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Thread: Severe Weather Friday Round 2 - Fight

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Severe Weather Friday Round 2 - Fight

    Off the bat...this one doesn't look to park near the punch of last Friday even though there is still some forecast uncertainty. The core of this system will be further north so the best forcing and wind fields will be displaced to our north. However, the best moisture return will be down in our area noted by forecast mid 60's dew points. Wind shear will be good enough to support at some level of severe threat over MS...particularly the extreme NW part of the state where an enhanced risk resides with a slight risk covering the rest of the north and most of the central part of the state. Storm mode looks to be a mix of discrete supercells and linear. Timing is not nailed down yet but expect late afternoon into the overnight hours depending on your part of the state.
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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Thanks man.

    I'll keep an eye out on the Patreon site. The content on that site is extremely thorough and detailed. Y'all should all really consider hitting that link and subscribing. For a mere $5/month you get great information and can ask specific location questions on their message board. I'm glad I joined for sure.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    Thanks man.

    I'll keep an eye out on the Patreon site. The content on that site is extremely thorough and detailed. Y'all should all really consider hitting that link and subscribing. For a mere $5/month you get great information and can ask specific location questions on their message board. I'm glad I joined for sure.
    Mucho gracias. I can't go into any detail now, but a guy on our team has come up with what could revolutionize early warning for tornadoes in rural areas. It's a massively ambitious project, but if we can secure the means and permissions to do it...

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Mucho gracias. I can't go into any detail now, but a guy on our team has come up with what could revolutionize early warning for tornadoes in rural areas. It's a massively ambitious project, but if we can secure the means and permissions to do it...
    Man that would be fantastic!!

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    SVD you are the best man! You and James Spann.

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    Senior Member Dawg_Lover's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Mucho gracias. I can't go into any detail now, but a guy on our team has come up with what could revolutionize early warning for tornadoes in rural areas. It's a massively ambitious project, but if we can secure the means and permissions to do it...

    Well, from one that resides in the sticks, that is music to my ears. Will keep my fingers crossed.
    * Foghorn Leghorn-isms *

    > about as subtle as a hand grenade in a barrel of oatmeal.

    > more mixed up than a feather in a whirlwind.

    > gettin so deep the farmers have to jack up the cows so they can milk em.

    > making more noise than a couple of skeletons dancing on a tin roof.

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    Somewhat off topic for the upcoming system - but I know as the tornado approached Amory there was plenty of official NWS warning that likely saved many lives and injuries.

    How much official NWS warning was there for Rolling Fork? By the time it got through there, just about everybody had to be aware what was coming. The reason I ask is that I was watching TWC and it appeared to build up quite quickly, then hold together for for quite a time.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    Somewhat off topic for the upcoming system - but I know as the tornado approached Amory there was plenty of official NWS warning that likely saved many lives and injuries.

    How much official NWS warning was there for Rolling Fork? By the time it got through there, just about everybody had to be aware what was coming. The reason I ask is that I was watching TWC and it appeared to build up quite quickly, then hold together for for quite a time.
    Not sure but people on tv were saying they had 2 minutes notice. That's hard to believe unless these people just don't pay attention to the weather at all.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    As I was dropping south from Bolivar county I could tell when it was near Lake Providence the storm had some real potential. That's just 15 miles. I'm not sure when it went tornado warned. I think just before it hit Rolling Fork. That's the issue with these storms that move 60mph. It is on you before you know it. I covered that in my how to shelter video in that series on YouTube. People don't realize how fast these things cover distances when they're not beholden to roads. And people don't realize how close places are straight line. You then add in that even in the best of circumstances the radar images you're looking at are 3-5 minutes old and often times 8 or more. So say you live what takes you 15 miles or 20 minutes to drive on roads from where a tornado is on the ground moving 60mph. You think you have 15-20 minutes to take shelter or drive out of the path. That's your mindset. But straight line it's only 9 miles. So your 15 minute window is now 9 minutes. Then the radar image is 6 minutes old. Now your 15 minutes is 3 minutes. So by the time you grab your car keys and get your seatbelt buckled it's on top of you and too late.

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    Senior Member Dawg_Lover's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    As I was dropping south from Bolivar county I could tell when it was near Lake Providence the storm had some real potential. That's just 15 miles. I'm not sure when it went tornado warned. I think just before it hit Rolling Fork. That's the issue with these storms that move 60mph. It is on you before you know it. I covered that in my how to shelter video in that series on YouTube. People don't realize how fast these things cover distances when they're not beholden to roads. And people don't realize how close places are straight line. You then add in that even in the best of circumstances the radar images you're looking at are 3-5 minutes old and often times 8 or more. So say you live what takes you 15 miles or 20 minutes to drive on roads from where a tornado is on the ground moving 60mph. You think you have 15-20 minutes to take shelter or drive out of the path. That's your mindset. But straight line it's only 9 miles. So your 15 minute window is now 9 minutes. Then the radar image is 6 minutes old. Now your 15 minutes is 3 minutes. So by the time you grab your car keys and get your seatbelt buckled it's on top of you and too late.
    All excellent points for consideration. Remember the scaled mileage graphs at the bottom of printed maps, where maybe 1/4 inch equaled 10 miles? I wish that was included on the bottom of my downloaded weather radar. Of course, it would need to correct itself as you adjusted the size of the screen.
    * Foghorn Leghorn-isms *

    > about as subtle as a hand grenade in a barrel of oatmeal.

    > more mixed up than a feather in a whirlwind.

    > gettin so deep the farmers have to jack up the cows so they can milk em.

    > making more noise than a couple of skeletons dancing on a tin roof.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    As I was dropping south from Bolivar county I could tell when it was near Lake Providence the storm had some real potential. That's just 15 miles. I'm not sure when it went tornado warned. I think just before it hit Rolling Fork. That's the issue with these storms that move 60mph. It is on you before you know it. I covered that in my how to shelter video in that series on YouTube. People don't realize how fast these things cover distances when they're not beholden to roads. And people don't realize how close places are straight line. You then add in that even in the best of circumstances the radar images you're looking at are 3-5 minutes old and often times 8 or more. So say you live what takes you 15 miles or 20 minutes to drive on roads from where a tornado is on the ground moving 60mph. You think you have 15-20 minutes to take shelter or drive out of the path. That's your mindset. But straight line it's only 9 miles. So your 15 minute window is now 9 minutes. Then the radar image is 6 minutes old. Now your 15 minutes is 3 minutes. So by the time you grab your car keys and get your seatbelt buckled it's on top of you and too late.
    So when TV forecaster says it will hit you at ... say at 12:42 am ... does this mean it's really more like 12:36 instead?

    I would think their SW model calculations would take into account all the variables you typed in your description above.

    Appreciate it dude!

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    So when TV forecaster says it will hit you at ... say at 12:42 am ... does this mean it's really more like 12:36 instead?

    I would think their SW model calculations would take into account all the variables you typed in your description above.

    Appreciate it dude!
    Most of the time they'll only put those tracks up right after a scan update. But even then, most will say those are approximations. Storms speed up, slow down, and change direction. All can make a difference on when they arrive. But just for an example I pulled up my radar app on my phone and it was 7 minutes behind. I changed radars and it was 3 behind. So just those two at random had an average lag of 5 minutes. The reason for the lag is that one radar image you see is actually about 4 images stacked on each other. The radar makes a scan at different degrees. Each scan is called a tilt. The lowest angle, or tilt, 0.5 degrees. I'm drawing a blank at the others but it's done to give a look at much of the storm as possible. It takes time for the radar to make a scan, adjust up to the next tilt, make a scan, rinse and repeat through all four scans. Then it has to process that information and send it out to all the radar apps and software at news studios.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Most of the time they'll only put those tracks up right after a scan update. But even then, most will say those are approximations. Storms speed up, slow down, and change direction. All can make a difference on when they arrive. But just for an example I pulled up my radar app on my phone and it was 7 minutes behind. I changed radars and it was 3 behind. So just those two at random had an average lag of 5 minutes. The reason for the lag is that one radar image you see is actually about 4 images stacked on each other. The radar makes a scan at different degrees. Each scan is called a tilt. The lowest angle, or tilt, 0.5 degrees. I'm drawing a blank at the others but it's done to give a look at much of the storm as possible. It takes time for the radar to make a scan, adjust up to the next tilt, make a scan, rinse and repeat through all four scans. Then it has to process that information and send it out to all the radar apps and software at news studios.
    Thanks for the detailed response man. It helps to have a better understanding of all that.

    What's your gut telling you on how active this severe weather season will be?

    ETA: The reason I'm asking is I just watched a one of these YouTube guys that was using GFS I think that had 2 more troughs like the one at the end of this week coming through back to back to back with 3rd one potentially being the worst. I know it's hard to predict it that far out tho. Just was curious on your thoughts if you looked that far ahead.
    Last edited by dawgday166; 03-29-2023 at 12:36 AM.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    Thanks for the detailed response man. It helps to have a better understanding of all that.

    What's your gut telling you on how active this severe weather season will be?

    ETA: The reason I'm asking is I just watched a one of these YouTube guys that was using GFS I think that had 2 more troughs like the one at the end of this week coming through back to back to back with 3rd one potentially being the worst. I know it's hard to predict it that far out tho. Just was curious on your thoughts if you looked that far ahead.
    I've heard some guys saying it looks like it is going to be an active season and one saying there will be more tornado producing storms. Fact remains, they don't know. Right now we are in an active pattern. We have this Friday with a severe threat and then early next week another one is looking possible, but out past 5-7 days it's all a roll of the dice. Anybody using just the GFS to predict long range weather activity is just somebody looking for attention in my opinion.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    The SPC has expanded the enhanced risk to cover more of north MS as some of the models continue to show an uptick in intensity further south and east than earlier runs. The SPC mentions potentially intense and widespread severe weather possible Friday afternoon and night. Storm mode looks to favor and mixture of discrete supercells and linear convection. I still don't think things are looking like a repeat of last Friday, but things are trending stronger. That said, the synoptic set up is different with this storm than last week which is what I think will keep it from being not quite as intense as last week. I'm hoping I'm right about this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    I've heard some guys saying it looks like it is going to be an active season and one saying there will be more tornado producing storms. Fact remains, they don't know. Right now we are in an active pattern. We have this Friday with a severe threat and then early next week another one is looking possible, but out past 5-7 days it's all a roll of the dice. Anybody using just the GFS to predict long range weather activity is just somebody looking for attention in my opinion.
    It's not helpful when famed people like Reed Timmer are blabbing on about this spring looking like another 2011.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArrowDawg View Post
    It's not helpful when famed people like Reed Timmer are blabbing on about this spring looking like another 2011.
    And in a wonderful twist he was in twitter today talking down to people posting about the severe event early next week.

    I respect Reed for breaking off chases to help in search and rescue. He's done that for years. But he is the biggest hype machine out there. His version of Miracle on 34th St is every time he mentions the word outbreak an angel gets it's wings.
    Last edited by starkvegasdawg; 03-29-2023 at 06:17 PM.

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    Senior Member TNDawg35's Avatar
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    Looks like we Fixen to get punched in the mouth Fri afternoon up here in West TN

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    That angel gets its wings.comment was funny. Thanks for the laugh.

    And, agree on W TN, NW MS, & heard a little while ago maybe up into N MO & Iowa had a chance for severe storms.

    But, sounded like when it does move through it will be like a race horse on speed.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg_Lover View Post
    That angel gets its wings.comment was funny. Thanks for the laugh.

    And, agree on W TN, NW MS, & heard a little while ago maybe up into N MO & Iowa had a chance for severe storms.

    But, sounded like when it does move through it will be like a race horse on speed.
    I think MO and IA are going to bear the brunt of this system. North MS is on the southern periphery of the severe weather.

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