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Thread: Easter Sunday Severe?

  1. #101
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    Oh...wanted to make sure to add this. Tornadoes are NOT the only threat from this system. There will be considerable flash flooding and there will be high winds. How high? Can't really say but it'll be enough to destroy stuff. If you have anything planned outside for Easter, I'd reconsider if you're within the risk area. As always, pay attention to watches and warnings. Your local meteorologists and National Weather Service offices will have the best information.
    Good point Ref.. was going to post those images also





    Last edited by ScoobaDawg; 04-12-2020 at 03:18 AM.

  2. #102
    Official Elitedawg Weather Forecaster TheRef's Avatar
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    So NWS Jackson just put out their forecast discussion for the area. Some interesting things were mentioned. So this will be a two-pronged attack by the system. The first will be in the morning and will consist of mostly some light to moderate showers. A few wind threats here and there from that system. However, the longer that sticks around, the less impactful the "main event" will be. Jackson has drawn a provisional line from Natchez, through Jackson, and onto Columbus. Their thinking is the highest threat is mainly North of this line. Now that's not to say that the Southern portion can't see some action, but it's not going to be the main threat here.

    For you nerds who enjoy the numbers, EHI are predicted to be around 400 with a strong low-level shear we have a good chance of tornadic activity if everything lines up. The true cold front is expected to arrive around midnight and that's when the engine will be officially turned off for the area. This is going to be a long, drawn-out event. If you see a good amount of clear skies and sunlight, don't smile. That's not the best situation to be in. The more sunny skies you get, the more fuel is being added.
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  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    So NWS Jackson just put out their forecast discussion for the area. Some interesting things were mentioned. So this will be a two-pronged attack by the system. The first will be in the morning and will consist of mostly some light to moderate showers. A few wind threats here and there from that system. However, the longer that sticks around, the less impactful the "main event" will be. Jackson has drawn a provisional line from Natchez, through Jackson, and onto Columbus. Their thinking is the highest threat is mainly North of this line. Now that's not to say that the Southern portion can't see some action, but it's not going to be the main threat here.

    For you nerds who enjoy the numbers, EHI are predicted to be around 400 with a strong low-level shear we have a good chance of tornadic activity if everything lines up. The true cold front is expected to arrive around midnight and that's when the engine will be officially turned off for the area. This is going to be a long, drawn-out event. If you see a good amount of clear skies and sunlight, don't smile. That's not the best situation to be in. The more sunny skies you get, the more fuel is being added.
    No sun here - yet. And looking at the cloud cover it doesn't look like it'll break up any time soon. There's a spot between B'ham and Huntsville that looks thinner, but otherwise clouds look solid over the entire southeastern quadrant

  4. #104
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Alternator in my truck looks to be shot. Got to scramble to see if I can get it replaced or my chase day is over before it starts.

  5. #105
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  6. #106
    Super Moderator BeastMan's Avatar
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    How’s the Jackson metro looking today? The radar looks like the main stuff might go above us

  7. #107
    Senior Member Bubb Rubb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastMan View Post
    How’s the Jackson metro looking today? The radar looks like the main stuff might go above us
    It's going to be stormy but the worst of this will go north of Jackson, I think. I would put Tupelo and Starkville in the cross hairs, and over in Northern Alabama, the worst case scenario is lining up.

  8. #108
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    Thanks Bubb - I have son driving from Jackson to Starkville later today. What appears to be the timing on this event?

  9. #109
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    Well the system is starting to get its act together. Tornado warnings and TStorm warnings in the arklatex moving down 20.

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    If you have a chance go to Reed Timmer twit, He is streaming in Shreveport driving down 20.

  11. #111
    Senior Member EngDawg's Avatar
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    SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion indicating 95% chance or watch issuance across MS.

    Can one of the meteorologist on here confirm that the SPC seems to think that south MS will have the greatest threat from discrete cells where they think it will be mainly QLCS in North Central? I tried to decipher the discussion, but I?m not a weather guy by trade...

  12. #112
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    STAY SAFE. PDS watch issued

    The
    @NWSSPC
    has issued a Particuarly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch till 8PM. 90% chance of a tornado, while 80% chance of a significant tornado in the watch area.





    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0106.html
    SEL6

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 106
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1040 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Far southeast Arkansas
    Northeast Louisiana
    Northern and central Mississippi

    * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1040 AM until
    800 PM CDT.

    ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

    * Primary threats include...
    Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
    Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
    Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

    SUMMARY...Intense bowing line with a history of several tornadoes in
    northwest Louisiana will progress rapidly east-northeast this
    afternoon. Additional semi-discrete suprecells may develop ahead of
    the line as well across parts of northern and central Mississippi.
    Environment is supportive of several tornadoes, some of which will
    likely be strong in addition to potential widespread damaging winds.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
    north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Monroe LA
    to 20 miles south of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the
    watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
    Last edited by ScoobaDawg; 04-12-2020 at 11:04 AM.

  13. #113
    Senior Member Bubb Rubb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harrydawg View Post
    Thanks Bubb - I have son driving from Jackson to Starkville later today. What appears to be the timing on this event?
    Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.

    I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.

  14. #114
    Senior Member shoeless joe's Avatar
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    Rain and thunder in golden triangle now. Is this the rain that could help prevent the worst case scenario? Or has that ship sailed?

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb View Post
    Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.

    I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.
    I would not rule out jackson yet. the warm front continues to push north and clearing all the way up to yahzoo city right now. As the sun comes out, the instability will build up.



  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by shoeless joe View Post
    Rain and thunder in golden triangle now. Is this the rain that could help prevent the worst case scenario? Or has that ship sailed?
    Possibly. as noted, depending on how long the skies clear allowing the atmosphere to build up.

  17. #117
    Senior Member Bubb Rubb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg View Post
    Possibly. as noted, depending on how long the skies clear allowing the atmosphere to build up.
    Yeah, possibly, but we're not necessarily going to need clearing to rebuild the atmosphere. That warm sector pushing north is not going to need much help.

  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb View Post
    Yeah, possibly, but we're not necessarily going to need clearing to rebuild the atmosphere. That warm sector pushing north is not going to need much help.
    Watch the temps and dewpoint.

  19. #119
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    Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.

  20. #120
    Official Elitedawg Weather Forecaster TheRef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb View Post
    Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.
    20 homes reporting damage so far in Monroe, LA
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