Bubble Watch

[StarkVegasSteve]

How Missouri is locked in as a 6th seed is weird if we are fighting for our lives to even make a play-in game

Five Q1 wins and they're perfect against Q2, Q3, and Q4. They also have an RPI of 34. We have 4 Q1 wins, but we have 2 losses in Q2 and a loss in Q3(Georgia). Our RPI is also a tad high at 57

[smootness]

2018 - we were tied for 7th in the SEC (9-9/22-11) Bama (8-10,19-15) and A&M (9-9, 20-12), who were both behind us in the SEC got in.
2012 - we were 6th in the SEC (8-8, 21-11)
2010 - we won the West (9-7, 23-11) Florida (9-7, 21-12) got in instead

All those are years real similar to this one from a record standpoint. '12 wasn't huge snub, but we had been ranked a good bit. '18 we really should have been in.

2010 we were on the bubble but projected out by most before the Tournament field was announced. Only 4 SEC teams made it in.

2012 we were right on the edge.

2018 we weren’t even really a bubble team. Looking back at Bracketology’s, nobody even mentioned us. Records aren’t created equally and the non-conference matters a ton in college basketball. Conference record doesn’t really matter too much, it?s who you beat and who you don’t over the full course of the season. Also the makeup of the conference changes, so these records between years don’t mean that much.

Everyone currently has us in, so if we won out and missed, it would be a shock. If we split this week, we’ll be in a similar boat to 2012. If we lose both, we’ll basically be where we were in 2018.

[smootness]

How Missouri is locked in as a 6th seed is weird if we are fighting for our lives to even make a play-in game

Their resume is clearly better than ours.

[BrunswickDawg]

2010 we were on the bubble but projected out by most before the Tournament field was announced. Only 4 SEC teams made it in.

2012 we were right on the edge.

2018 we weren’t even really a bubble team. Looking back at Bracketology’s, nobody even mentioned us. Records aren’t created equally and the non-conference matters a ton in college basketball. Conference record doesn’t really matter too much, it?s who you beat and who you don’t over the full course of the season. Also the makeup of the conference changes, so these records between years don’t mean that much.

Everyone currently has us in, so if we won out and missed, it would be a shock. If we split this week, we’ll be in a similar boat to 2012. If we lose both, we’ll basically be where we were in 2018.

I'd don't disagree. But, I bet if you comb the message board archives though, our fans were making a lot of the same "Win and we are 100% in" type comments (which is what my post was really about).
Bracketology and NET has made this a lot easier to project then the old days. But, as long as humans are making the selections there is always the chance for the snub.

[smootness]

I'd don't disagree. But, I bet if you comb the message board archives though, our fans were making a lot of the same "Win and we are 100% in" type comments (which is what my post was really about).
Bracketology and NET has made this a lot easier to project then the old days. But, as long as humans are making the selections there is always the chance for the snub.

So there are 2 questions: did those teams do all we said they needed to do, and did the people who said that base it on actual information? My guess is no to at least 1 of those. I said last week we needed to finish 3-1 to feel confident, 2-2 would be on the line but possibly in, and 1-3 we’re out. If we win both this week, that’s 3-1 and we should still be in, based on the information out there. It would be a shock in that case to miss - not just to uninformed fans, but to everyone.

[Lord McBuckethead]

A NET of 38 has never been left out of the field. And the media seems to love us.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Win both this week & we’re in. That’s the long & short of it. Win 1 (SC) & we’re in going into the SEC tourney but a win or 2 would make us feel better.

[Cowbell]

Win both this week & we?re in. That?s the long & short of it. Win 1 (SC) & we?re in going into the SEC tourney but a win or 2 would make us feel better.

Well if it ain't the prodigal son***

[Captain Falcon]

So there are 2 questions: did those teams do all we said they needed to do, and did the people who said that base it on actual information? My guess is no to at least 1 of those. I said last week we needed to finish 3-1 to feel confident, 2-2 would be on the line but possibly in, and 1-3 we?re out. If we win both this week, that?s 3-1 and we should still be in, based on the information out there. It would be a shock in that case to miss - not just to uninformed fans, but to everyone.

In 2018 we lost our last two regular season games when most thought we needed both, and then went 1-1 in Nashville.

In 2012 we lost 5 of 7 to finish the regular season but all we had to do was not lose to a terrible Georgia team AGAIN in our first SECT game and we probably still get in. Welp, guess what we went and did.

In 2010 we lost our last two regular season games, one to a bad Auburn team and then another when Tennessee boat raced us on our home court. Did make a run in the SECT but then the John Wall lane violation no call happened.

So in all of those cases we finished poorly on some or all levels. Another poor finish this year would certainly hurt us but I think we?ll be fine if we beat SC and Vandy. And still have a chance even if we lose to Vandy.

[Quaoarsking]

No one on Selection Sunday thought we had any chance to get in in 2012 or 2018. We were a 4 seed in the NIT both years, not even close to a bid.

2010, though, yeah that sucked. A lot of bracketologists had us in.

[chef dixon]

Our resume is solidly stronger than almost all other teams being mentioned on the cut line. If we win both of the last two games we are going to be a 7 or 8 seed

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Our resume is solidly stronger than almost all other teams being mentioned on the cut line. If we win both of the last two games we are going to be a 7 or 8 seed

Naw we’re not getting that high. Win both & we’re a solid 10 maybe 9 seed. Win a couple in the SEC Tourney on top of that then we maybe could make it to 8 line.

[msudawg1200]

I'd don't disagree. But, I bet if you comb the message board archives though, our fans were making a lot of the same "Win and we are 100% in" type comments (which is what my post was really about).
Bracketology and NET has made this a lot easier to project then the old days. But, as long as humans are making the selections there is always the chance for the snub.

Yeah, and we didn't win in those years. We crapped our pants down the stretch, especially in 2012. We went from safely in and about a 6 seed to losing 6 of 8 to finish the season and losing to an absolute crap Georgia team twice in that stretch one being at home. The only time we came close to getting screwed was 2010 when we made it to the SECTCG and lost to Kentucky on the John Wall lane violation. I thought that got us in. Every other year you mentioned we either were undeserving, shite the bed, or both. If we win both games this week WE ARE IN. Period. End of story. Lose to Vandy and it gets dicey. Lose to SCar and start buying NIT tickets.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Naw we’re not getting that high. Win both & we’re a solid 10 maybe 9 seed. Win a couple in the SEC Tourney on top of that then we maybe could make it to 8 line.

I'd prefer to stay a 10 seed. There's not much difference between 7,8,9, and 10 seeds but there's a ton of difference between 1 and 2 seeds. You want to avoid a 1 seed as long as possible in the Tournament.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

I'd prefer to stay a 10 seed. There's not much difference between 7,8,9, and 10 seeds but there's a ton of difference between 1 and 2 seeds. You want to avoid a 1 seed as long as possible in the Tournament.

I agree

[Commercecomet24]

I agree

Dude where you been?

[smootness]

I'd prefer to stay a 10 seed. There's not much difference between 7,8,9, and 10 seeds but there's a ton of difference between 1 and 2 seeds. You want to avoid a 1 seed as long as possible in the Tournament.

Interestingly, in the modern era, while they are less likely to win the first game, 11 seeds have made the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final 4 more often than 10, 9, and 8 seeds. 10s have also made each of those rounds more than 9s or 8s.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Dude where you been?

I’ve been around

[Commercecomet24]

I’ve been around

Haven't seen you on here in ages. Miss your posts.

[LC Dawg]

Interestingly, in the modern era, while they are less likely to win the first game, 11 seeds have made the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final 4 more often than 10, 9, and 8 seeds. 10s have also made each of those rounds more than 9s or 8s.

I'd love to be an 11 seed. As I said in another thread we've got to upset someone in the 1st round and no 6 seed wants to play us and we'll scare the hell out of any 3 seed.