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Thread: Hey SVD and weatherdawgs

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    Isn't that area just a vacant landmass? Let's hope it stays away from the oil platforms as well.
    And now the massive Wind farms to replace the oil platforms. Now thats what you call a recepie for disaster.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Latest GFS with a huge shift east in track with a landfall south of Tampa now. This is more in line with what the euro has been showing last few days and may...just may...mean there's finally starting to be some agreement among the models. I say that and when the euro comes in a couple hours later it'll probably show it hitting Houston. It should become a depression in the next 24-48 hours and then wait to see how strong it gets. Good news is if this track holds then that's less time over open water so less time to intensify.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Latest GFS with a huge shift east in track with a landfall south of Tampa now. This is more in line with what the euro has been showing last few days and may...just may...mean there's finally starting to be some agreement among the models. I say that and when the euro comes in a couple hours later it'll probably show it hitting Houston. It should become a depression in the next 24-48 hours and then wait to see how strong it gets. Good news is if this track holds then that's less time over open water so less time to intensify.
    I don't want anyone to get hurt, so I don't like to say where I "hope" it goes....but man, those mountains in western Cuba could help out big time if it tracks straight over them.

  4. #44
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    Hey 99 where are they sending you now>

  5. #45
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    It is now officially a depression. Everything else looks to still be holding firm. Next model runs will be coming out between noon and 2:00pm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Hey 99 where are they sending you now>
    I got another email this afternoon placing on alert ready standby. It said my unit will be 1st ones in on this rotation. They are setting up a command center either in Mobile or Jacksonville Fl. Probability is high landfall near Tampa-Saint Petersburg or in the Apalachicola area at this time.

  7. #47
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    It now officially has a name. Tropical Storm Ian has formed in the southern Caribbean. Expected to make landfall around Tampa on Wednesday as a major hurricane.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    It now officially has a name. Tropical Storm Ian has formed in the southern Caribbean. Expected to make landfall around Tampa on Wednesday as a major hurricane.
    My brother in law and his family live in Orlando. Praying all in the path of this thing make it through ok.

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    Hey SVD did they just shift the storm back to the Appalachacola area? GFS, HWFR and HMON are forecasting that now. But something to notice is that they are predicting the storm to fall apart offshore. The dry air that is over the area will curtail anymore intensifying the further the storm goes north.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Hey SVD did they just shift the storm back to the Appalachacola area? GFS, HWFR and HMON are forecasting that now. But something to notice is that they are predicting the storm to fall apart offshore. The dry air that is over the area will curtail anymore intensifying the further the storm goes north.
    Last I saw the official track is a landfall near Tampa as a cat 3.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Last I saw the official track is a landfall near Tampa as a cat 3.
    Anybody remember what the forecast track for Michael was several days out?

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    Biloxi?? It;s still early. The Track is going to shift until it turns north. One thing to watch is the Water Vapor loop over the coastal areas. It's been dry here for 3 weeks and forecasted to be dry the rest of the week. Dry air will kill a storm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Biloxi?? It;s still early. The Track is going to shift until it turns north. One thing to watch is the Water Vapor loop over the coastal areas. It's been dry here for 3 weeks and forecasted to be dry the rest of the week. Dry air will kill a storm.
    Yeah. I was watching The Weather Channel this morning and Dr. Postel, their hurricane expert, was emphasizing how they just don't know at present and that everyone along the northern Gulf needs to be cautious. Even as far west as east Texas.

  14. #54
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by State82 View Post
    Yeah. I was watching The Weather Channel this morning and Dr. Postel, their hurricane expert, was emphasizing how they just don't know at present and that everyone along the northern Gulf needs to be cautious. Even as far west as east Texas.
    There does look to be a western shift again in the tracks and an increase in intensity. Slightly more concerned than I was this morning.

  15. #55
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Expect to see Ian undergo rapid intensification starting tomorrow and possibly end up as a cat 4 in the eastern Gulf. However, it is looking like it might start to encounter shear and begin to weaken as it approaches land. Track is still not certain but forecasts have been trending west. There's a couple big upper air patterns waiting to see how they shake out. Another 24-36 hours should see that come into focus and the models get a much better grip on the track. Current forecast are still for a Florida strike at cat 1 or 2 intensity but the location could be the panhandle now instead of the peninsula.

  16. #56
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    Thanks SVD for your monitoring of the progress of the system.

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Thanks for keeping us posted. I sure hope this thing doesn't keep pushing west.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Thanks for keeping us posted. I sure hope this thing doesn't keep pushing west.
    These tracks usually will shift to extremes then settle once the storms are 2-3 days out. One thing to watch Wed and Thrus besides the Shearing is the Water Vapor loop. Dry air being introduced into a system will wreck it dam quick/ And the Front which is supposed to steer it is forcasted to be dry one.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    These tracks usually will shift to extremes then settle once the storms are 2-3 days out. One thing to watch Wed and Thrus besides the Shearing is the Water Vapor loop. Dry air being introduced into a system will wreck it dam quick/ And the Front which is supposed to steer it is forcasted to be dry one.
    Let's hope and pray it gets wrecked by dry air. I don't want anyone getting hit by this thing .

  20. #60
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    I'm watching closely. Supposed to fly from Nashville to Nola Tuesday to head offshore Wednesday.

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