2022 statistical post-mortem

[Prediction? Pain.]

Last year's post-Egg Bowl data dump seemed to be well received, so I figured I'd give it another go this year.

[TL;DR: After fielding one of the better offenses in the SEC in 2021, we took a step back and were average-to-subpar on that side of the ball. It was kind of the opposite for the defense. A good-but-not-great unit that benefited from our ball-control offense in 2021 took a solid step forward.]

Similar explanatory jibber jabber as last year:

The charts cover every year since Mullen arrived in 2009. The stuff on the left two-thirds of the chart reflects SEC-only games and are mostly big-picture stats. The "RZ TD %" and "20+ YDs" columns are for TD proficiency in the redzone and big plays by or against the offense or defense. The rest are self-explanatory.

The stuff on the right third of the chart is from the FEI advanced stat rankings, which you can find here. The "FEI Off." and "FEI Def." are the national, overall offensive and defensive, drive-by-drive efficiency ranks. They are opponent adjusted, they do not count games against FCS teams, and they do not include drives during garbage time.

The FEI ranks are calculated with many different raw efficiency-based inputs. I've included two of those raw, unadjusted inputs in the chart as well just to give you a flavor for the thing. The first, which I've called "% Yards Gained," is the percentage of available yards that an offense gains per drive or that a defense yields per drive. The second, which I've called "TD %," is the percentage of an offense's or defense's drives that result in a touchdown. Again, those two categories are not adjusted for opponent quality but the overall "FEI Off." and "FEI Def." ranks are.

So first the offense, then the defense, and then a few random odds 'n ends:

• I wasn't expecting this after the offense's 2021 results, but 2022's team would've fit in well with Mullen ca. 2010 and 2013. Strong defense, inconsistent offense. (Though even then, the 2022 offense still scored TDs on a drive-by-drive basis as or more efficiently than most of Mullen's offense.)
• In 2021, State was ranked 1st in the SEC in time of possession and as a result, our defense faced the fewest plays by opposing offenses in the SEC. This year that changed completely. We were 10th in the SEC in time of possession and our defense was 9th in the number of plays it faced. Keep that in mind when thinking about some of the defense's "traditional" stats in 2021 and 2022. Yeah, we dropped from 3rd to 7th in both total defense and 20+ yard plays allowed, but the 2021 ranks were deceiving because they were propped up in part by our offense keeping other offenses off the field. (Another reason why advanced stats are more helpful sometimes.)
• In SEC games in 2021, we went for it on 4th down nine times and converted seven times. That rate was good for 1st in the SEC. This year, we went for it on 4th down a whopping 24 times, the most by State in the post-Croom era and more than any SEC team this year other than Florida. (Mullen had several seasons with 18 attempts in SEC games, and Leach had 18 attempts in 2020, too, though that was in ten games instead of the typical eight.) We converted about 46% of the attempts, which was the 9th ranked conversion % in the SEC.
• Our offensive line's performance was pretty similar to last year. Similarly low rates of allowing sacks and TFLs -- 29th nationally in allowing sacks in 2021, 35th in 2022; 38th nationally in allowing 0-or-less-yard runs in 2021, 28th this year. The only categories that were notably different were "power success rate" (success rate of RB runs on 3rd and 4th downs with 2 or fewer yards to go) and "opportunity rate" (the % of runs that go for 4+ yards, assuming 4+ yards are available). We were No. 10 nationally in power success rate last year, but dropped to No. 79 this year. And we were No. 31 nationally in opportunity rate last year, but way down at No. 102 nationally this year. Weird, especially given that the running game seemed better overall this year.
• I guess this goes without saying, but Will didn't play as well this year as he did last year. In 2021, he was 1st in the SEC in completion %, 6th in QB rating, and 9th in yards per attempt. In 2022, all of those dropped -- 8th in completion %, 11th in QB rating, and 12th in yards per attempt. The contrast is even more stark if you look only at games against ranked teams. His ranks in 2021 in those games were the same as or better than they were overall -- 1st comp %, 6th QB rating, 7th yards per attempt. This year in those games, he was bad -- 10th in comp %, 13th in QB rating, and 13th in yards per attempt. Those numbers are abysmal not just for a Leach QB but for an MSU QB in general. We're talking Russell/Relf 2011 bad. Not meaning to dump on the dude. He's a gamer who loves football and MSU. And I know he's capable of better based on how he played in 2021. But man, I hope he can return to form next season.
• This is probably neither here nor there, but as inconsistent and frustrating as the offense could be at times this season, the annual post-Alabama uproar needs to be taken down a notch. I posted this on another board -- if I posted it here, too, I apologize -- but it bears repeating: our offense against Alabama has been putrid going on 15 years regardless of coach and scheme. Since our last win against them in 2007, we've had one-and-a-half games against Bama where our offense was competitive -- the 2017 game and the second half of the 2014 game. Here are our point totals for every game we've had against them since 2008 other than '14 and '17: 7, 3, 10, 7, 7, 7, 6, 3, 0, 7, 0, 9, 6. And here are our total offensive yards from those same games: 167, 213, 299, 131 (!), 256, 197, 393, 274, 169, 270, 200, 299, 293. That's horrific across the board from Croom to Mullen to Moorhead to Leach. So the next time we get pants'd by Bama, can we please refrain from all the soap-box speeches about how bad Leach's offense sucks? The voodoo needs to and will end at some point. But until that happens, I'm taking the offensive numbers vs. Bama with a grain of salt.
• Our short yardage run defense was freaking stout this year. No. 7 nationally in "power success rate" defense. Only 50% of opponents' runs on 3rd or 4th and short were successful. No. 21 nationally in rate of TFLs or zero-yard runs, too. The D-line improved across the board, actually. Still kind of pedestrian sack numbers (No. 60 nationally in sack rate) but mostly solid or better otherwise.
• So our red zone offense was awesome this year. The bummer was that we just didn't get down there enough. We were freaking 13th in the conference in red zone attempts in SEC games. Another category that was a strong suit last year -- we were 4th in the SEC in 2021 in red zone attempts. Bummer.

And finally, special teams! Yes, the field goal unit had, uh, issues again. But dude, the return and coverage units improved a ton. Behold the advanced stat rankings, whose data you can decipher here if you'd like:

[lastmajordog]

2018 stats still make me mad as H and sick at same time. What could/should have been.

[CaptainObvious]

2018 stats still make me mad as H and sick at same time. What could/should have been.

I was about to say the same thing. Cohen could have hired the Army Coach running the Wingbone and won 10 games with that defense. Moorhead can kick rocks!!!!

[TrapGame]

I was about to say the same thing. Cohen could have hired the Army Coach running the Wingbone and won 10 games with that defense. Moorhead can kick rocks!!!!

Run the ball every other down with Fitz working short passes w/ some QB keepers sprinkled in and we win 10 games easy. Moorhead would have been up for COTY.

[Coach34]

One thing that sticks out to me is that even with adding Georgia to the schedule and losing an NFL LT- we had 5 fewer sacks in conference this season. Yet were still worse offensively.

We also added a half yard to our per carry avg running the football.

[PMDawg]

2018 stats still make me mad as H and sick at same time. What could/should have been.

LOL - That was what stuck out to me too.

[lastmajordog]

I don’t know who I want to kick more...CDM or CJM.........crap what a HORRIBLE WASTE.........goood grief what kind of contract could Dan have gotten if he had coached that team? .......it just make me sick.I feel sure CDM would have folded against Bama as was his history but everyone else even with a 80% Fitz and everyone else is beatable even with his game choke organ.

[MrCoachKlein]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Prediction? Pain. again.