RPI Watch- The Second Half of the SEC Season Starts Now

[CaptainObvious]

Based on who we have left, State needs to win 5 of 6 home SEC games. And hope to get 2 of 6 on the road at Texas and A&M. A tall order for sure. If State goes 3-3 at home a host is not even deserved and may be a blessing. The way our SEC opponents rise up to play in Dudy Nobile, and State doesn?t, a road Trip to a Top 16 seed would be deserved. Time to step up to close out the season 15 games left. Need to go 9-6 and not lose midweek to Memphis or Nicholls.

After starting the season 25-4, to end up 39-16 wouldn?t be a travesty but by going 14-12 to end the season would certainly prove this team was never a Top 8 team but should get a host at 17-13 SEC.

[HoopsDawg]

Our problem right now with hosting is that there are 6 SEC teams inside the Top 10 in RPI currently. That doesnt include Georgia who is leading the SEC right now. Lots of RPI watching these last 4 weekends

The SWAC schools are hurting us. I argue every year with you and Todd about this. Yall say just win the games. Well, we are 20-2 nonconference with losses to UCLA and USM. But we are only 17th in RPI thanks to those 3 SWAC games currently 290, 296, and 305. Those games hurt.

[HoopsDawg]

Currently OM sits at 6 in RPI. USM is sitting at 12 while we are at 18. The reason they are ahead of us even though both have slightly worse records is because OM has a SOS of 4 and USM has a SOS of 7 while our SOS sits at 33. THIS is why we HAVE to stop playing 3 SWAC games in a season. Some of these other teams we choose to play OOC go up and down in RPI from year to year but you know from the start that ANY SWAC team you play will be a constant drag on your RPI. Could end up costing us a hosting spot if we are borderline like we are now.

Exactly! I should have read this post before I made mine. Our fans drive me crazy defending this non-sense.

[Todd4State]

Currently OM sits at 6 in RPI. USM is sitting at 12 while we are at 18. The reason they are ahead of us even though both have slightly worse records is because OM has a SOS of 4 and USM has a SOS of 7 while our SOS sits at 33. THIS is why we HAVE to stop playing 3 SWAC games in a season. Some of these other teams we choose to play OOC go up and down in RPI from year to year but you know from the start that ANY SWAC team you play will be a constant drag on your RPI. Could end up costing us a hosting spot if we are borderline like we are now.

Ole Miss played Jackson State and Alcorn State too. They're being helped a lot by having played Missouri State and sweeping them. In other words they did a good job of guessing.

[Todd4State]

The SWAC schools are hurting us. I argue every year with you and Todd about this. Yall say just win the games. Well, we are 20-2 nonconference with losses to UCLA and USM. But we are only 17th in RPI thanks to those 3 SWAC games currently 290, 296, and 305. Those games hurt.

No, we're 18th because we have 3 Q2 losses and 7 Q1 losses. Florida lost to Bethune Cookman and they're 9 in RPI. It appears to me as if getting swept to Tennessee is hurting us more than anything honestly.

I wouldn't be surprised if we make a jump if we beat Memphis and Arkansas beats Missouri State on Tuesday but that's looking at things in a tunnel.

[Rawdawg]

No, we're 18th because we have 3 Q2 losses and 7 Q1 losses. Florida lost to Bethune Cookman and they're 9 in RPI. It appears to me as if getting swept to Tennessee is hurting us more than anything honestly.

I wouldn't be surprised if we make a jump if we beat Memphis and Arkansas beats Missouri State on Tuesday but that's looking at things in a tunnel.

The Tennessee series is killing our RPI. We dropped from the single digits into the 20s. Based off of pear rating projections we?re 3 games behind our predicted record vs our metrics. Usually teams are 1-2.5 off their predicted record but 3+ is kinda rare which tells me we had some very dumb and unlucky shit happen.

[Activated Alpha]

The Tennessee series is killing our RPI. We dropped from the single digits into the 20s. Based off of pear rating projections we?re 3 games behind our predicted record vs our metrics. Usually teams are 1-2.5 off their predicted record but 3+ is kinda rare which tells me we had some very dumb and unlucky shit happen.

Those teams didn?t have Birmingham go against them. Now we shouldn?t have even given the umps and the compromised SEC any chance to affect the game but we did in both Georgia and Tenn. I firmly believe if we had gotten the correct call on the double play Friday against Tenn we would have had the momentum to win the game

[Coach34]

Exactly! I should have read this post before I made mine. Our fans drive me crazy defending this non-sense.

We have Texas/A&M/Auburn- #'s 2/8/5 in RPI. Our SOS wont be a problem come Tourney time. Our number of wins will be what decides it

[HoopsDawg]

We have Texas/A&M/Auburn- #'s 2/8/5 in RPI. Our SOS wont be a problem come Tourney time. Our number of wins will be what decides it

Why cant you just admit its dumb to play 3 SWAC schools? LOL. You 100% know they are going to hurt your SOS.

[HoopsDawg]

No, we're 18th because we have 3 Q2 losses and 7 Q1 losses. Florida lost to Bethune Cookman and they're 9 in RPI. It appears to me as if getting swept to Tennessee is hurting us more than anything honestly.

I wouldn't be surprised if we make a jump if we beat Memphis and Arkansas beats Missouri State on Tuesday but that's looking at things in a tunnel.

Florida plays FSU 3 times in the non-conference. We cant do anything about Tennessee RPI but we know what the SWAC RPIs are going to be.

And yes, our SOS will improve the rest of the season but it will not get to where it could have been. The committee relies on RPI for seeding too much for us to be so dumb. Hopefully BOC will correct this issue.

[Coach34]

Because I dont agree with that. I think it does wonders for your team to relax and just go play. Almost everybody on the team gets in- so that also helps team morale.

We play in the SEC- our SOS will be fine. Getting swept at home 2 TIMES will be why we dont host if we dont get to 17 wins- not a SWAC game. If we win 1 game each weekend we are still in the Top 10 in RPI. Losing games kills RPI

[Activated Alpha]

I am unfortunately predicting we get swept because we are State and they of course are LSwho

[HoopsDawg]

Because I dont agree with that. I think it does wonders for your team to relax and just go play. Almost everybody on the team gets in- so that also helps team morale.

We play in the SEC- our SOS will be fine. Getting swept at home 2 TIMES will be why we dont host if we dont get to 17 wins- not a SWAC game. If we win 1 game each weekend we are still in the Top 10 in RPI. Losing games kills RPI

You are always going to lose games though, lol.

You are moving the goalposts posts. You said it was bc we lost those non-conference games to crappy teams. Well this year we are 20-2 non-conference. With no bad losses.

This is an easy pothole to avoid with just a little common sense. We should be Top 10 RPI right now instead of 18th.

[BrunswickDawg]

The SWAC schools are hurting us. I argue every year with you and Todd about this. Yall say just win the games. Well, we are 20-2 nonconference with losses to UCLA and USM. But we are only 17th in RPI thanks to those 3 SWAC games currently 290, 296, and 305. Those games hurt.

It's conference losses to Tennessee that are hurting - combined with not having played the meat of our SEC schedule yet. Ark being #32, UGA #30, UT #31, Vandy #72, and SC #88 skews the front half of our season. LSU at #65 won't help.
But #6 OM, #2 Texas, #5 Auburn, and #8 A&M will bump it. Which is why it does ultimately come down to winning games - and in particular SEC games.

Everyone plays stinkers. Texas and UF may be the only exceptions of the SEC teams ahead of us in RPI.
Bama has 2 against Bama St. #234; Auburn has West GA #235, Bama St #234; OM has Jackson St #290, Alcorn #305, UT-Martin #246; a&m had 3 with Tenn. Tech #244, 3 with #265 Oakland, and Prairie View at #302.
Mid-week scheduling is heavily influenced by what teams are around you and what their travel schedule is. It's why you see OM, Bama, and Auburn playing very similar teams in non-con mid-week games.

[HoopsDawg]

Just dont play 3 SWAC schools. It really is that simple. There are plenty of teams in a 5 hour radius that arent guaranteed to be 290 or worse in the RPI.

[Homedawg]

Why cant you just admit its dumb to play 3 SWAC schools? LOL. You 100% know they are going to hurt your SOS.

yes, it hurts SOS thats not why we are where w are in rpi. And honestly, all you can replace them with is quad 4 games anyway, bc its gonna be home games. Games with delaware, and lipscomb are worse, played them 3 times each and they are both in the 200+ in rpi as well. But everyone plays those games. The Ut series is the kiler at present.

[Activated Alpha]

Just sweep LSU, Texas, A&M, and Auburn and our RPI will be a moot point

[BrunswickDawg]

Just dont play 3 SWAC schools. It really is that simple. There are plenty of teams in a 5 hour radius that arent guaranteed to be 290 or worse in the RPI.

There really aren't. I count 25 potential non-P3 schools within about 5-6 hours of Starkville - USM, Memphis, Jacksonville St., UAB, Jackson St., Alcorn, Valley, Grambling, Ala A&M, Al State, Southern, Troy, Murray, UNA, West GA, Austin Peay, Kennesaw, Samford, GA State, Tulane, UNO, Nicholls, La Tech, La-LA, SEMO. Kicking SWAC takes that to 19. We typically play 24 OOC games. With 2 Gov Cup games, 1 Biloxi game, 3 games in a neutral site weekend in TX, and 1 road game headed east for an SEC game, that leaves 17 home dates to fill. There is no way fill 17 home dates with a pool of only 19 schools within 5-6 hours of Starkville. Even throwing in "pass thru" teams travelling across the area on their way to a conference foe it's hard to do.

Just look at Feb 17/18 when we played Troy and Alcorn. Assume other teams that played in our general area those 2 days were our primary pool of teams to draw from for the schedule.
Samford and Alabama St @ Bama; Jackson St and Arkansas St @ OM; and SE Louisiana @ USM. Choosing out of that group, eliminate Samford (we played later), Jackson St. (we play later), and Troy (2nd time). That leaves Alabama St (SWAC) #234, SE Louisiana (Southland) #85, Arkansas St. (SunBelt) #37. So maybe we could have pulled SE or Ark St instead? Maybe not.

If you look at March 17/18 when we played Jackson St., options are even less. Other area games were Nichols #106 @ USM, Austin Peay #143 @ OM; and Bama @ USA #80. We already had AP and USA on the schedule, leaving Nichols as the only other choice - whom we played last season when they were #198.

When you start dialing in on available teams and dates, you start to see how tough it can be creating the schedule.

[Coach34]

There really aren't. I count 25 potential non-P3 schools within about 5-6 hours of Starkville - USM, Memphis, Jacksonville St., UAB, Jackson St., Alcorn, Valley, Grambling, Ala A&M, Al State, Southern, Troy, Murray, UNA, West GA, Austin Peay, Kennesaw, Samford, GA State, Tulane, UNO, Nicholls, La Tech, La-LA, SEMO. Kicking SWAC takes that to 19. We typically play 24 OOC games. With 2 Gov Cup games, 1 Biloxi game, 3 games in a neutral site weekend in TX, and 1 road game headed east for an SEC game, that leaves 17 home dates to fill. There is no way fill 17 home dates with a pool of only 19 schools within 5-6 hours of Starkville. Even throwing in "pass thru" teams travelling across the area on their way to a conference foe it's hard to do.

Just look at Feb 17/18 when we played Troy and Alcorn. Assume other teams that played in our general area those 2 days were our primary pool of teams to draw from for the schedule.
Samford and Alabama St @ Bama; Jackson St and Arkansas St @ OM; and SE Louisiana @ USM. Choosing out of that group, eliminate Samford (we played later), Jackson St. (we play later), and Troy (2nd time). That leaves Alabama St (SWAC) #234, SE Louisiana (Southland) #85, Arkansas St. (SunBelt) #37. So maybe we could have pulled SE or Ark St instead? Maybe not.

If you look at March 17/18 when we played Jackson St., options are even less. Other area games were Nichols #106 @ USM, Austin Peay #143 @ OM; and Bama @ USA #80. We already had AP and USA on the schedule, leaving Nichols as the only other choice - whom we played last season when they were #198.

When you start dialing in on available teams and dates, you start to see how tough it can be creating the schedule.

Scheduling is always easy until you are the one doing it. Especially when you're good

[Brobi-wan]

Based on who we have left, State needs to win 5 of 6 home SEC games. And hope to get 2 of 6 on the road at Texas and A&M. A tall order for sure. If State goes 3-3 at home a host is not even deserved and may be a blessing. The way our SEC opponents rise up to play in Dudy Nobile, and State doesn?t, a road Trip to a Top 16 seed would be deserved. Time to step up to close out the season 15 games left. Need to go 9-6 and not lose midweek to Memphis or Nicholls.

After starting the season 25-4, to end up 39-16 wouldn?t be a travesty but by going 14-12 to end the season would certainly prove this team was never a Top 8 team but should get a host at 17-13 SEC.

With the way we play at home, do we even want to host?