Tulu to the Portal

[KB21]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...-and-rest-time

Why is the myth that a running game can help a defense so prevalent? I suspect that a contributing factor is the conflation of pace effects (in which defenses allow fewer points if they take the field on fewer drives) with actual changes in defensive efficiency. If two teams possess the ball an equal number of times, there is nothing inherently valuable about making the other team possess the ball fewer times, because your own team will also possess the ball fewer times (unless, perhaps, an underdog is pursuing a high-variance strategy). In the end, barring defensive or special teams scores, the team with more points per drive will win, whether there are a lot of drives or few drives. But there is no evidence that time of possession helps a defense perform better when it is on the field.

[msstate7]

Probably worth noting that personnel matters. If you have Patrick Mahomes or Bryce young, sure throw heavy. If you have an avg qb, passing heavy probably isn't such a great idea

[StarkVegasSteve]

Probably worth noting that personnel matters. If you have Patrick Mahomes or Bryce young, sure throw heavy. If you have an avg qb, passing heavy probably isn't such a great idea

Yea that is a point I was trying to make in my post, probably could have worded it better. The reason pass heavy offenses are not always in the top 10 is that without an NFL talent at QB (Mahomes, Williams, Hurts, Stroud, etc) you will not succeed because you have to have that big arm to push the ball. It opens up everything underneath. Also does not hurt to have elite speed at WR.

[Quaoarsking]

In top 10 nationally in yds/play, only 3 (Ohio st, Washington, and usc) were pass heavy

What about over the last 10 years? Was 2022 typical?

What if you adjust for passes to the RBs and count those as runs (some of them essentially are)? Is "balance" best determined by a simple pass vs. run, or by dividing the field into sections and balancing where the the ball is put?

[msstate7]

What about over the last 10 years? Was 2022 typical?

What if you adjust for passes to the RBs and count those as runs (some of them essentially are)? Is "balance" best determined by a simple pass vs. run, or by dividing the field into sections and balancing where the the ball is put?

That sounds like a good project for you, Q. Let me and the board know

[MrCoachKlein]

What about over the last 10 years? Was 2022 typical?

What if you adjust for passes to the RBs and count those as runs (some of them essentially are)? Is "balance" best determined by a simple pass vs. run, or by dividing the field into sections and balancing where the the ball is put?

While we're at it, let's adjust for talent between teams. UGA could run it 100% of the time and probably not lose a game. Their OL is so good it doesn't matter

[msstate7]

While we're at it, let's adjust for talent between teams. UGA could run it 100% of the time and probably not lose a game. Their OL is so good it doesn't matter

So basically you're saying the scheme matters less than the talent? I agree with that

[MrCoachKlein]

So basically you're saying the scheme matters less than the talent? I agree with that

100%. I still believe that passing is ultimately more effective than running.

Like everything else in life there are caveats. If you throw 95% of the time like leach it starts to swing back to running being more effective. It's all about doing what the defense isn't looking for. In this day and age that usually means setting up a run game with your pass game.

I'm happy with the Barbary hire. I think he was the best available after briles rejected us. I love that hell run 50 times one game then throw 50 another. I'm a fan of taking what is given vs forcing a pass or run to establish your offense.

[Coach34]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

[MrCoachKlein]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

Where's pain prediction when you need him.

[msstate7]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

Georgia southern at 62% passing at 19th nationally in total offense is the closest. I think

[MrCoachKlein]

That 3rd and 1 30 yard pass to mark Andrews was a perfect example of passing being a more effective tool if you have the balls. Run it you likely get it and a couple yards. Throw it 1 on 1 they get 30 yards. Could've been dropped and go to 4th, but D gave them the pass look and they had the stones to take the risk.

ETA: the reward outweighs the risk most of the time when it comes to passing IMO

[Really Clark?]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

I don't see any. Even most pass first teams are less than 60%. Heck Texas Tech with Kittley was 52/48 pass to run.

[Really Clark?]

Georgia southern at 62% passing at 19th nationally in total offense is the closest. I think

They are not P5 though, that's what he was asking. I think Washington was the highest throwing percentage at 59% of Top 40 scoring teams of P5 teams.

[msstate7]

They are not P5 though, that's what he was asking. I think Washington was the highest throwing percentage at 59% of Top 40 scoring teams of P5 teams.

Reading comprehension isn't my strong point

[Really Clark?]

Reading comprehension isn't my strong point

Lol. I knew you had just mis-read it.

[Todd4State]

While we're at it, let's adjust for talent between teams. UGA could run it 100% of the time and probably not lose a game. Their OL is so good it doesn't matter

Even a school like Georgia I believe they were like 45% pass and 55% run and that's with a walk-on QB essentially. The significance there to me is if this was 1996 they would probably be more like 40% pass and 60% run or even 35/65.

The game and the thought process of coaches has been slowly shifting to where the only teams that are truly run heavy are the service academies and most teams are now pretty balanced. Other than the service academies the vast majority of the other "run heavy" teams are at like 39% pass and 61% run.

In the NFL the run pass ratio is 55% and 45% run and this year there were only 6 teams that fell below 50% and four of those 6 were at 48% or better. I think as you see more NFL coaches come to the SEC and college you are going to continue to see a gradual shift towards passing. The best thing I liked about hiring Leach is he showed that we could pass the ball here. If nothing else.

[SPMT]

Y?all are picking the fly shit out of the pepper.

Short pass or run. Same thing.

Risk is the key factory, what can be executed best is the question. That?s dependent on team strength.

[bulldawg28]

100%. I still believe that passing is ultimately more effective than running.

Like everything else in life there are caveats. If you throw 95% of the time like leach it starts to swing back to running being more effective. It's all about doing what the defense isn't looking for. In this day and age that usually means setting up a run game with your pass game.

I'm happy with the Barbary hire. I think he was the best available after briles rejected us. I love that hell run 50 times one game then throw 50 another. I'm a fan of taking what is given vs forcing a pass or run to establish your offense.

I 1000% agree. Find what's working and keep doing it until they make you stop.

[Leroy Jenkins]

Why are these kids so thirsty for attention? Everything needs to be an announcement or some other production, just make a decision and keep moving. These football players need more drama and attention than a 16 year old girl.