Don't look now Braves fans

[KB21]

I haven't watched the Reds but maybe twenty games this year and Billy Hamilton has created more runs himself than I can count. Speed absolutely matters. A walk for him turns into a triple very quickly and it's no coincidence that Todd Frazier has suddenly become arguably the best 2 hole hitter in the NL. Frazier gets pumped fastballs so the catcher can have just a slight bit of chance to throw out Hamilton and Frazier ain't been missing many. I saw Hamilton tag up and score on a popup on the edge of the grass where the 2b plays. I had to watch it three times I couldn't believe what I just saw. Try to explain how speed doesn't matter when you are on base after watching this.

This is why we have numbers. The bolded part is not true. Frazier has been thrown a fastball 52.8% of the time, up a whopping 0.8% from last year when he saw a fastball 52% of the time. Contrary to the traditional though, having speed on the bases does not increase the amount of fastballs thrown to hitters behind the speed guy.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Never ever ever ever ever tell me about runs scored or RBI when talking about "norms". Those are results, NOT statistics. Like pitcher W-L record.

[KB21]

The problem folks like you aren't getting is that last year wasn't anywhere close to the normal BJ. This year is much closer to the normal BJ and it's still way below his norm. He's a career .245 hitter that scores in the mid 80s runs per year and can steal a lot of bases. Never high RBI, but does have a high strikeout rate which sucks. So he's still not where he should be.

What happens if he hits .235 this year which would still be his 2nd lowest BA of his career? He's at .214 right now. Is that impossible? Is it possible he's turned a corner? We keep him in the lineup and over the next 2 1/2 months he might could raise his BA 20 points? Means he's getting things done and will be averaging at least one hit a game. You do that in front of Simmons, Freeman, Upton, and Gattis and I think I will be ok with that.

Obviously this isn't going to continue at the pace it's going right now. But if BJ is able to cut his strikeouts down, shorten his swing, and be less reckless early in the count, he could do what I stated above. He's beginning to do some of that already and it's paying off. It's a wait and see thing, but I just understand some of you so opposed to us keeping BJ at lead off when it is clearly helping the team right now. As a baseball person, you should be able to see that what he is doing RIGHT NOW is helping the team score more runs.

I don't care if he hits .290, if he is still a sub .300 OBP guy, he is a liability.

[MetEdDawg]

Speed matters of course but not as much as on base in the lead off spot. More important than speed is actual base running ability. Adam Jones is known as a very good baserunner without racking up the SB that others do. SB% > number of bags stolen.. See Yasiel Puig

Percentages are very misleading. Tell me who the better base stealer is: A guy with a 100% SB% or a guy with a 82.3% SB %. The first guy is Brian McCann from 2012, who attempted all of 3 SB that year. The second one is BJ Upton, who is 14/17 on the year for 2014. But since McCann had a higher SB % that means he's got a higher propensity to be successful at stealing bases in certain situations? Laughable. It's all about sample size and % doesn't tell you anything about sample size. Brian McCann had a 100% SB % in 2012. But is he a better base stealer than BJ Upton? Absolutely not.

It's like asking what the relative humidity is outside. Well it's 85%. What does that tell me? Nothing because I don't even know how hot it is. 85% relative humidity in 90 degree weather is a hell of a lot different than it is in 40 weather. That's why percentages are very misleading. You almost never have the full picture.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Percentages are very misleading. Tell me who the better base stealer is: A guy with a 100% SB% or a guy with a 82.3% SB %. The first guy is Brian McCann from 2012, who attempted all of 3 SB that year. The second one is BJ Upton, who is 14/17 on the year for 2014. But since McCann had a higher SB % that means he's got a higher propensity to be successful at stealing bases in certain situations? Laughable. It's all about sample size and % doesn't tell you anything about sample size. Brian McCann had a 100% SB % in 2012. But is he a better base stealer than BJ Upton? Absolutely not.

It's like asking what the relative humidity is outside. Well it's 85%. What does that tell me? Nothing because I don't even know how hot it is. 85% relative humidity in 90 degree weather is a hell of a lot different than it is in 40 weather. That's why percentages are very misleading. You almost never have the full picture.

You have to look at it without being ignorant.

[MetEdDawg]

Never ever ever ever ever tell me about runs scored or RBI when talking about "norms". Those are results, NOT statistics. Like pitcher W-L record.

They are statistics. Now they are dependent upon how others on your team do which is different than sabermetrics which is typically more individual driven, but they also explain how a person performs over the course of a given period of time. Then you take the average of them all and you can figure out what they can be expected to do. That's the absolute definition of a statistic. You may not like that, but it is a statistic.

You 100% all in on sabermetric folks have redefined what you think are the "real" statistics to make the rest of the baseball world who trust their eyes and their gut and their observational skills feel like they don't know anything. I'm way too informed to allow that crap as are most others on here. Statistics don't take into account extra work in the cage, corrective eye surgery, injuries that may or may not be disclosed, mental changes by changing a person's position in a line up. Until they come up with statistics for those things, the eye test and the gut will still be viable tools in baseball.

[MetEdDawg]

You have to look at it without being ignorant.

Not ignorant, just proving you wrong. Saying SB% is greater than number of stolen bases is absolutely ridiculous. Obviously Brian McCann isn't a better base stealer than BJ Upton, but under your thinking that it is, he could be just looking at the way one statistic is displayed.

What if La Stella goes 0-15 over the course of 4 games in the lead off spot for the Braves. He would still have a higher OBP and BA than Upton. Is he still the better option in lead off?

I would love for you to find me an example as grossly horrible as the one I gave you towards the argument that # SB > SB %. You won't be able to.

The problem is this fight will never be resolved. Sabermetric people will always find some statistic or some historical post to say why something in the short term won't work in the long term, even though what's working in the short term is beneficial for the team. Eye test and gamers will look at the short term and adjust on a day to day or series by series basis. Probably lose extra games in the process due to their inability to step away from the situation and look at what guys have typically done over their career.

[KB21]

They are statistics. Now they are dependent upon how others on your team do which is different than sabermetrics which is typically more individual driven, but they also explain how a person performs over the course of a given period of time. Then you take the average of them all and you can figure out what they can be expected to do. That's the absolute definition of a statistic. You may not like that, but it is a statistic.

You 100% all in on sabermetric folks have redefined what you think are the "real" statistics to make the rest of the baseball world who trust their eyes and their gut and their observational skills feel like they don't know anything. I'm way too informed to allow that crap as are most others on here. Statistics don't take into account extra work in the cage, corrective eye surgery, injuries that may or may not be disclosed, mental changes by changing a person's position in a line up. Until they come up with statistics for those things, the eye test and the gut will still be viable tools in baseball.

So tell me this. BJ continues his .275 OBP average over the coarse of the next few weeks. However, Freddie Freeman goes into a slump and it takes Evan Gattis a while to get going once he comes off the DL. As a result, BJ Upton isn't scoring runs at as high of a clip. He's doing the same thing he is currently doing from the lead off position, which is getting on base rarely, but the guys behind him isn't knocking him in. Is BJ now less effective as a player since he is scoring runs at a lower rate even though he's doing everything else the same as he was?

[Dawg61]

This is why we have numbers. The bolded part is not true. Frazier has been thrown a fastball 52.8% of the time, up a whopping 0.8% from last year when he saw a fastball 52% of the time. Contrary to the traditional though, having speed on the bases does not increase the amount of fastballs thrown to hitters behind the speed guy.

Well something is helping Frazier this year and that something is Billy Hamilton being on base in front of him is my guess. Maybe they can't afford to have both of them on in front of Votto, Meso and Bruce. Idk but Frazier is out of his skull this year.

[MetEdDawg]

So tell me this. BJ continues his .275 OBP average over the coarse of the next few weeks. However, Freddie Freeman goes into a slump and it takes Evan Gattis a while to get going once he comes off the DL. As a result, BJ Upton isn't scoring runs at as high of a clip. He's doing the same thing he is currently doing from the lead off position, which is getting on base rarely, but the guys behind him isn't knocking him in. Is BJ now less effective as a player since he is scoring runs at a lower rate even though he's doing everything else the same as he was?

No he's not less effective. His teammates are being less effective and anyone who knows anything about baseball could see that. That still doesn't negate the fact that runs are a statistic. Does it negatively affect BJ's runs scored even though he's not directly involved with the decrease in runs scored? Absolutely. But that doesn't necessitate change on BJ's part. That's why most managers wouldn't make a change with BJ but to Freeman. Day off, change his spot in the line up, something like that. It was pretty easy to tell that Freeman was sucking it up when his BA dropped almost 25 points in 2 weeks back in early June. We struggled then and didn't score runs.

But until that happens there's no need to adjust anything. What you said is going to happen at some point and it could be tomorrow and last a week. BJ may not get on again the next week or Freeman may go 0 fer with BJ on base and our runs/game goes down the toilet. We all know that right now BJ isn't a lead off hitter. You ideally want a higher OBP, a higher BA, and a better contact bat. But why change right now when what he's doing is helping the team the way it is? Might it screw us a few games if he slumps and Fredi doesn't adjust? Probably. But you don't mess with something that's working like it is right now.

[KB21]

Well something is helping Frazier this year and that something is Billy Hamilton being on base in front of him is my guess. Maybe they can't afford to have both of them on in front of Votto, Meso and Bruce. Idk but Frazier is out of his skull this year.

That something is BABIP. He has a .330 BABIP this year, where it was .269 a year ago. He's more lucky this year. All his other peripherals are around the same. The guy has always been a good hitter, but Dusty Baker would never give him the opportunity he deserved. Todd had a .225 ISO and a 121 wRC+ in his first full MLB season.

[msstate7]

Dan Uggla still holds a roster spot, making the Braves play with a 24 man roster while Phil Gosselin is tearing AAA up. Fredi is slow to make the moves he needs to make.

Jordan Schafer still has a roster spot while Todd Cunningham is a better hitter than both Jordan and BJ Upton at this point, but he's still in AAA because Fredi is slow to make a move.

How long did it take to get La Stella in the line up consistently? He should have been the starting 2B on opening day.

Do you actually think fredi is the one making the decision to hold on to uggla?

[KB21]

No he's not less effective. His teammates are being less effective and anyone who knows anything about baseball could see that. That still doesn't negate the fact that runs are a statistic. Does it negatively affect BJ's runs scored even though he's not directly involved with the decrease in runs scored? Absolutely. But that doesn't necessitate change on BJ's part. That's why most managers wouldn't make a change with BJ but to Freeman. Day off, change his spot in the line up, something like that. It was pretty easy to tell that Freeman was sucking it up when his BA dropped almost 25 points in 2 weeks back in early June. We struggled then and didn't score runs.

But until that happens there's no need to adjust anything. What you said is going to happen at some point and it could be tomorrow and last a week. BJ may not get on again the next week or Freeman may go 0 fer with BJ on base and our runs/game goes down the toilet. We all know that right now BJ isn't a lead off hitter. You ideally want a higher OBP, a higher BA, and a better contact bat. But why change right now when what he's doing is helping the team the way it is? Might it screw us a few games if he slumps and Fredi doesn't adjust? Probably. But you don't mess with something that's working like it is right now.

My point is, going with the hot hand is a foolish decision the large majority of the time. If you want to optimize things and put yourself into a position to have sustained success, you make the change that needs to be made. If you wait, like Fredi typically does, then you may just cost the team a playoff spot.

It's really not a novel concept to put your best on base guy in the lead off spot, because him getting on base is the most important aspect of his job.

[KB21]

Do you actually think fredi is the one making the decision to hold on to uggla?

Does he make the final decision? No. Does he have input on the decision? As my son said at supper tonight, "you betcha".

[msstate7]

Does he make the final decision? No. Does he have input on the decision? As my son said at supper tonight, "you betcha".

Uggla still being a brave is on wren/liberty. How many at bats has fredi given uggla? Since 6/11, FG has let uggla hit 11 times. No way this is fredi's decision

[Pioneer Dawg]

Frazier has gotten much better with his plate discipline. Time with Votto well spent. Not swinging at balls has improved his game.

As to Upton he's actually swinging at more balls out of the zone this year as opposed to last. Check his plate discipline numbers of old compared to now and you will see why he won't be retuning to old BJ. Contact% still drastically down from old BJ. His contact rate is on balls in the zone is down 10% from his 2011 good year. Line drive % is down from last years debacle.

[Todd4State]

You have to look at it without being ignorant.

What Pioneer says when he loses an argument. Again.

[Dawg61]

There's a reason why every manager from college to MLB pinch runs later in the game when they don't have speed on base. Just getting on base isn't enough. I'd take BJ Upton on 1st base 3 out of 10 times over a slow guy 4 out of 10 times because BJ can stay out of double plays better, steal a base better, go from 1st to 3rd better, tag up and move to the next base better, score from 2nd on a hit better, tag up and score better and score on a squeeze/sacrifice better to make up for that 1 less time he's on base. The other 3 times he's a better scoring player than the slow guy. After saying all of that I do think the Braves need to go get a leadoff hitter and another SP. BJ is not the answer for the entire season and when it comes time for the playoffs or the final push for the playoffs the Braves need a more reliable player at the top imo.

[Todd4State]

Does he make the final decision? No. Does he have input on the decision? As my son said at supper tonight, "you betcha".

Most of what you are talking about falls on the GM. It's not as cut and dried as this guy sucks, this guy looks better- even though that's what is should be about. There are salary implications on both the veteran and the minor league player because once you call up the minor league guy his clock starts. And the minor league guy is someone that has zero or very little MLB experience so, the odds are you aren't going to get all that much more production than a guy that you are already paying a couple of million dollars to at the MLB level is risky at best. Plus, you have to consider whether a guy is on the 40 man roster or not and then you have to make corresponding moves, which may mean releasing a guy that your team may not want to put out there.

[Pioneer Dawg]

What Pioneer says when he loses an argument. Again.

1. You yourself have talked about the rate needed to be considered effective at stealing bases which is what I'm saying. But keep that "cred" up Toddy boy. Cool points all around.

2. 49 extra runs when the playoffs come down to a very small number of games separating teams MIGHT just come in handy. That was one of the more asinine posts I've seen. But then again people opposing me in these arguments routinely spout idiotic things.