These are the CFP rankings from the week before conference championship games this past year. I think it's a safe bet that CCGs go away under a 16-team playoff format.
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
8. Wisconsin (10-2)
9. Florida (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
11. Auburn (9-3)
12. Alabama (10-2)
13. Oregon (10-2)
14. Michigan (9-3)
15. Notre Dame (10-2)
16. Iowa (9-3)
I also assume that there is going to be an autobid for each conference, so we only need to select 11 of these. (Memphis, Boise State, and Appalachian State were all 11-1 at this point.)
I think the top 9 are all easily in. I suspect Alabama (despite the Iron Bowl loss) and Oregon at probably the last 2. I would strongly support using some kind of objective, mathematically valid formula over a biased committee, but selection committees are how every other sport at every level does it, so that's probably what we get.
Is anyone here really telling me you wouldn't watch the hell of out this- I did my best to seed like I think the Committee would have, knowing that it's a 16-team format:
16. Miami OH (7-5) @ 1. Ohio State (12-0)
9. Florida (10-2) @ 8. Alabama (10-2)
12. Memphis (11-1) @ 5. Utah (11-1)
13. Boise State (11-1) @ 4. Georgia (11-1)
14. Appalachian State (11-1) @ 3. Clemson (12-0)
11. Oregon (10-2) @ 6. Oklahoma (11-1)
10. Wisconsin (10-2) @ 7. Baylor (11-1)
15. Florida Atlantic (9-3) @ 2. LSU (12-0)
Seven of the eight first round games are interesting.
- Florida @ Alabama with a matchup against Ohio State on the line!
- Memphis @ Utah, Georgia @ Boise State: You think the G5 team is sure to lose, but are they? Memphis has had a knack for beating P5 teams lately, and we all remember what happened the last time Boise State played Georgia.
- Appalachian State @ Clemson seems like a snoozer, but Appalachian State already beat South Carolina and North Carolina (a team 1 point away from beating Clemson) earlier this year.
- Oregon @ Oklahoma, Wisconsin @ Baylor: two exciting matchups between great teams.
- Obviously LSU beats FAU and it's probably not close, but the Kiffin storyline is there.
- Yeah, Miami/Ohio State is gonig to be a snoozer. Usually the best MAC team is better than 7-5, but that's not how it worked out in 2019. This is actually going to be a rematch of a game that Ohio State won in a blowout in the regular season. However, it is a reward for Ohio State to get such a scrub in their first game. It's good to have tangible rewards for teams to keep playing for late in the year. This way, you don't see teams sitting starters late in the year.
And that's just the first weekend. They would stagger these on the schedule to make sure it's possible to watch all 8 of them. After that awesome weekend, the next week we get:
- Either Florida or Alabama going to Columbus to try to take down Ohio State. (Personal prediction - Alabama wins.)
- Probably Utah @ Georgia, but who knows. No matter what, it's a good matchup of 12-1 teams.
- Either Oregon or Oklahoma traveling to Clemson. Should be a good one.
- LSU hosting either Baylor or Wisconsin. LSU surely wins, but also probably a good one.
Another awesome weekend. I think it's better than 50-50 that one of the 3 undefeated teams loses, and we're all glued to our TVs the whole time.
Then we get these semifinals, which could be at neutral sites, though I'd be fine with keeping them at higher seeds:
- Probably Alabama vs. Georgia, although Ohio State definitely could be in there in Alabama's slot
- Probably Clemson vs. LSU
The main takeaways here:
- The regular season is still awesome under this format. There's not a single regular season game that's less meaningful. Yes, Alabama still gets in despite the Iron Bowl loss, but their road becomes MUCH harder. Florida and Wisconsin lost their big games and have a much tougher road than LSU and Ohio State.
- No one doubts the legitimacy of the national champion. If Alabama knocks out 4 straight teams, no one begrudges them at 14-2.
- In some years you might get a 9-3 team in there as an at-large, but you usually don't. Looking back to 2014, only in 2018 was it not possible to set up a bracket where all of the at-larges were at least 10-2. Remember, this is going back the records before the conference championship games since they probably go away under this format. A lot of good teams pick up their third loss in there.
- Every team has a shot. Giving every conference an autobid is important because no one can claim a P5 bias. In fact, I think under this format they should get rid of the P5/G5 distinction and just have 10 conferences. Yes, the former P5 conferences are going to get most if not all of the at-larges, but hypothetically there shouldn't be a barrier to San Diego State going 11-1 with a loss to 12-0 Wyoming and still getting selected.
- The 14/15/16 teams are never going to win. Like, if we had the same system in place for 200 years, it's unlikely that any of them would reach the final 4 even once, much less win the title. And that's OK. It gives an extra reward for the top teams to keep playing for.
- On the other hand, a team like Boise State or UCF could hypothetically go undefeated and get a good seed and who knows.
- We would have made it in 2014, probably as the 8 seed, matched up against 9 seed like Michigan State or Georgia Tech (hopefully not). Assuming we don't blow a home game in round 1, we would have a chance at redemption in Tuscaloosa in the second round. Get by that and we probably take the national title.
- Ole Miss might have snuck in 2014 or 2015, but both years they were 9-3 and it is possible to set up brackets without them. We wouldn't have been in the mix in 2015, but the 2017 Egg Bowl would have been more heartbreaking, as it would have knocked us out of playoff contention. (Though we probably still don't get selected at 9-3, but we'd at least have had a theoretical shot going into that last weekend if some other teams ahead of us lost.) We would have been safely in in 2018 with a competent coach who doesn't lose to Kentucky and Florida.
- We would all watch every minute of this. We would all love every minute of this.
Originally Posted by chef dixon
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