The Thing Everyone Needs to Understand About the Transfer Portal Era

[ShotgunDawg]

Transfers are more valuable than HS recruits because they can't transfer again.

Only sign HS players that have a chance to make your two deep & then try to find transfers with 3-4 years of eligibility left so you can develop players.

That's the new era of roster building. Stinks for HS recruits, but that's the rules

[Fader21]

They are more valuable because most teams have already done prospect reports on these players because of their first time being recruited. They also can call up their buddies at other institutions and get a more "realistic opinion" on the student-athlete than from a HS coach that sometimes might not be 100% truthful.

The real truth is it won't hurt your High 3 star and up recruits. Colleges will still sign these players. The worst people it hurts is your JUCO route players that are fully qualified that might be late developers.

[smootness]

The vast majority of players still don't transfer. HS recruits have plenty of value.

[Johnson85]

The vast majority of players still don't transfer. HS recruits have plenty of value.

I think it's going to be a few years before people figure out what the optimal balance is. And it's going to be different for different types of colleges. I think the blue bloods still need to go heavy on high school recruits with a few spots open to back fill holes with players from other blue bloods that are good but just have a crowded position. Not sure how often this is going to be anything other than QB.

I think schools like Mississippi state are going to need to keep the most spots open for transfers. We will be a desirable landing spot for highly rated recruits that get lost in the shuffle at blue bloods and for bigtime G5 players that want to prove they can play at a higher level. But even then, you can't go too heavy because those transfers may not materialize. As more players realize transferring isn't a panacea, there might be a meaningful drop in quality transfers. I am guessing the right mix for MSU (assuming the start enforcing the 25 scholly limit again soon) will be something like 18 high school recruits and 7 transfers. Really going to be hard to take a lot of chances on JUCO players if they have an option to transfer out, but what JUCOs are available may impact that mix a little.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Transfers are more valuable than HS recruits because they can't transfer again.

Only sign HS players that have a chance to make your two deep & then try to find transfers with 3-4 years of eligibility left so you can develop players.

That's the new era of roster building. Stinks for HS recruits, but that's the rules

I would love to see a study done showing how well these kids do and especially the ones that leave multiple times

[Cooterpoot]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

[Dak Holliday]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

You will pass on a 4 star that hadn?t gotten in the top 2 at Bama, UGA, OSU, etc but has spent a yr with elite coaches, trainers, practices with 4 yrs left that is secure over a 3star right out of HS that if he turns out to be a gem can transfer to Bama, UGA, OSU, etc? It?s all subjective. There?s definitely upside to the portal that we need to embrace.

[confucius say]

Transfers are more valuable than HS recruits because they can't transfer again.

Only sign HS players that have a chance to make your two deep & then try to find transfers with 3-4 years of eligibility left so you can develop players.

That's the new era of roster building. Stinks for HS recruits, but that's the rules

That's risky considering less than 15% of players enter the portal. You are limiting your available targets.

Also, you are completely dependent on the portal every year. If there is a year without a big portal selection you are screwed bc you have nothing but freshmen and have not developed any HS talent.

I still think the right balance is about 18-20 HS kids and 5-7 portal guys, give or take.

[Johnson85]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

I feel like if you have a Junior coming from a Blue blood program that is sitting behind a likely draft pick, that is as good or better roll of the dice than most JUCOs. If they're at a position of need, I think that will normally be a no brainer for us. Even better if they decide with three years of eligibility that they're tired of sitting the bench.

[HoopsDawg]

That's risky considering less than 15% of players enter the portal. You are limiting your available targets.

Also, you are completely dependent on the portal every year. If there is a year without a big portal selection you are screwed bc you have nothing but freshmen and have not developed any HS talent.

I still think the right balance is about 18-20 HS kids and 5-7 portal guys, give or take.

Yeah, 18 and 7 seems about right to me.

[Dak Holliday]

Yeah, 18 and 7 seems about right to me.

I?m inclined to agree with you. That?s a good mix

[Jack Lambert]

The portal can save your ass if you get in a bind.

[KOdawg1]

The portal can save your ass if you get in a bind.

It can also leave you in a mess.

It giveths and takeths away

[thf24]

Reminds me of something I was thinking about the other day along these lines, from the player's perspective - when you decide where you're going to transfer, you'd better make damn sure that's where you want to be for the rest of your undergraduate FBS career, and that you're doing it for the right reasons. If you jump and find yourself in a worse situation, you're not going to have a prayer at getting an offer while having to sit a year next to the several hundred other guys at your position who don't.

[coachnorm]

When perceiving the portal and grasping who is talking to who, take this into account. Players and fellow students communicate on social media. Players are getting together, possibly at parties or Team Viewer, and brainstorming who should go to where ever. Due to social media portal strategies are evolving in many methods.

The reason why I am bringing this to the ED members is I have seen this first hand when my players have shown this type of social media chatter to me personally. High school football players have bragged that they are going to determine future championships by getting together personally. Players upon their own motions are strategizing who they are going to influence to play together with. Parents might even find themselves and discuss matters over a beer or two.

Take notice of the two scenarios that I have introduced and notice that a coach was not mentioned. This type of team building is currently happening in major urban high school football without meaningful input from coaches and boosters. Rural geography can slow this down if there are only one or two football programs in an immediate area. Now a day even rural high school players get phone numbers and email addresses while attending college and NFL camps that they commute to. When players that have played this game in high school football get to college it is just a continuation of past behavior.

College football players from different teams do social media between themselves. If a player has a personal friend unhappy at his current team, there will be networking done to support a friend. To many a college football team is a stopover to the pros and nothing else.

When I was coaching at Southwestern JUCO in 2007 there were players from rival Grossmont JUCO in my residential area. There were six Grossmont players, from the Southeast, crammed into a two bedroom apartment nearby. Whenever I would shop at Costco, I would buy them bulk sausages or something similar and give them something to eat. Sometimes they would get on each other’s nerves and text me if they could stop by to clear their heads. Sometimes they needed to get onto the internet to send in class assignments.

One day Jimmy Pinkney, from Tallahassee, a Grossmont JUCO player texted me and asked if he could bring a new arrival at Grossmont over. Jimmy brought over L.J. Brown from Miami who just finished 4 years in the Navy. L.J. Brown had a conflict with the Grossmont defensive line coach. After Jimmy brought L.J. over, I notified my head coach of my contact. L.J. just enrolled at Grossmont JUCO but had not been formally rostered therefore the Southwestern head coach met with L.J. at his office.

In short Grossmont JUCO players rallied for L.J. Brown which caused a relationship with another coach which caused L.J. to leave Grossmont JUCO and play for its rival Southwestern. BTW L.J. Brown got a scholarship to UTEP. Strangely, both Grossmont and Southwestern football players partied together the evening of the Grossmont vs Southwestern game in 2007? I wonder how many “Portal Parties” are happening, without coaches or boosters, currently and will happen in the future. Also, I wonder how may NIL deals will occur without coaches or boosters involved. Thought I would share something with fellow Elitedoggers. BTW, wasn’t Aaron Rodgers a JUCO guy?

[R2Dawg]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

There are some diamonds to find but as a whole I tend to agree. Portal only to meet needs or holes. Kinda like JUCO but maybe to a lesser degree even. We still need to get the best JUCOs IMHO.

[bulldawg28]

The portal can save your ass if you get in a bind.

It saved Ole Miss last year!

[Catfish]

It saved Ole Miss last year!

And it might save them this year.

[ShotgunDawg]

The vast majority of players still don't transfer. HS recruits have plenty of value.

HS recruits can up & leave after 1 semester. It's hard to develop & coach them correctly. You can't really de-recruit them like a coaching staff needs to be able to do

[ShotgunDawg]

I would love to see a study done showing how well these kids do and especially the ones that leave multiple times

Agree. It will be interesting to see where things stand in a few years.