Life Threatening Severe Event Possible Today

[starkvegasdawg]

If this ends up busting and I look like a royal idiot for that thread title I will face the music for all the insults and ridicule you care to throw at me. I'm a big boy and can take it. But the latest wording from the SPC is scary. Potential tornado outbreak is looking likely late this afternoon and evening. The graphics haven't changed much so not posting them now. If an upgrade to a high risk happens I will update with it. This outbreak, if it happens, could have multiple strong to violent tornadoes. There is one model solution that is not so bullish, but SPC is saying the more extreme solution seems more plausible at this time. Per the 06Z HRRR, supercells will begin forming along the river around 5:00-6:00pm and move NE. These will quickly go severe and most likely tornadic. Once this event starts it is going to be with us until after midnight.
If the HRRR verifies, then particularly the NW portions of the state will see multiple tornadoes, some of which could be strong and a couple that could be violent if any discrete cells can get out on their own and sustain themselves. Anybody that has interests west of I-55 and north of I-20 need to pay very close attention today. Do not dismiss any warnings.

Let's all hope in 24 hours I'm here with all of you telling me I'm a drama queen over hyping events. I'll take that gladly over what has the potential to happen today.

I know a couple of us from the team will be out actively chasing this event so let us be the idiots today being out in this weather.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

[Dawg_Lover]

Thanks, SVD, for always looking out for us, trying to keep us safe. It seems we can hardly go a week lately without severe weather threats.

After just now reading about the dangers of living in Alaska, it made me put things in perspective. After all, they have snow, ice, isolation. earthquakes, people-eating grizzly bears, and mean moose that like nothing better than stomping the living daylights out of you. It made me stop and think, in comparison I will take the heat, humidity, fire ants, monster mosquitoes, aggravating armadillos, and even tornadoes any day.

Do not get me wrong. Alaska is a fascinating, beautiful state. Just not a place I want to live. I will stay right where I am, tornadoes, and all.

Again, thanks SVD for all you do.

[99jc]

If this ends up busting and I look like a royal idiot for that thread title I will face the music for all the insults and ridicule you care to throw at me. I'm a big boy and can take it. But the latest wording from the SPC is scary. Potential tornado outbreak is looking likely late this afternoon and evening. The graphics haven't changed much so not posting them now. If an upgrade to a high risk happens I will update with it. This outbreak, if it happens, could have multiple strong to violent tornadoes. There is one model solution that is not so bullish, but SPC is saying the more extreme solution seems more plausible at this time. Per the 06Z HRRR, supercells will begin forming along the river around 5:00-6:00pm and move NE. These will quickly go severe and most likely tornadic. Once this event starts it is going to be with us until after midnight.
If the HRRR verifies, then particularly the NW portions of the state will see multiple tornadoes, some of which could be strong and a couple that could be violent if any discrete cells can get out on their own and sustain themselves. Anybody that has interests west of I-55 and north of I-20 need to pay very close attention today. Do not dismiss any warnings.

Let's all hope in 24 hours I'm here with all of you telling me I'm a drama queen over hyping events. I'll take that gladly over what has the potential to happen today.

I know a couple of us from the team will be out actively chasing this event so let us be the idiots today being out in this weather.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

me thinks this is going to get very nasty. especially Jackson to Memphis.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, SVD! Y'all stay safe! Thanks for the info!

[SaintDawg]

There seems to be some uncertainty around this system from other weather outlets. I understand the possible overhype because you want folks to pay attention to it.

[gtowndawg]

Would you include Memphis in the threat? I have a daughter staying late for softball practice and would prefer she get home quick if Memphis is included. Thanks for the updates as always.

[DownwardDawg]

Would you include Memphis in the threat? I have a daughter staying late for softball practice and would prefer she get home quick if Memphis is included. Thanks for the updates as always.

I'm not a weather dude, but Memphis looks to be in the crosshairs to me.
I think my family and home on 84 in Covington county should be fine in this one. Worried about us in Sumner county Tennessee in the middle of the night.

Thanks Stark for all the threads brother. Stay safe out there but get us some good videos!!!

[Commercecomet24]

I'm not a weather dude, but Memphis looks to be in the crosshairs to me.
I think my family and home on 84 in Covington county should be fine in this one. Worried about us in Sumner county Tennessee in the middle of the night.

Thanks Stark for all the threads brother. Stay safe out there but get us some good videos!!!

Stay safe !

[DownwardDawg]

Stay safe !

You too man!!!
All my brothers and sisters in Mississippi stay safe!!!

[Commercecomet24]

You too man!!!
All my brothers and sisters in Mississippi stay safe!!!

Amen!

[Tater]

I'm not a weather dude, but Memphis looks to be in the crosshairs to me.
I think my family and home on 84 in Covington county should be fine in this one. Worried about us in Sumner county Tennessee in the middle of the night.

Thanks Stark for all the threads brother. Stay safe out there but get us some good videos!!!

I'm supposed to drive down 55 today / night to go to Starkville for the weekend. Be going through Memphis about 8-9. Should I adjust and aim to leave later?

Or aim to go through Jackson, TN and come down 45 instead?

[starkvegasdawg]

Try to answer all questions here.

Latest trend is for more of a squall line and less discrete cells. If that plays out then tornado threat will be slightly reduced.

Memphis will definitely be in the middle of things. Timing for Memphis looks to be 6:00-9:00. I hate that wide range but with the current disagreement on the models it's hard to get more specific. If it is mainly linear the later time will be more accurate. If we still get a discrete mode then the earlier time.

The Starkville area looks to be 9:00-midnight with the same caveat as Memphis.

[Commercecomet24]

Try to answer all questions here.

Latest trend is for more of a squall line and less discrete cells. If that plays out then tornado threat will be slightly reduced.

Memphis will definitely be in the middle of things. Timing for Memphis looks to be 6:00-9:00. I hate that wide range but with the current disagreement on the models it's hard to get more specific. If it is mainly linear the later time will be more accurate. If we still get a discrete mode then the earlier time.

The Starkville area looks to be 9:00-midnight with the same caveat as Memphis.

How you think it's looking for us down here in Jones County? Thanks for all you do!

[Commercecomet24]

I'm supposed to drive down 55 today / night to go to Starkville for the weekend. Be going through Memphis about 8-9. Should I adjust and aim to leave later?

Or aim to go through Jackson, TN and come down 45 instead?

Safe travels!

[starkvegasdawg]

How you think it's looking for us down here in Jones County? Thanks for all you do!

The further south the better as it looks now. Definitely still a severe threat, though.

[Commercecomet24]

The further south the better as it looks now. Definitely still a severe threat, though.

Thanks, appreciate all you do! And be safe out there today!

[basedog]

Thanks, appreciate all you do! And be safe out there today!

Just wear your catchers gear and you will be fine* LOL

[Commercecomet24]

Just wear your catchers gear and you will be fine* LOL

LOL! I've got a utility room full of catchers gear, helmets, bats, balls! I could start my own play it again sports!

[Tater]

Try to answer all questions here.

Latest trend is for more of a squall line and less discrete cells. If that plays out then tornado threat will be slightly reduced.

Memphis will definitely be in the middle of things. Timing for Memphis looks to be 6:00-9:00. I hate that wide range but with the current disagreement on the models it's hard to get more specific. If it is mainly linear the later time will be more accurate. If we still get a discrete mode then the earlier time.

The Starkville area looks to be 9:00-midnight with the same caveat as Memphis.

Thanks! Definitely a reason to take my time then lol.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm now headed west to stage somewhere in the delta. Probably Leland or Indianola. Right now just a pretty day but it won't last. SPC at least toying with a high risk upgrade as models are trending back towards a more discrete solution. If you see me come say or flip me off. I'm good with either.
Gentle reminder: once things get cooking I plan on live streaming on our patreon site.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS