Too early to start talking divisional tiebreakers?

[Quaoarsking]

Of course it is, but I'm going to do it anyway.

We are currently 3-2 in the SEC. If we were to win our remaining games, we would finish 6-2 in the conference. If Alabama were to also lose twice, they would drop to 5-3. We would win the West and play in Atlanta, because no one else in the conference would be better than 6-2 and we would have the tiebreakers over Texas A&M and Auburn if we need it.

But it's pretty unlikely that Alabama loses twice with only LSU, Arkansas, and @Auburn on their schedule. What if Auburn loses to us and then beats Alabama, causing a 3-way tie at 6-2? In that case, Auburn would go to Atlanta on the strength of their 5-1 division record, compared to us and Alabama being 4-2.

What if that happens, but Texas A&M beats Auburn, causing a 3-way tie between us, Alabama, and Texas A&M? We would all be 4-2 against the division and 1-1 against each other. The next tiebreaker is to go down the division standings to see who has the best win. So in that scenario, it's likely Auburn coming in 4th, so Alabama would be eliminated and we would go to Atlanta because we beat Texas A&M. However, we would be eliminated if LSU finishes 4th, sending A&M to Atlanta, and if Arkansas finishes 4th, A&M is eliminated, sending Alabama to Atlanta. If it's Ole Miss finishing 4th, we would all 3 have a win over them, so it would go to who finishes 5th.

Conclusion: If (and that's a big, big if) we finish 6-2, we have a better shot at winning the West than anyone realizes. It does not require Alabama to lose twice - there is a plausible path of Alabama losing only once and Texas A&M winning out that probably sends us to Atlanta.

[Quaoarsking]

This is our path to Atlanta in graphical form:



The ones in green have to happen. The ones in yellow are part of the scenario, but we still win the West if they don't.

[QuadrupleOption]

That would be hilarious given the meltdowns from our fanbase earlier in the season. However, I don't see Alabama losing again. Auburn is not that good.

[PikeDawg15]

I dont see it happening cause I don't think Auburn will beat bama.... they could at jordan haire.... but ....

5 teams in the west are all still alive

Alabama, auburn, Miss St, Ole miss, and Texas A&M

All bama has to do is win out basically

All auburn has to do is win out

State wins the west if State wins out... Texas A&M wins out.... Auburn wins the Iron bowl... Thats the scenario for us

Texas A&M wins the west if A&M wins out and Alabama loses the iron bowl ( or Arkansas).... Also A&M needs state to lose again

[Homedawg]

There's a better chance that Bernie Sanders would oppose abortion than us winning the west.

[Saltydog]

There's a better chance that Bernie Sanders would oppose abortion than us winning the west.

Yep and there's also a much greater chance of finishing last than first......