If this ends up busting and I look like a royal idiot for that thread title I will face the music for all the insults and ridicule you care to throw at me. I'm a big boy and can take it. But the latest wording from the SPC is scary. Potential tornado outbreak is looking likely late this afternoon and evening. The graphics haven't changed much so not posting them now. If an upgrade to a high risk happens I will update with it. This outbreak, if it happens, could have multiple strong to violent tornadoes. There is one model solution that is not so bullish, but SPC is saying the more extreme solution seems more plausible at this time. Per the 06Z HRRR, supercells will begin forming along the river around 5:00-6:00pm and move NE. These will quickly go severe and most likely tornadic. Once this event starts it is going to be with us until after midnight.
If the HRRR verifies, then particularly the NW portions of the state will see multiple tornadoes, some of which could be strong and a couple that could be violent if any discrete cells can get out on their own and sustain themselves. Anybody that has interests west of I-55 and north of I-20 need to pay very close attention today. Do not dismiss any warnings.

Let's all hope in 24 hours I'm here with all of you telling me I'm a drama queen over hyping events. I'll take that gladly over what has the potential to happen today.

I know a couple of us from the team will be out actively chasing this event so let us be the idiots today being out in this weather.

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