Bubble Watch

[StarkVegasSteve]

I'd love to be an 11 seed. As I said in another thread we've got to upset someone in the 1st round and no 6 seed wants to play us and we'll scare the hell out of any 3 seed.

The only reason I don't want to be an 11, which I'd honestly prefer, is because I feel like if we're an 11 we're gonna be in the play in. If we can be an 11 and miss the play in then give that to me all day. Not much difference in playing a 6 or 7, but it would be a sizable difference in playing a Texas or an Arizona over maybe getting Marquette once again or the most beatable Gonzaga team in the last 10 years. As I said earlier, avoid the 1 as long as possible.

Our luck we'll get hot at the right for the second time this century and end up as an 8 or 9 and have to play Houston in the second round.

[RLM38654]

After West Virginia win at Iowa State, MSU moves back to the last 4 in. Big win or not still think State should ahead of West Virginia and also Nevada who lost to slaw az Wyoming. State is going to have win tonight and cover the spread to remain #39. The NET is based off of that. Other bubble teams, tonight.

Tonight KenPom Projections
Clemson @ Virginia L, 69-63 64 30% Away
Texas Tech @ Kansas L, 78-68 70 17% Away
San Diego State @ Boise W, 67-66 67 55% Home

[Ezsoil]

I'd say Auburn is the team that should be worried ....I can see them losing out and being part of a SECT seeding logjam at 9-9

[msstate7]

[StarkVegasSteve]

Memphis is the one team I do not get how they are safe. They have two Q1 wins and four Q2. They even have TWO Q3 losses. How the hell do the metrics favor them?

[ZedFedder]

We need Auburn to lose out. Which, I think they will, but still.

[sleepy dawg]

Memphis is the one team I do not get how they are safe. They have two Q1 wins and four Q2. They even have TWO Q3 losses. How the hell do the metrics favor them?

They're 2-3 in Q1 and 7-3 in Q2. They have 1 Q3 loss and 0 Q4 losses. Perhaps you're looking at RPI or something other than the latest NET?

[StarkVegasSteve]

They're 2-3 in Q1 and 7-3 in Q2. They have 1 Q3 loss and 0 Q4 losses. Perhaps you're looking at RPI or something other than the latest NET?

You are right. I was looking at it on my phone and it was formatted differently.

[R2Dawg]

I think Aub could be in trouble as many as they have lost down the stretch. Their losing record is bad last 10 games.

[Captain Falcon]

May be wrong on this, but I kinda think Auburn beats Tennessee on Saturday (especially with Zeigler out for the season now) and all the talk of them missing the tourney ends up being for naught.

Having said that, assuming they lose at Bama tonight, Lunardi and others will likely drop them behind us and very much in the Last In/First Out group of teams.

[parabrave]

OK I'm getting confused. Last 4 in mean you are in the bracket, 62-64?? Last 4 byes mean 65-68?? Which is better?? Does Lunardi also draw up the US Congressional Budget??

[PGHBulldogBG]

May be wrong on this, but I kinda think Auburn beats Tennessee on Saturday (especially with Zeigler out for the season now) and all the talk of them missing the tourney ends up being for naught.

Having said that, assuming they lose at Bama tonight, Lunardi and others will likely drop them behind us and very much in the Last In/First Out group of teams.

Auburn has a higher NET which won’t really fall losing to Bama or Tenn. Even if we beat Vandy, both of us will be 9-9 in conference and they won the head to head. I doubt they take State over Auburn, but I think as long as we win Saturday both State and Auburn will be in as a 10 seed barring some conference tournament upsets. Best way to secure our bid is to win Saturday and then 1 in SEC tournament. If we do that, it gives us 22 wins and I do not see how we get left out with that

[PMDawg]

It's been said a lot, but the SEC needing to get 8 for us to make it, along with UNC lurking on the wrong side of the bubble, is very scary.

[StarkVegasSteve]

OK I'm getting confused. Last 4 in mean you are in the bracket, 62-64?? Last 4 byes mean 65-68?? Which is better?? Does Lunardi also draw up the US Congressional Budget??

Last 4 in means you play in the Tues/Wed play in games. Last 4 byes means you don't have to play in that and you're in the field.

[RLM38654]

This what I think the bubble teams have to do to get in to the tournament, Also this is what I think the committee is thinking, not me. Also assuming there will be two or three bid stealers.

#39 Memphis- Memphis wins tomorrow against SMU and beats Houston on Sunday, they are in regardless of what they do in the AAC tournament.

#40 Boise State- Win at Utah State and win two in the MWC tourney, they are probably in. .

#41 West Virginia - Beat Kansas State on Saturday they are in regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament

#42 Auburn - Beat Alabama or Tennessee they are in

#43 Mississippi State- Beat Vandy and win a game in the SEC Tournament but my gut is telling me two games. Win two games and State is a lock, one game I think State is probably in but hanging in the balance.

#44 Nevada- Probably has to win the MWC Tournament or beat UNLV this weekend and get to the Championship game, but don't think that will be enough

#45 Arizona State- Beat UCLA and USC on the the road and win a game, maybe two in the PAC-12 Tourney

#46 Wisconsin- Has to beat Purdue and Minnesota and win two games in the Big 10 tourney

#69 North Carolina- Beat Duke and win two games in the ACC tourney

#70 Oklahoma State- Beat Texas Tech and get to the Big 12 Championship game

#71 Michigan- Beat Illinois and IU on the road and probably two games in Big 10 Tourney

#72 Utah State- Win MWC Tournament

#73 Clemson- Beat Notre Dame and get to the ACC Championship game

#74 Charleston - Win CAA Tournament

#75 Penn State- Beat Northwestern and Maryland and probably two or three games in the Big 10 tournament

#76 Texas Tech- Win the Big 12 Tournament

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Win Saturday & we’re in

[Ari Gold]

Win Saturday & we’re in

Agree... unless a few crazy things happen in conference tourneys

[RLM38654]

Michigan, Wiskey, ASU, USC and Rutgers all lost last night.