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Thread: Path to a Regional

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    Path to a Regional

    As unlikely as it may be, I think this is what has to happen for us to have any hope of making the postseason:

    2 wins vs USC. This will be hard, but may be possible with Loftin in the rotation plus some guys having some good outings (Holcombe, KC, Nixon back, Cade?). The question is can the coaches figure out how to make reasonable pitching moves and can the infield play defense? Yet to be seen. We are due for a good series though.

    Sweep Alabama. Not easy, but we will have to sweep somebody, and they?re probably our best shot left on the schedule.

    Win 2/3 against Ole Miss. If we take care of USC and Bama as I?ve outlined, I actually like our chances of this because we will finally believe in ourselves. I also won?t be against our complete ownership of Ole Miss until that streak ends.

    That gets us to 7-8. Then we have to go .500 the rest of the year which is a tall order in of itself. But hey, baseball is a weird sport. Could happen! Hail State.

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    Senior Member StarkVegasSteve's Avatar
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    You actually beat me to posting this. I got to thinking about it late last night after the game as I was packing to head to Houston for the Final Four. If we were to suspend reality and say that a miracle that would make 2018 look like a nice winning streak is even possible I believe this would be the path.

    USCe- We have to sweep. You could survive with 2/3 but would need to steal a win somewhere else.
    @Bama- 2/3. Would love a sweep but I will never predict a road sweep in this conference. They are reeling from a hot start and we need to take advantage of that.
    Ole Miss- Gotta sweep. 2/3 at the worst.
    This is where it starts getting dicey and miracles need to happen:
    @Auburn- You gotta have 2/3 because of what is coming up.
    @Tennessee- You have to find a way to get 1. 1/3 would be a victory and probably makes up for not sweeping either OM or USCe.
    Arky- A VERY tall task but you need to get 2/3 because of the behemoth waiting the next week.
    @LSU- We will get swept. There is no way around it. Getting 1/3 would be a miracle in itself.
    A&M- Again I feel like a broken record, but you need 2/3 and really need a sweep.

    So all that gives you a best case miracle happened and Chris Lemonis needs a statue record of 15-15 which would be 15-9 in our last 24. Realistically we need 13-17 or 14-16 overall record to feel like we have a chance. It is a razor thin margin and I do not believe it will happen. But I am a Mississippi State fan so I have found those razor thin margins for years. We have done it once, 2018.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GolfDawg View Post
    As unlikely as it may be, I think this is what has to happen for us to have any hope of making the postseason:

    2 wins vs USC. This will be hard, but may be possible with Loftin in the rotation plus some guys having some good outings (Holcombe, KC, Nixon back, Cade?). The question is can the coaches figure out how to make reasonable pitching moves and can the infield play defense? Yet to be seen. We are due for a good series though.

    Sweep Alabama. Not easy, but we will have to sweep somebody, and they?re probably our best shot left on the schedule.

    Win 2/3 against Ole Miss. If we take care of USC and Bama as I?ve outlined, I actually like our chances of this because we will finally believe in ourselves. I also won?t be against our complete ownership of Ole Miss until that streak ends.

    That gets us to 7-8. Then we have to go .500 the rest of the year which is a tall order in of itself. But hey, baseball is a weird sport. Could happen! Hail State.
    Google maps is your best bet. They can tell you the path to all 16 locations?even if you decided to bike or walk to them.

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    Everyone wants to be a beast...until its time to do what beasts do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve View Post
    You actually beat me to posting this. I got to thinking about it late last night after the game as I was packing to head to Houston for the Final Four. If we were to suspend reality and say that a miracle that would make 2018 look like a nice winning streak is even possible I believe this would be the path.

    USCe- We have to sweep. You could survive with 2/3 but would need to steal a win somewhere else.
    @Bama- 2/3. Would love a sweep but I will never predict a road sweep in this conference. They are reeling from a hot start and we need to take advantage of that.
    Ole Miss- Gotta sweep. 2/3 at the worst.
    This is where it starts getting dicey and miracles need to happen:
    @Auburn- You gotta have 2/3 because of what is coming up.
    @Tennessee- You have to find a way to get 1. 1/3 would be a victory and probably makes up for not sweeping either OM or USCe.
    Arky- A VERY tall task but you need to get 2/3 because of the behemoth waiting the next week.
    @LSU- We will get swept. There is no way around it. Getting 1/3 would be a miracle in itself.
    A&M- Again I feel like a broken record, but you need 2/3 and really need a sweep.

    So all that gives you a best case miracle happened and Chris Lemonis needs a statue record of 15-15 which would be 15-9 in our last 24. Realistically we need 13-17 or 14-16 overall record to feel like we have a chance. It is a razor thin margin and I do not believe it will happen. But I am a Mississippi State fan so I have found those razor thin margins for years. We have done it once, 2018.
    Barring a freakish turnaround in just days, I don?t see us winning any agains USCe.

    We just don?t have ?it?. ?It? can happen but I?ve seen nothing since last year that would show me it is possible.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    I have to admire your optimism.

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    Senior Member StarkVegasSteve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    I have to admire your optimism.
    It's the only thing you can have in these situations. We can be optimistic that a miracle could happen, but also optimistic to know that if things continue down this path then we'll have a new staff in 2024.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GolfDawg View Post
    As unlikely as it may be, I think this is what has to happen for us to have any hope of making the postseason:

    2 wins vs USC. This will be hard, but may be possible with Loftin in the rotation plus some guys having some good outings (Holcombe, KC, Nixon back, Cade?). The question is can the coaches figure out how to make reasonable pitching moves and can the infield play defense? Yet to be seen. We are due for a good series though.

    Sweep Alabama. Not easy, but we will have to sweep somebody, and they?re probably our best shot left on the schedule.

    Win 2/3 against Ole Miss. If we take care of USC and Bama as I?ve outlined, I actually like our chances of this because we will finally believe in ourselves. I also won?t be against our complete ownership of Ole Miss until that streak ends.

    That gets us to 7-8. Then we have to go .500 the rest of the year which is a tall order in of itself. But hey, baseball is a weird sport. Could happen! Hail State.
    Whew, that lot of ifs but I admire your optimism.

    We should be maybe 3-3 to be in mix for regional after 6 SEC games so we are 3 in hole. That ain't that bad but how we are 0-6 is what knocks our legs from under us. Losing Cade, KC, Pico and Nixion were big losses early when we had a young inexperienced group but still no excuse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leroy Jenkins View Post
    Man, you beat me to this meme.

    I will try to be faster when someone starts talking about "Hosting" a regional

  10. #10
    Senior Member basedog's Avatar
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    I hate to say but it's iffy we break the streak this weekend. I'd also wager all my vCash we want sweep anyone and I'd say the odds are against winning a series. I sure hope I'm wrong.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by basedog View Post
    I hate to say but it's iffy we break the streak this weekend. I'd also wager all my vCash we want sweep anyone and I'd say the odds are against winning a series. I sure hope I'm wrong.
    Yea like I said, I don't see. But if you're going to do it, then that's the path.

  12. #12
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    Pretty sure this thread was meant to be titled "Path to Hoover". Which is also pretty laughable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GolfDawg View Post
    As unlikely as it may be, I think this is what has to happen for us to have any hope of making the postseason:

    2 wins vs USC. This will be hard, but may be possible with Loftin in the rotation plus some guys having some good outings (Holcombe, KC, Nixon back, Cade?). The question is can the coaches figure out how to make reasonable pitching moves and can the infield play defense? Yet to be seen. We are due for a good series though.

    Sweep Alabama. Not easy, but we will have to sweep somebody, and they?re probably our best shot left on the schedule.

    Win 2/3 against Ole Miss. If we take care of USC and Bama as I?ve outlined, I actually like our chances of this because we will finally believe in ourselves. I also won?t be against our complete ownership of Ole Miss until that streak ends.

    That gets us to 7-8. Then we have to go .500 the rest of the year which is a tall order in of itself. But hey, baseball is a weird sport. Could happen! Hail State.

    Yeah I started off admiring your wildly unfounded optimism but have since realized that your delusion should be met with pity. I get it, I used to believe in Santa Clause...

  14. #14
    Senior Member TNDawg35's Avatar
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    There is a better chance we get swept against USCe than us winning 2/3. They are really good and are mashing homers. They lead the conference right now… Yall still remember we have no pitching. They are going to go in dry on us this wknd…

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    Senior Member SpaceWranglerDawg's Avatar
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    Lol....this team isn't going to a regional. This team likely isn't going to Hoover.

    If you honestly think we have a path to a regional based off what we've seen, the maroon colored glasses are working as intended.

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    I'll say this most of Cohens teams were iffy to Hoover. He had some good teams too. But only won 20 games on one occasion. We also hated Cohen too, he was the meddler. The IB that fumed but was pretty much just ok. Without looking Manieri probably had a 800 record on Cohen.

    I recall a 5-10 start to a season and then he went 11-4 on the flip side. Cohen had 4 losing SEC seasons in his 8 years as coach.

    What could work in MSU favor in 2023 is that people are going to get tired of beating them. So they may catch someone napping. I am thinking MSU wins 3 series this year. Just need to stop getting swept.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TNDawg35 View Post
    There is a better chance we get swept against USCe than us winning 2/3. They are really good and are mashing homers. They lead the conference right now? Yall still remember we have no pitching. They are going to go in dry on us this wknd?
    What I feel as well. They are going in on us with no lube and it will look similar to Vandy.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    The real question is does a winning season with no postseason keep Lemonis in place.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bulldawg989 View Post
    Yeah I started off admiring your wildly unfounded optimism but have since realized that your delusion should be met with pity. I get it, I used to believe in Santa Clause...
    I never said I thought it would have, actually said I thought it was very unlikely. I was just laying out what needed to happen.

  20. #20
    Senior Member SpaceWranglerDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    The real question is does a winning season with no postseason keep Lemonis in place.
    I don't see any way on earth Lemonis pulls out a winning season, no matter how you look at it. Unless there's drastic improvement over the course of an extremely short period of time, I'm not sure we win more than one series.

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