Hurricane Ian update from ground zero..........

[99jc]

total destruction is the only way to describe it. still finding and recovering bodies. this part of Florida will never be the same. Food and water are scarce, and it looks like a third world country. PEACE TO ALL AND HAIL STATE!

[DownwardDawg]

I hate it for all those people. God help them.
Thanks for the update. Stay safe.

[Cooterpoot]

I'm not going to lie. I've teared up a few times about it all. A lot of my favorite places are gone.

[Commercecomet24]

I hate hurricanes! So sad!Praying for all those affected and our church will be headed over there to help out soon. Just so sad.

[Westdawg]

Same here with our church disaster relief crew. Big thing I was told that was holding up the OK to head that way was 1- power still in lots of lines that are downed. 2 - no clear means of travel/transport to get close to the areas hit hardest 3 - still working to locate/clear the dead.
Video from ppl I know down there is unbelievable.

[State82]

Just awful. Awful and tragic. I can't even imagine.

[Commercecomet24]

Same here with our church disaster relief crew. Big thing I was told that was holding up the OK to head that way was 1- power still in lots of lines that are downed. 2 - no clear means of travel/transport to get close to the areas hit hardest 3 - still working to locate/clear the dead.
Video from ppl I know down there is unbelievable.

Yeah same for us on having to wait. Just no way to get around down there right now and don't want to clog everything up for those down there trying to get things cleared and cleaned up. Been on so many of these disaster relief deals and it's always heart wrenching!

[dawgday166]

Got a friend who retired down there to one of the islands off the west coast of FL. Took a direct hit from Ian. They evacuated but have nothing left now. Bridge to island is out and due to that, estimates are it will be months before power is restored. It's really sad what all the folks in FL are going thru right now. My understanding it was similar to Katrina.

[BrunswickDawg]

Yeah same for us on having to wait. Just no way to get around down there right now and don't want to clog everything up for those down there trying to get things cleared and cleaned up. Been on so many of these disaster relief deals and it's always heart wrenching!

It's really hard to imagine the scale of this one. When Matthew hit here in '16, most of the damage was tree related and maybe a dozen house flooded out that had to be demolished. The amount of downed trees was pretty significant, and easily took 6 months of clean up county-wide. Power was out on the mainland for 4 days, and on the islands about a week (which kept the water system offline, and people pissed). That was a Cat 1 that stayed off shore here. The destructive scale of a direct hit from a Cat 4/5 is dang near nuclear in terms of damage. I really feel for the people there.

As a land planner, it will be interesting to see what comes next. I think this one may prompt some major changes in what FEMA and insurers will allow to be rebuilt. They have already been pushing that way over the past few years, I won't be surprised if there is a move to not allow rebuilding on Sanibel Island, or not rebuild the causeway (which will take years to rebuild anyway).

[Liverpooldawg]

I'm not going to lie. I've teared up a few times about it all. A lot of my favorite places are gone.

I haven't been down there since 2009 but same here. I have a lot of happy memories from that area, especially Sanibel and Captiva. I know from satellite photos that I've seen that two of the three restaurants we loved the most are totally gone. I suspect the other is badly damaged even though it is still standing. The house that's in the family is still there, but nobody has been able to get in and see how bad the damage is. The house is on stilts and is on the extreme West End so there is at least a little hope for it. The surge wasn't as bad up there as it was on the East End.

[Liverpooldawg]

It's really hard to imagine the scale of this one. When Matthew hit here in '16, most of the damage was tree related and maybe a dozen house flooded out that had to be demolished. The amount of downed trees was pretty significant, and easily took 6 months of clean up county-wide. Power was out on the mainland for 4 days, and on the islands about a week (which kept the water system offline, and people pissed). That was a Cat 1 that stayed off shore here. The destructive scale of a direct hit from a Cat 4/5 is dang near nuclear in terms of damage. I really feel for the people there.

As a land planner, it will be interesting to see what comes next. I think this one may prompt some major changes in what FEMA and insurers will allow to be rebuilt. They have already been pushing that way over the past few years, I won't be surprised if there is a move to not allow rebuilding on Sanibel Island, or not rebuild the causeway (which will take years to rebuild anyway).

There is a lot of money on Sanibel and Captiva. They will be rebuilt. The Causeway might be different. A lot of the old line folks there never liked it.

[Johnson85]

It's really hard to imagine the scale of this one. When Matthew hit here in '16, most of the damage was tree related and maybe a dozen house flooded out that had to be demolished. The amount of downed trees was pretty significant, and easily took 6 months of clean up county-wide. Power was out on the mainland for 4 days, and on the islands about a week (which kept the water system offline, and people pissed). That was a Cat 1 that stayed off shore here. The destructive scale of a direct hit from a Cat 4/5 is dang near nuclear in terms of damage. I really feel for the people there.

As a land planner, it will be interesting to see what comes next. I think this one may prompt some major changes in what FEMA and insurers will allow to be rebuilt. They have already been pushing that way over the past few years, I won't be surprised if there is a move to not allow rebuilding on Sanibel Island, or not rebuild the causeway (which will take years to rebuild anyway).

I suspect you will see a new FIRM map sometime in the next 24 months that raises the BFE enough to make building a lot more expensive and less desirable. Of course that land is a lot more valuable, so it may still more or less get rebuilt in the next ten years whereas you still have places 17 years after Katrina that haven't recovered.

Going to be interesting to see how BFE is changed down there. As far as I can tell in Mississippi, BFE outside of velocity zones was set at around 1 to 3 feet below where Katrina's high water mark was in the area, stuff in velocity zones seems to be maybe a foot or two higher than Katrina's high water mark? Except for Hancock County it seems like the BFE south of I-10 are all set to never flood again.

[Johnson85]

There is a lot of money on Sanibel and Captiva. They will be rebuilt. The Causeway might be different. A lot of the old line folks there never liked it.

You really have to have a lot of money if you'd rather have to ferry out over a 2.5 mile sound rather than have a bridge that allows the riff raff to drive over too.

[Liverpooldawg]

You really have to have a lot of money if you'd rather have to ferry out over a 2.5 mile sound rather than have a bridge that allows the riff raff to drive over too.

That was exactly why they didn't like it.

[BrunswickDawg]

I suspect you will see a new FIRM map sometime in the next 24 months that raises the BFE enough to make building a lot more expensive and less desirable. Of course that land is a lot more valuable, so it may still more or less get rebuilt in the next ten years whereas you still have places 17 years after Katrina that haven't recovered.

Going to be interesting to see how BFE is changed down there. As far as I can tell in Mississippi, BFE outside of velocity zones was set at around 1 to 3 feet below where Katrina's high water mark was in the area, stuff in velocity zones seems to be maybe a foot or two higher than Katrina's high water mark? Except for Hancock County it seems like the BFE south of I-10 are all set to never flood again.

Out of interest, I googled their FIRM maps. Lee County has new maps taking effect in November. I didn't dig to see how it changed the BFE.

[Johnson85]

Out of interest, I googled their FIRM maps. Lee County has new maps taking effect in November. I didn't dig to see how it changed the BFE.

Just browsing around on the FIRM map viewer, it looks like Sanibel FIRM maps were mostly (all?) from 2008. Doesn't look ridiculous. Mostly 12 to 14 outside of velocity zones. Not sure what methodology those 2008 FIRM maps used. I guess the post Katrina methods? But would have guessed they would have ended up more 15-18 BFE if so.

[parabrave]

After Katrina in Gulfport we raised the BEF to 20+1. If the damage to the structure was more than 50% then the structure had to meet the new elevations. We did alot of fancy number crunching to keep the structure assessments below 50. When the Yacht Club was getting their CO FEMA saw the elevator and all hell broke loose when the FEMA rep saying that it had to be removed, even though another FEMA guy had approved the plans.

[Johnson85]

After Katrina in Gulfport we raised the BEF to 20+1. If the damage to the structure was more than 50% then the structure had to meet the new elevations. We did alot of fancy number crunching to keep the structure assessments below 50. When the Yacht Club was getting their CO FEMA saw the elevator and all hell broke loose when the FEMA rep saying that it had to be removed, even though another FEMA guy had approved the plans.

You mean the city started requiring BFE+1 for a permit? (The city would generally not set a BFE, FEMA would). Did the City do that before the new maps came out, and then the new maps raised them even higher? Or did the city adopt a BFE+1 requirement (I assume for breaks on NFIP rates?) after the new maps came out?

[parabrave]

Mayor and City Council approved the new elevations on FEMA recommendations. The new maps came out much later. INOW raise the BFE or else/ After the Yacht Club FEMA reviewed the Permits and made over 250 approved structures meet the new standards of they would not let Gulfport participate in the NFIP. Also after watching some of the houses catch on fire on the Island we had the same thing after Katrina. Seemed some homeowners didn't have flood insurance.

[Liverpooldawg]

I haven't been down there since 2009 but same here. I have a lot of happy memories from that area, especially Sanibel and Captiva. I know from satellite photos that I've seen that two of the three restaurants we loved the most are totally gone. I suspect the other is badly damaged even though it is still standing. The house that's in the family is still there, but nobody has been able to get in and see how bad the damage is. The house is on stilts and is on the extreme West End so there is at least a little hope for it. The surge wasn't as bad up there as it was on the East End.

The family member that owns the house made it in today. No interior damage, some exterior damage. The new metal roof was peeled off but the old shingles underneath kept it dry. He was, very fortunate. Again this is on the extreme West End. There was supposedly only a 4 foot surge there.