Hey SVD and weatherdawgs

[parabrave]

Hey guys what do y'all make of this low that gfs shows turning into a pretty significant hurricane and trucking into the gulf the first part of October. I know it's early but just for discussion purposes and to start a thread other than we suck at football lol!

Well it's invest 98 now/ Some models have it going up somewhere along the western shore of Fla others across Yucatan.

[Commercecomet24]

Well it's invest 98 now/ Some models have it going up somewhere along the western shore of Fla others across Yucatan.

Yeah I been watching it and the vary diverse paths that are predicted and I figure those will change a gazillion times in the next week, lol. Seems like they all pretty much agree though that it may be a significant hurricane. I pray that it fizzles(don't think so) and that no one is harmed by it.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the latest on Invest 98L that's soon to be Hermine. The spaghetti models show a turn towards the north towards the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico. This has a potential to be a significant storm with some models taking it up to a category 3. Final intensity and track are still to be determined but anywhere along the northern or eastern Gulf.

Point of note...Social media is about to erupt with fear porn posts of a category 5. While a category 4 or 5 is always possible, there is currently no credible data to indicate that it will. Ignore those sites. Don't give them the clicks which is all they crave. They give less than two shits if they scare people to death.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks man! Keep us posted!

[PMDawg]

It's going to be a tropical cyclone and it's coming into the GOM unless something crazy happens. Intensity likely depends on the path it takes into the GOM. If it crosses lots of land and/or the mountains of western Cuba on the way in, it will keep it weaker. Favorable conditions ahead, once it gets up past the imaginary line between Jamaica and eastern Honduras. Not sure how much shear it will have to fight, but from that imaginary line to the Yucatan channel it will be over extremely warm water. When it starts getting close to that imaginary line, it's time to pay more attention imo. Then, we'll be watching timing relative to cold fronts once it gets into the Gulf. Definitely a potential for a major storm in the Gulf, but lots to happen first. My experience is that the intensity models generally err to the low side with a lot of GOM storms. Definitely one to watch. Be concerned, but not scared. Those of us who live on the coast will need to start preparing over the weekend or early next week (gas, water, batteries, checking our emergency kits, testing our generators, etc.). Otherwise, watch and wait, as usual.

[parabrave]

Latest run has it pulling an IVAN. Coming up like a straight shot for the Coast then reaching the mouth of the River and catching the front and slamming into the Pensacola area. This is the lates GFS run, 10 day out, but the GFS has been consistent with a Gulf Shores to the PC area landfall.

[PMDawg]

Latest run has it pulling an IVAN. Coming up like a straight shot for the Coast then reaching the mouth of the River and catching the front and slamming into the Pensacola area. This is the lates GFS run, 10 day out, but the GFS has been consistent with a Gulf Shores to the PC area landfall.

Yeah, all you can watch for now is consistency. Even then, it's too early to mean much. At this stage, everyone on the GOM should start paying a little attention as we head into early next week.

[99jc]

Got put on alert to have bags packed. If/when deployed i have 6 hours to leave. All i can tell you now is they are getting ready to set up a command center in Mobile. Thats where it was when Ida hit last year. i may get sent to Puerto Rico or Bermuda before then. joy of joys. we spent 3 months on a cruise ship last time Puerto Rico was slammed. Electrical grid there is 3rd world terrible.

[starkvegasdawg]

Got put on alert to have bags packed. If/when deployed i have 6 hours to leave. All i can tell you now is they are getting ready to set up a command center in Mobile. Thats where it was when Ida hit last year. i may get sent to Puerto Rico or Bermuda before then. joy of joys. we spent 3 months on a cruise ship last time Puerto Rico was slammed. Electrical grid there is 3rd world terrible.

Do you deploy in the path of the storm or just out of the path and go in after the fact?

[99jc]

Do you deploy in the path of the storm or just out of the path and go in after the fact?

After the fact. usually within a day or two after a disaster. There is no way in hell I would do a Jim Cantore and ride out a hurricane. My most dangerous assignment was being sent to the Boader wall when the illegal crises were at its peak. There was a lot of human trafficking going on and some of the border patrol was getting paid by the cartel you had no idea whom to trust.

[DownwardDawg]

I think westerly flow this weekend is gonna push it into Florida. Hopefully at a quick pace so it can't intensify very much.

[99jc]

I think westerly flow this weekend is gonna push it into Florida. Hopefully at a quick pace so it can't intensify very much.

i hope r right but i think its headed for the panhandle myself and i think we will see a min cat 4

[PMDawg]

i hope r right but i think its headed for the panhandle myself and i think we will see a min cat 4

9 days out is still too long to have any confidence. BUT - gun to my head and I had to place a wager, I'd bet major hurricane to the FL peninsula myself. But that would just be a best guess based on very little data. Living on the GOM for 40+ years, I'm not new to this game. haha

[starkvegasdawg]

i hope r right but i think its headed for the panhandle myself and i think we will see a min cat 4

Latest runs are pushing it west so have to see if that continues. Strength is all over the place. Models are almost evenly split from depression to cat 5 so still much too uncertainty to even speculate there.

[Commercecomet24]

Latest runs are pushing it west so have to see if that continues. Strength is all over the place. Models are almost evenly split from depression to cat 5 so still much too uncertainty to even speculate there.

The models are all over the place. Euro shows Florida peninsula, gfs shows la/Tex. I know it's early but that's quite a spread there.

[basedog]

The models are all over the place. Euro shows Florida peninsula, gfs shows la/Tex. I know it's early but that's quite a spread there.

After 22 years of working storms, this isn't a surprise. The company I use to work for had a "paid" site that kept us and many utility companies across America informed. Lots of woulda, coulda maybe's and Iffy's! LOL

[Commercecomet24]

After 22 years of working storms, this isn't a surprise. The company I use to work for had a "paid" site that kept us and many utility companies across America informed. Lots of woulda, coulda maybe's and Iffy's! LOL

Yep. Hard for man to accurately predict what natures gonna do.

[parabrave]

Right now nothing but speculation. The Weather Channel won't even say anything past Sat. Heck there is not even a Low level low formed yet. The GFS has gone from PC to Lake Charles while the European has stayed with the west coast of Fla. Just keep it away from between New Orleans to Mobile/

[Commercecomet24]

Right now nothing but speculation. The Weather Channel won't even say anything past Sat. Heck there is not even a Low level low formed yet. The GFS has vone from PC to Lake Charled while the European has stayed with the west coast of Fla. Just keep it away from between New Orleans to Mobile/

I wouldn't wish a hurricane on anyone but i 100% agree with your last sentence.

[RocketDawg]

Right now nothing but speculation. The Weather Channel won't even say anything past Sat. Heck there is not even a Low level low formed yet. The GFS has gone from PC to Lake Charles while the European has stayed with the west coast of Fla. Just keep it away from between New Orleans to Mobile/

Isn't that area just a vacant landmass? Let's hope it stays away from the oil platforms as well.