Hey SVD and weatherdawgs

[Commercecomet24]

Hey guys what do y'all make of this low that gfs shows turning into a pretty significant hurricane and trucking into the gulf the first part of October. I know it's early but just for discussion purposes and to start a thread other than we suck at football lol!

[starkvegasdawg]

I'll be honest it has me concerned for the simple fact that all of the major models are picking up on it. I would say there is a decent chance it develops from its current state of a tropical wave. Now, assuming it develops, it is way too soon to be talking strength and track. Just 2-3 days ago Fiona was supposed to stay a tropical storm and now it is forecast to make a run at cat 4.

[parabrave]

Way too far out.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm obviously a novice at this weather stuff but it does fascinate me. I know it's early but one run I saw had it as low as 920 millibars and going in around Panama City and really staying pretty intact as far inland as Atlanta. I'm sure it's gonna change 50 gazillion times in the next couple of weeks but it looks like it could be significant. Hope it peters out!

[Commercecomet24]

Way too far out.

Oh yeah but this stuff fascinates me and I was tired of all the we suck at football threads lol

[CaptainObvious]

Oh yeah but this stuff fascinates me and I was tired of all the we suck at football threads lol

Well?. It IS that time of year. And State sucks at football.

[Commercecomet24]

Well?. It IS that time of year. And State sucks at football.

Ah we did for that game. We can't say we suck at football unless this season completely falls apart. And there have been enough threads covering the subject.

[DownwardDawg]

Ah we did for that game. We can't say we suck at football unless this season completely falls apart. And there have been enough threads covering the subject.

We sick at football. There. I said it. Lol
You know I'm messing with you.
I'm fascinated with weather systems too. Just haven't had time to pay attention to the tropics this year except when I'm offshore. Gotta keep an eye on winter systems more these days since the move.

[Commercecomet24]

We sick at football. There. I said it. Lol
You know I'm messing with you.
I'm fascinated with weather systems too. Just haven't had time to pay attention to the tropics this year except when I'm offshore. Gotta keep an eye on winter systems more these days since the move.

I hear ya brother!

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm obviously a novice at this weather stuff but it does fascinate me. I know it's early but one run I saw had it as low as 920 millibars and going in around Panama City and really staying pretty intact as far inland as Atlanta. I'm sure it's gonna change 50 gazillion times in the next couple of weeks but it looks like it could be significant. Hope it peters out!

I didn't see a run with 920mb but that would be a bitch of a storm. But just keep this mind. With the models picking up on this storm you're going to see clickbait social media sites losing their shit with all these over the top posts of a doomsday storm going to hit the gulf coast. Do yourself a favor and block those sites. They're nothing but fear porn trying to generate clicks. Right now the NHC is giving the wave in question a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression in five days. It's 9-11 days out from affecting any areas of the Gulf Coast. Anybody trying to say how strong it's going to be or where it's going to make landfall are full of shit more concerned with likes than public safety. They're assholes getting off on scaring people.

[basedog]

No more weather worries for me. I retired a few months ago. Did storm restoration as Logistics Manager for 22 years, saw way too much devastation. I hope and pray for all on coast lines as well as extreme bad cold wet weather.

[starkvegasdawg]

One more thing while I'm on my soapbox. I just went and looked at the 18z GFS. It has a 940mb hurricane hitting Florida. The 18z and 06z runs of the GFS are the less reliable of the two as they are not backed with any weather balloon data. The 12z and 00z are the more reliable of the runs of the GFS. If one of the two off runs has something over the top in it wait for the next balloon backed run to see what it says.

[Commercecomet24]

One more thing while I'm on my soapbox. I just went and looked at the 18z GFS. It has a 940mb hurricane hitting Florida. The 18z and 06z runs of the GFS are the less reliable of the two as they are not backed with any weather balloon data. The 12z and 00z are the more reliable of the runs of the GFS. If one of the two off runs has something over the top in it wait for the next balloon backed run to see what it says.

Appreciate the info. I only look at tropical tidbits and nhc for info and I like looking at the future runs on tropical tidbits. I normally look at gfs runs and like I said I'm just a novice who just finds all this very interesting. I depend on the info I get from y'all a lot and appreciate it!

[Commercecomet24]

I didn't see a run with 920mb but that would be a bitch of a storm. But just keep this mind. With the models picking up on this storm you're going to see clickbait social media sites losing their shit with all these over the top posts of a doomsday storm going to hit the gulf coast. Do yourself a favor and block those sites. They're nothing but fear porn trying to generate clicks. Right now the NHC is giving the wave in question a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression in five days. It's 9-11 days out from affecting any areas of the Gulf Coast. Anybody trying to say how strong it's going to be or where it's going to make landfall are full of shit more concerned with likes than public safety. They're assholes getting off on scaring people.

The 920mb run I saw earlier today on the gfs run and had it making landfall about the la/tex line.

[starkvegasdawg]

Appreciate the info. I only look at tropical tidbits and nhc for info and I like looking at the future runs on tropical tidbits. I normally look at gfs runs and like I said I'm just a novice who just finds all this very interesting. I depend on the info I get from y'all a lot and appreciate it!

I appreciate it. If you haven't, give our storm team's Facebook page a follow if you do the Facebook. And just to throw it out there we do have a Patreon page that has a monthly subscription fee where we give detailed content exclusive to it. The guy that posts content to it is very good and knowledgeable on severe weather and I'm starting to post some updates and articles on there more, too. I posted one last week on our hurricane season and have one set for release this Thursday, I believe, on our upcoming fall severe weather season. They're more number crunch high data articles and not fluff articles so may not appeal to everybody. But just in the off chance somebody is interested the link is Patreon.com/nmscas. We use all proceeds to help offset the cost of chasing and publishing content.

[Commercecomet24]

I appreciate it. If you haven't, give our storm team's Facebook page a follow if you do the Facebook. And just to throw it out there we do have a Patreon page that has a monthly subscription fee where we give detailed content exclusive to it. The guy that posts content to it is very good and knowledgeable on severe weather and I'm starting to post some updates and articles on there more, too. I posted one last week on our hurricane season and have one set for release this Thursday, I believe, on our upcoming fall severe weather season. They're more number crunch high data articles and not fluff articles so may not appeal to everybody. But just in the off chance somebody is interested the link is Patreon.com/nmscas. We use all proceeds to help offset the cost of chasing and publishing content.

Appreciate it man! I'll be glad to help y'all!

[starkvegasdawg]

Appreciate it man! I'll be glad to help y'all!

Very much appreciated.

[starkvegasdawg]

While no threat to the US mainland, Fiona is now right on the verge of being the first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic basin.

[Commercecomet24]

While no threat to the US mainland, Fiona is now right on the verge of being the first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic basin.

Crazy how quiet it's been. Sure hope it stays that way!

[starkvegasdawg]

Crazy how quiet it's been. Sure hope it stays that way!

It has been. This past August with no named storms was just the third time in the satellite era (1967-present) that has happened. The peak of the season is September 10, so we are now past that but September appears to not be as willing to go as quietly into the night.