs a game is the same thing.

WINS come from offense defense and pitching. You have to maximize the correlations to maximize wins.

[Todd4State]

You do play defense and pitch as well

We can do this shit all day. Runs scored as an INDIVIDUAL don't really matter a hill of beans to SB or lesser extent OBP because runs scored is factored by other people.

As a TEAM obviously OBP leads to more runs not SB. The formula is known to those in front offices. Elite SB guys can overcome value of higher OBP guys BUT slugging appears to drop very much as stolen base numbers go up. OBP guys hit 1st because of the boppers behind them. Fast guys hit in front of singles hitters because they can steal and score on a single. Fast guys that also get on base good get to have their cake and eat it too.

Then why is offense as a whole declining in MLB? And has for the past 6-7 years?

[Todd4State]

Because of your one example? Clearly there is a STRONGER correlation with OBP and offensive success (runs) than SB's...

Rate of correlation. It's what I live by. You CANT comprehend because you think a team that averages 4.0 runs and 4.9 runs a game is the same thing.

WINS come from offense defense and pitching. You have to maximize the correlations to maximize wins.

No. Because of the 5 examples on here. The A's, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers, and Reds. You also aren't factoring in the fact that there aren't a lot of elite base stealers out there. You only have one side of the correlation because you don't know what the offensive numbers would be with more base stealers would be, so you only have one side of the story- without knowing the other side at all.

Of course, you CANT comprehend that because you don't have the numbers to show you better.

Again- offense is declining.

And if you read my original response correctly I said there was no correlation between SB, OBP, and wins. If you didn't have an agenda, you probably would have noticed.

[Todd4State]

Once Billy Hamilton learns to walk more he will quickly surpass Carpenter and Carpenter is a top 5 leadoff hitter imo. In 40 less ABs BH has 14 less runs, 1 more HR, 2 less RBI, 32 more SB but 32 less BB. When Billy puts on 15-20 lbs of muscle and walks more I think he has the potential to be a top 10 player in MLB.

Yeah- sabermetric people like to rip on Billy Hamilton but then totally discount that he is basically a rookie. They're like- oh shit, someone that can bunt for a hit.

[shoeless joe]

One question for the metric guys...

Will is telling me that .3 runs a game over a 162 game season are huge. Not gonna argue that. But then KB says Frazier seeing .8 % more fastballs isn't that much of a difference when he has way more than 162 at bats. I'm no math major but that is going to end up, over the course of the year, being a ton more fastballs.

This one example is where metrics folks lose some credibility...only looking at certain numbers and only using those numbers when they fit their agenda.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Offense has been down for a few reasons.

1. Power is down. If you haven't noticed we are moving farther away from the steroid era. Now will that mean more stolen bases and speed guys? Maybe maybe not ("maybe **** yourself"- The Departed). But if it does it will mean that it is the most efficient way to score the most runs.

2. Until last year stolen base totals kept climbing on up.

3. Pitchers are getting more efficient. Teams are rightly valuing the strikeout on the mound. Walks have been on steady decline lately.

4. Defensive shifts

[Pioneer Dawg]

One question for the metric guys...

Will is telling me that .3 runs a game over a 162 game season are huge. Not gonna argue that. But then KB says Frazier seeing .8 % more fastballs isn't that much of a difference when he has way more than 162 at bats. I'm no math major but that is going to end up, over the course of the year, being a ton more fastballs.

This one example is where metrics folks lose some credibility...only looking at certain numbers and only using those numbers when they fit their agenda.

Please let the stupidity end...

Just cause they are both sub 1 percentages you are comparing the two. It's not apples and oranges... Games played and pitches seen are apples and a school bus....

Just for shits and giggles I looked up Freddie freeman. He has a 1.9% difference in fastballs this year. 0.8% is MINUTE when talking pitch type.

.3 is the RUN TOTAL. .8 is a PERCENTAGE...

4.0 to 4.3 is a 7.5 PERCENT INCREASE.
50 to 50.8 is a 0.8 PERCENT INCREASE.

We have some stupid ****ing people that argue against us

[Todd4State]

Please let the stupidity end...

Just cause they are both sub 1 percentages you are comparing the two. It's not apples and oranges... Games played and pitches seen are apples and a school bus....

Just for shits and giggles I looked up Freddie freeman. He has a 1.9% difference in fastballs this year. 0.8% is MINUTE when talking pitch type.

.3 is the RUN TOTAL. .8 is a PERCENTAGE...

4.0 to 4.3 is a 7.5 PERCENT INCREASE.
50 to 50.8 is a 0.8 PERCENT INCREASE.

We have some stupid ****ing people that argue against us

He was asking a question, not "arguing" against you dumbass.

[Todd4State]

One question for the metric guys...

Will is telling me that .3 runs a game over a 162 game season are huge. Not gonna argue that. But then KB says Frazier seeing .8 % more fastballs isn't that much of a difference when he has way more than 162 at bats. I'm no math major but that is going to end up, over the course of the year, being a ton more fastballs.

This one example is where metrics folks lose some credibility...only looking at certain numbers and only using those numbers when they fit their agenda.

Yep. Use numbers unless they tell them that they are wrong. And then it's all about sample size, moving the goal post, etc.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Let's assume Frazier will see the same number of pitches this year as last.. 2297.

52% means he saw 1194 fastballs this year
52.8% means he'll see 1212 fastballs this season.

18 extra fastballs all year!!!

[shoeless joe]

Please let the stupidity end...

Just cause they are both sub 1 percentages you are comparing the two. It's not apples and oranges... Games played and pitches seen are apples and a school bus....

Just for shits and giggles I looked up Freddie freeman. He has a 1.9% difference in fastballs this year. 0.8% is MINUTE when talking pitch type.

.3 is the RUN TOTAL. .8 is a PERCENTAGE...

4.0 to 4.3 is a 7.5 PERCENT INCREASE.
50 to 50.8 is a 0.8 PERCENT INCREASE.

We have some stupid ****ing people that argue against us

I said that I did agree with the run totals being a fairly big deal. But there are about 500 less games played than at bats. So that .8 fastballs ends up being a ton. Just like the .3 runs ends up being more at the end of the year because there are more games to look at.

And again, I am not against metrics. I am against someone with a calculator trying to tell me these numbers are the be all and end all.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Yep. Use numbers unless they tell them that they are wrong. And then it's all about sample size, moving the goal post, etc.

Let the record show your side has claimed that 49 extra runs is negligible and 18 extra fastballs over a season is a "ton"

[shoeless joe]

Let's assume Frazier will see the same number of pitches this year as last.. 2297.

52% means he saw 1194 fastballs this year
52.8% means he'll see 1212 fastballs this season.

18 extra fastballs all year!!!

What if those 18 extra fastballs translate into 9 hits...and 9 RBI. Them they would be a pretty doggone big deal. Let's say he took all 18 of them. Then not so much.

it is all situational...

[shoeless joe]

Let the record show your side has claimed that 49 extra runs is negligible and 18 extra fastballs over a season is a "ton"

Problem is I'm not on anyone's "side". I agree the runs are a big deal. But I also think that speed influencing pitches is a big deal.

For the millionth time...stats are useful when applied in certain situations. Baseball knowledge is also useful but every single decision can't be made from a "gut feeling". Both approaches are correct in certain situations.

[Pioneer Dawg]

What if those 18 extra fastballs translate into 9 hits...and 9 RBI. Them they would be a pretty doggone big deal. Let's say he took all 18 of them. Then not so much.

it is all situational...

I'm not sure which is worse this or WinningIsRelentless (who made a 4 on the Math ACT) using the game YPC to determine overall YPC in this classic thread http://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread...ancake-Edition

[Todd4State]

Let the record show your side has claimed that 49 extra runs is negligible and 18 extra fastballs over a season is a "ton"

And let the record show that you have proclaimed that Jacob Lindgren would be a first round pick, that Fredi Gonzalez was stupid for hitting BJ Upton lead off even though it spurned a long win streak, and that Daniel Garner would hit SEC pitching despite striking out nearly every at bat, excuse me plate appearance, and have never played the game.

[Todd4State]

Problem is I'm not on anyone's "side". I agree the runs are a big deal. But I also think that speed influencing pitches is a big deal.

For the millionth time...stats are useful when applied in certain situations. Baseball knowledge is also useful but every single decision can't be made from a "gut feeling". Both approaches are correct in certain situations.

Yep. You have to be able to apply both to be honest with you. The stats and things like that are a guide, but you also have to know what your players can and can't do, what their strengths are and what they are doing that is "unseen" that isn't going to show up in the stats.

That's why KB21 is better at sabermetrics and stats than Pioneer is. He has the ability to see both sides and can present it appropriately without trying to skew something to fit his agenda.

[Dawg61]

Somehow this debate has morphed into how many fastballs Todd Frazier is seeing. That's just a portion of the reason why Frazier is suddenly an All-Star this year when last year he was not. How about how many hits he's gotten because the defense is worried about Hamilton and can't shift or how many hits he's gotten while Hamilton is attempting to steal leaving a huge hole on the 2b/1b side or how many pitches in the zone is he seeing with Hamilton on base or how much effect does Hamilton have by taking the pitchers concentration off the batter and worried about him stealing? None of these questions can be answered easily but you've got to make the assumption at this point that Billy Hamilton is having an effect on Todd Frazier AND Devin Mesoraco imo too. Todd Frazier in 2013 had 63 R 19 HR 73 RBI and 6 SB. This year he's got before the ASB 53 R 17 HR 47 RBI and 13 SB. Billy Hamilton is going to help Frazier make an extra 60-80 million dollars at this rate. And let's not forget who the Reds had leading off last year too. Shin-Soo Choo whose considered an elite leadoff hitter. Todd Frazier 2014 is destroying Todd Frazier 2013.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Todd Frazier hitting .298 with bases empty.. .274 with men on base.

Dawg61 you are a damn fine traditionalist but the two others here are giving your kind a bad image.