Bubble Watch

[MetEdDawg]

So for today, we really need to pay attention to the following teams:

Team with last 4 Byes: USC, Boise State, West Virginia, Auburn

Teams not named MSU in Last 4 in: Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn State

Teams First 4 Out: Arizona State, North Carolina, Michigan, Utah State

These are the 11 teams that we are really in competition with for the final few spots in the tournament.

Next week will shift to tournament play and potential bid stealing. But a win today will likely put us in the Last 4 Byes. We also need to watch our Q1 and Q2 wins. Need teams like Marquette, TCU, Arkansas, Texas A&M to do well. A Texas A&M win over Bama would be huge.

[klong-dog]

Why would an A&M win be huge? Isn't it already considered a quad 1 win for us?

[MetEdDawg]

Why would an A&M win be huge? Isn't it already considered a quad 1 win for us?

Yes. But the committee doesn't look at just NET rankings and whether or not a win is a Quad 1 win. Who you beat outside of it just being labeled a Quad 1 win matters.

Beating a Texas A&M team that beats Alabama definitely looks better for us. You always want your good wins to keep winning because in the end if it comes down to a couple teams getting into a tournament that requires you to win, committee will look at the quality of teams who you beat.

[klong-dog]

Wasn't sure how that worked, since we played Bama twice and maybe needing them to stay a top seed, may would help sorda kinda negate those 2 losses.

[MetEdDawg]

Wasn't sure how that worked, since we played Bama twice and maybe needing them to stay a top seed, may would help sorda kinda negate those 2 losses.

They will be a 1 seed regardless and their NET likely won't drop below 4 or 5.

[msstate7]

Our line has really moved. It opened state -1, and now it's state -3.5. That's a pretty substantial move

[Dawghouse]

Their 7 footer being out is probably moving more money our way.

[ZedFedder]

It?s a really good feeling to even be in this position.

[civildawg]

All the teams that we needed to lose today have won. We are going to be hanging on by the skin of our teeth even with a win.

[msstate7]

Auburn punching their ticket

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Next year maybe don?t lose to UGA and UF.

[msstate7]

All the teams that we needed to lose today have won. We are going to be hanging on by the skin of our teeth even with a win.

You know what's gonna happen. Nothing ever works out for us

[msstate7]

Next year maybe don?t lose to UGA and UF.

Georgia beat auburn and Kentucky too
Florida beat mizzou and Tenn too

[RLM38654]

You know what's gonna happen. Nothing ever works out for us

No it doesn't. West Virginia probably just got in with a win over KSU. Win tonight and still be last 4 in.

[msstate7]

I'm holding out hope that we win, ark loses, and it's ark in the play-in game, not us

[PGHBulldogBG]

We are in big trouble. I think we are out now if we don’t win tonight. Auburn punched their ticket. So did WVU. I don’t see us getting in now unless we win tonight and Thursday. If we lose tonight we have to win Thursday and Friday for a chance. We put ourselves in this position losing to a below average Florida team at home. I knew when we lost that game it was going to be almost impossible to make the tournament. This is basically 2018 all over again. We have to start scheduling better in the non conference

[Quaoarsking]

Yeah, we're probably out if we lose and probably in if we win tonight. It's not 100% on either, but very likely.

[RLM38654]

It just seems to me when we win we move up a few spots in the bracketology, then the nights we don't play, we just move back to our original spot, and do it all over again. Memphis moved out of the last 4 byes with a win over a slaw SMU team. State wouldn't have moved up with a win like that. MSU should be ahead of Rutgers, USC and NC State IMO.

[msstate7]

It just seems to me when we win we move up a few spots in the bracketology, then the nights we don't play, we just move back to our original spot, and do it all over again. Memphis moved out of the last 4 byes with a win over a slaw SMU team. State wouldn't have moved up with a win like that. MSU should be ahead of Rutgers, USC and NC State IMO.

I get caught up in lunardi's stuff too, but we gotta remember he doesn't pick the teams. Let's win, and hope we get a spot

[dawgday166]

You know what's gonna happen. Nothing ever works out for us

I get caught up in lunardi's stuff too, but we gotta remember he doesn't pick the teams. Let's win, and hope we get a spot

This is why I don't pay too much attention to it all or the discussions about it. If we stay hot we'll be ok.

Regardless of all that, if any team loses 1st game of their conference tourney, they almost never making it out of 1st weekend of NCAA. So regardless of what we do today, we need to win 2 in SEC tourney for us to have higher probability of making it out of 1st weekend of NCAA IMO. Personally, I prefer not limping into NCAA after losing 1st game of SEC tourney. I'll take a bid regardless tho.