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Thread: Significant severe weather outbreak expected Tuesday night

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Significant severe weather outbreak expected Tuesday night

    I first mentioned this a few days ago and things are starting to come together for what looks like a significant fall season severe weather event. This includes an increasing likelihood of a tornado outbreak with the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes. Currently, northwest MS looks to be the most likely part of the state to be affected and the SPC has placed that area under an enhanced hatched risk area. They also mentioned a possible to probable upgrade to a moderate risk as we get closer to the event. Have multiple ways to get warnings Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. I may or may not be chasing. My truck is in the shop and I'm meeting resistance from the wife on using her car. Time will tell.


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    Hey I understand that you can get Timmers Dominator IV real cheap!!

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Thanks again for the heads up! Your info is invaluable!

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.
    That sucks!

    Will this move into the Nashville area?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    That sucks!

    Will this move into the Nashville area?
    It will but it should be much weaker by then.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    It will but it should be much weaker by then.
    Thanks man.

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    This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.


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    Senior Member msu15's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArrowDawg View Post
    This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.

    Wow good to see you're still around Arrow.
    "We will have no problem in handling Kentucky."-Turfdawg67. MSU suffered a 27-17 defeat in 2022 with 225 yards in total offense.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    SPC and local NWS offices now saying tornado outbreak. Some may be violent and long tracked. In the mod risk area straight line winds to 80 mph will also be possible. This is shaping up to be a dangerous storm system.

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    Senior Member SaintDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    SPC and local NWS offices now saying tornado outbreak. Some may be violent and long tracked. In the mod risk area straight line winds to 80 mph will also be possible. This is shaping up to be a dangerous storm system.
    I can't recall the last time you used the words "tornado outbreak". We all know that isnt a term you like to throw around willy-nilly. Time to batten down the hatches and say a few prayers then. Thanks SVD.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.
    Can't they just delay the upgrade a couple of days?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    Can't they just delay the upgrade a couple of days?
    They have.

    And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.

    There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    They have.

    And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.

    There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.
    How's it looking for us down here in Jones County, SVD? Appreciate all your info!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ArrowDawg View Post
    This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.

    I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow

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    Senior Member THE Bruce Dickinson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    They have.

    And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.

    There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.
    What time frame are we looking at for this ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desoto1967 View Post
    I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow
    Yes, that would be the wise thing to do.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Just going to post this from Jackson NWS word for word.

    Tuesday-Tuesday night: At the start, significant upper level jet &
    strong cold frontal system will be taking shape over the central
    Plains. Sfc cyclone of 995mb will be deepening over the central
    Plains, quickly ejecting E-NE through the mid-MS Valley by midday
    Tues & gaining latitude into the N Great Lakes by Tues evening to
    Tues night. Sfc frontal system will be diving SE towards the area by
    Tues aftn in the ArkLaTex through the Ozarks & Mid-MS Valley by Tues
    evening & sweeping through the area by Wed morning. Strong synoptic
    jet of 75-85kts @ 500mb & +125kts @ 300mb downstream jet streak
    intensifying into the central Plains Tues in advance of mean trough
    ejecting out of the Pacific NW with favorable jet
    placement/diffluence in the area. Subtropical ridge will deepen over
    the W Carribean, keeping the bulk of the trough/forcing & height
    falls well off to the NW. However, significant WAA & moisture
    advection will bring boundary layer moisture with dewpoints climbing
    into the upper 60s-low 70s across the region. With anomalous warmth
    & dewpoints, combination of moderate to significant destabilization
    & anomalous mean bulk shear aloft will favor significant severe
    weather event. This will lead to combination of significant
    kinematics & thermo profiles, some values not seen per SPC sounding
    climatology (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) & long clockwise
    curved hodographs with +300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH & mean layer
    bulk shear around 30-45kts in the 0-1km/0-3km & 50-60kts in the 0-
    6km layer. This will continue to support all modes of significant
    severe weather, including tornadoes, some strong & long track
    tornadoes, damaging winds up to 80mph & large hail of golf ball size
    or potentially larger. Highest threat looks to be along & NW of the
    Natchez Trace corridor. Storm mode looks to be a combination of mid-
    morning warm advection showers growing upscale & developing into
    supercell mode into the afternoon hours. There are some challenges
    on initial development timing & any southern storms developing
    across the region, which could limit some inflow of most efficient
    moisture. However, this area in SE MS could have better mid-level
    capping & 700mb heights which could suppress some convection into
    the Pine Belt. After collaboration with SPC earlier today, the
    "Moderate" & "Enhanced" risk areas were expanded to the E & SE into
    the Hwy 82/Hwy 45 corridors & along I-20 corridors, while the Slight
    was also expanded to include the most S & E extreme portions of the
    region. Timing for the most significant severe weather looks to be
    in the 6PM to midnight timeframe, with some lingering after midnight
    through 4AM. The earlier development is tricky & some severe &
    tornado potential are possible as early as mid-morning to early aftn
    hours. Kept timing as is for now but confidence beginning of the
    warm sector supercells is lower while increased confidence of
    decreasing severe potential in the Delta around 8PM-11PM in the NW
    Delta, the I-55 corridor around midnight or 1AM & most potential
    moved out by just before daybreak in E-SE MS.

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    Senior Member SaintDawg's Avatar
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    I sense some foreboding in SVD's post from NWS. Bad news.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desoto1967 View Post
    I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow
    Absolutely

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