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Thread: Updated Severe Weather Outlook. Slight Risk Wednesday / Significant Outbreak for Thur

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Updated Severe Weather Outlook. Slight Risk Wednesday / Significant Outbreak for Thur





    SPC has upgraded NW MS to a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday for a conditional low end event and maintaining a significant severe weather event possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. As I was expecting, they did retract the threat back slightly westward for Thursday as it looks like the timing of the storm has slowed slightly. By the time the storms reach the golden triangle area the system will be weakening as the best dynamics start to pull away from the region. However, parts of western and central MS are still fully under the gun and the SPC is saying an upgrade to a moderate risk is likely with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) in the black hatched area. I would not be surprised if most of any mod risk is in parts of AR and LA and possibly extending into the delta region. Just have to see how it plays out.

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    So how do we follow this storm in Central MS with the Brandon radar down?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HaggardDawg View Post
    So how do we follow this storm in Central MS with the Brandon radar down?
    They're expecting to have it back up and running. All of the components have been installed and they're just doing some final adjustments and functional tests. They had it up and running about 30 minutes last night.

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    You mean the Brandon radar that the brilliant engineers stuck a water tower up in front of…. Is that the radar you speak of, the one with a damn blind spot to the NNW?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentSteel16 View Post
    You mean the Brandon radar that the brilliant engineers stuck a water tower up in front of?. Is that the radar you speak of, the one with a damn blind spot to the NNW?
    That would be the one. It it's actually to the SW. Mayor said it would have little effect and just a few months later the rotation of a tornado literally followed the exact path of that radar hole.

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    Yeah I knew it was somewhere towards Yazoo. I think there was a civil suit or something against City of Brandon if I remember right.

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    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Just curious, Vegas, but how do you Weather Cats define "severe" weather???

    Flooding, Hail, High Winds, Naders, Hurricanes, Raining Frogs, a combination thereof?

    Thanks for the effort you put into this....
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TUSK View Post
    Just curious, Vegas, but how do you Weather Cats define "severe" weather???

    Flooding, Hail, High Winds, Naders, Hurricanes, Raining Frogs, a combination thereof?

    Thanks for the effort you put into this....
    We use the NWS definition of a severe thunderstorm which is any storm producing at least one of the below:
    Winds of 58mph or greater
    Hail 1" in diameter or larger
    Tornado

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Bump.
    This is the new thread.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Trends are becoming interesting. Storm system is slowing down which looks to put the worst over AR late Thursday afternoon. I had said earlier that it looked like east MS and west AL would miss the highest impacts. Well, maybe not. If it continues to slow down that would put it not hitting that area until Friday morning which could POSSIBLY give it time to reenergize. The low level jet is also starting to shift just slightly and no longer be perfectly parallel to the cold front. Additionally, a strong capping inversion looks to be in place ahead of the front. These factors will limit the amount of discrete supercells that form and reduce the tornado risk over MS. If I were or pick a spot in the state with the best shot at tornadoes I would say the central and northern delta.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Bump

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Sitting at NOLA airport headed back to Nashville. How bad is the severe risk for the Nashville area??
    I haven't found a good source up there like you guys. That's why I always ask here.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    Sitting at NOLA airport headed back to Nashville. How bad is the severe risk for the Nashville area??
    I haven't found a good source up there like you guys. That's why I always ask here.
    Nashville is right at the edge of the slight risk for tonight. Overall, I doubt it gets too bad there.

    North MS is starting to trend a little higher for severe weather tonight, though. Especially the NW delta. The HRRR is showing a capping inversion just above the surface over east MS and that will help suppress storms here for night, but if any storms can break the cap they could easily go severe.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Nashville is right at the edge of the slight risk for tonight. Overall, I doubt it gets too bad there.

    North MS is starting to trend a little higher for severe weather tonight, though. Especially the NW delta. The HRRR is showing a capping inversion just above the surface over east MS and that will help suppress storms here for night, but if any storms can break the cap they could easily go severe.
    Thanks man!!

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    Senior Member yjnkdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentSteel16 View Post
    You mean the Brandon radar that the brilliant engineers stuck a water tower up in front of…. Is that the radar you speak of, the one with a damn blind spot to the NNW?
    Those brilliant engineers did so because politics and stupidity usually win out. The City of Brandon was informed by knowledgeable people that it was going to be an issue and affect the Jax KDGX Radar beam to the SW of the radar site.
    Last edited by yjnkdawg; 03-01-2023 at 05:23 PM.

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    Got to head to Jackson early am tomorrow from Stark and then headed back to stark probably around midafternoon. What does that look like for me?

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Nashville is right at the edge of the slight risk for tonight. Overall, I doubt it gets too bad there.

    North MS is starting to trend a little higher for severe weather tonight, though. Especially the NW delta. The HRRR is showing a capping inversion just above the surface over east MS and that will help suppress storms here for night, but if any storms can break the cap they could easily go severe.

    What?s the timing look like for North Ms, Southaven area?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgunn View Post
    What?s the timing look like for North Ms, Southaven area?
    Today? Right now.

    Tomorrow? Probably midnight or later.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Munson View Post
    Got to head to Jackson early am tomorrow from Stark and then headed back to stark probably around midafternoon. What does that look like for me?
    You should be fine. Timing for MS tomorrow looks well after dark.

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    Thanks, bud!

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