A few football thoughts....

[Coach34]

He's laying it on too thick. He wants Leach to lose just like half the posters on this thread. It "proves" them right. Then we can go back and do it the way Jackie did and become dinosaurs again.

Too funny.

A) I never want us to lose. I just get joy out of sticking it to people when they are wrong. (Just as many do to me on that rare occasion I am)

B) I'm really interested to see what happens this season. This should be a team that competes for 10 wins. Veteran team with lots of experience. Tied for the most returning starters in the SEC. Defense should be very good. Pass rush should be better. Secondary should be better at safety for sure. However, the Airbone still has people wondering if it can get us there. Plus- what adjustments do defenses make against it this season?

C) Nobody has ever seen me call for the "days of Jackie". I havent had a team line-up in the I formation since 1995. I havent had a team take a snap from under Center (except for a 2pt conversion) since I got back into coaching in 2016. I do however think the Mullen/Freezus way of coaching offense suits Mississippi and its surrounding area of talent much better than the Airbone. Both of those guys got Mississippi programs into the Top 5 conversation- something Leach and the Airbone will almost assuredly never be. Mullen couldnt recruit consistently enough at WR and OL while Freezus needed to recruit better on D and a little more team discipline. But both hugely successful in the Magnolia state.

[TrapGame]

I'm pulling for Leach and a winning season. I see nothing wrong with my prediction being 7 wins, in saying this I still say we gotta run the ball and have success. Seems we just ran a few times the last couple of years to see if we surprised the defense. Hasn't worked. The main reason to run the ball some, is the Sec defenses are so fast and physical.

Just saying, I have a buddy who is a huge Leach fan, says he is the best thing since the slice of bread. Thinks like some on ED we are gonna win 9 games and maybe 10. I'm like how many times have we ever won 10 games and not many 9 games. I sure hope we do! Btw, he hates ED, big genespage supporter, says he gets his money worth paying $100, so be it for him, I just like free now days dealing with sport information!

Hailstate!

I hear ya Base.

Number #1: I ain't giving Gene Swindoll shit. I've got a buddy that stopped posting over here b/c of 34. He posts on Gene's now.

Now we ran the ball quite a bit for Leach's system last year. UK and NC State being just two examples. People need to do some research. Leach's 2008 Texas Tech team probably ran the ball more than any team he's ever had. They had Baron Batch as the starting RB. He would go on to play for the Steelers. Some of y'all can't see the trees for the forest. We moved the ball on some pretty good defenses last season.

For the record I'm saying 8-4 w/ a decent shot at 9-3.

[TrapGame]

Too funny.

A) I never want us to lose. I just get joy out of sticking it to people when they are wrong. (Just as many do to me on that rare occasion I am)

B) I'm really interested to see what happens this season. This should be a team that competes for 10 wins. Veteran team with lots of experience. Tied for the most returning starters in the SEC. Defense should be very good. Pass rush should be better. Secondary should be better at safety for sure. However, the Airbone still has people wondering if it can get us there. Plus- what adjustments do defenses make against it this season?

C) Nobody has ever seen me call for the "days of Jackie". I havent had a team line-up in the I formation since 1995. I havent had a team take a snap from under Center (except for a 2pt conversion) since I got back into coaching in 2016. I do however think the Mullen/Freezus way of coaching offense suits Mississippi and its surrounding area of talent much better than the Airbone. Both of those guys got Mississippi programs into the Top 5 conversation- something Leach and the Airbone will almost assuredly never be. Mullen couldnt recruit consistently enough at WR and OL while Freezus needed to recruit better on D and a little more team discipline. But both hugely successful in the Magnolia state.

LOL!

Dude, Freeze was running an offense closer to the AR than Mullen. Freeze did not hesitate to throw it down the field. And often. That's how he beat Bama TWICE. Everything in your post just proves me right. You're gonna get a major hard on if this season goes South. It will make your day b/c bottom line is, you hate the AR. That's all.

But that's you. You do you. This is what makes you Coach34. So don't fail us now.

[confucius say]

Too funny.

A) I never want us to lose. I just get joy out of sticking it to people when they are wrong. (Just as many do to me on that rare occasion I am)

B) I'm really interested to see what happens this season. This should be a team that competes for 10 wins. Veteran team with lots of experience. Tied for the most returning starters in the SEC. Defense should be very good. Pass rush should be better. Secondary should be better at safety for sure. However, the Airbone still has people wondering if it can get us there. Plus- what adjustments do defenses make against it this season?

C) Nobody has ever seen me call for the "days of Jackie". I havent had a team line-up in the I formation since 1995. I havent had a team take a snap from under Center (except for a 2pt conversion) since I got back into coaching in 2016. I do however think the Mullen/Freezus way of coaching offense suits Mississippi and its surrounding area of talent much better than the Airbone. Both of those guys got Mississippi programs into the Top 5 conversation- something Leach and the Airbone will almost assuredly never be. Mullen couldnt recruit consistently enough at WR and OL while Freezus needed to recruit better on D and a little more team discipline. But both hugely successful in the Magnolia state.

The worst recruiter in the west playing the hardest league schedule in the sec should compete for 10 wins? Geez. I don't care if we return all 22 starters. Maybe if you count a bowl game you could argue "compete for 10," meaning 9-3/8-4 with a bowl win gets you to 9 or 10.

I agree Dan's offense fit MS athletes better. But Dan averaged 7.1-4.9 here with his offense. We will see how leach does. Dan went 10-2 because he had an all pro qb from LA who will likely be in the hall of fame one day. Then went 8-4 with the same qb bc he had nothing around him. I still think Dan did a great job here overall.

[Coach34]

LOL!Dude, Freeze was running an offense closer to the AR than Mullen. Freeze did not hesitate to throw it down the field. And often.

Well, thats just incorrect. Chad Kelly ran for over 800 yards in his 2 years. Mississippi threw it down the field because they had some dudes that could go get it- we did not. Bear and his 4.78 40 was made to win against safeties and LB's. We could have stretched the field more with the other Fred but he got kicked out of school before the season in 2015. That's why in my post you saw me say Freezus recruited better at WR than we did. That's pretty obvious.

Not to mention you guys trying to act like Mullen was some kind of ground and pound guy is laughable.

2013? 5th most passes attempted in the SEC
2014? 6th most
2015? MOST passes attempted in the SEC
2016? 5th most
2017? 7th most

Mullen stayed in the top half of the SEC in passes thrown. Stop being ridiculous about the offense and how it was run.

[Coach34]

The worst recruiter in the west playing the hardest league schedule in the sec should compete for 10 wins? Geez. I don't care if we return all 22 starters. Maybe if you count a bowl game you could argue "compete for 10," meaning 9-3/8-4 with a bowl win gets you to 9 or 10.

I agree Dan's offense fit MS athletes better. But Dan averaged 7.1-4.9 here with his offense. We will see how leach does. Dan went 10-2 because he had an all pro qb from LA who will likely be in the hall of fame one day. Then went 8-4 with the same qb bc he had nothing around him. I still think Dan did a great job here overall.

Mullen took over a loser program and was averaging 8 wins per season when he left the program. Even a moron sees the 5 wins in 09 and 7 in 2011 as growing pains. Not to mention he had that 2018 primed for a run when he left.

We will always be the worst recruiter in the West because of the undervalued talent in Mississippi. Doesnt mean the talent isnt there. We have to be a developmental program. Developmental programs win when they have veteran teams. That is us in 2022. This is our shot because next year's team wont be near as good and the expectations will drop quit a bit. Everybody in the SEC has a tough schedule. Auburn plays Bama and Georgia also- except they do it EVERY year. It is what it is. Compete and win games.

[memsu06]

I'm looking forward to the after game reports when some of you have to eat crow when the Airbone is carving up defenses.

[RezDog7]

Well, thats just incorrect. Chad Kelly ran for over 800 yards in his 2 years. Mississippi threw it down the field because they had some dudes that could go get it- we did not. Bear and his 4.78 40 was made to win against safeties and LB's. We could have stretched the field more with the other Fred but he got kicked out of school before the season in 2015. That's why in my post you saw me say Freezus recruited better at WR than we did. That's pretty obvious.

Not to mention you guys trying to act like Mullen was some kind of ground and pound guy is laughable.

2013? 5th most passes attempted in the SEC
2014? 6th most
2015? MOST passes attempted in the SEC
2016? 5th most
2017? 7th most

Mullen stayed in the top half of the SEC in passes thrown. Stop being ridiculous about the offense and how it was run.

What about passes caught? Mullen and he's lazy ass recruiting destroyed our chances at winning at a higher clip.

[TrapGame]

Well, thats just incorrect. Chad Kelly ran for over 800 yards in his 2 years. Mississippi threw it down the field because they had some dudes that could go get it- we did not. Bear and his 4.78 40 was made to win against safeties and LB's. We could have stretched the field more with the other Fred but he got kicked out of school before the season in 2015. That's why in my post you saw me say Freezus recruited better at WR than we did. That's pretty obvious.

Not to mention you guys trying to act like Mullen was some kind of ground and pound guy is laughable.

2013? 5th most passes attempted in the SEC
2014? 6th most
2015? MOST passes attempted in the SEC
2016? 5th most
2017? 7th most

Mullen stayed in the top half of the SEC in passes thrown. Stop being ridiculous about the offense and how it was run.

Now give me the stats on 3rd and 7 QB draws and buck twenty backs up the middle.***

[TrapGame]

I'm looking forward to the after game reports when some of you have to eat crow when the Airbone is carving up defenses.

You have to be present to eat crow. Most will quickly disappear like Baptists in a liquor store. It happened a few times last season. Their agenda wasn't being fed so they stayed away and sulked.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Last year we were very close to 9 wins.

I mentioned this in a post last fall, but it's worth noting again that the sentiment about us being better than our record -- which I know is frustrating, dumb, and all the other things since a team's W/L total is what it is -- isn't just sour grapes. Bill Connelly developed a "post-game win expectancy" stat that is supposed to show which teams played better in a game regardless of the final score. Here's the gist from the horse's mouth back in 2015:

Win Expectancy. Also within the "last year's schedule and results" section, you'll find me using what I'm calling here "Win Expectancy." This communicates how frequently a team would have won a specific game given that game's primary stats. It is intended to say "Given your success rates, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc., you could have expected to win this game X% of the time." It has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments.

He posted the win expectancies for every 2021 game in a spreadsheet here. For each game, the spreadsheet shows the actual score, the win expectancy based upon how each team played, and then the "adjusted margin," which I believe is what his formula predicts the margin of victory "should" have been on average given the stats in the game.

Here is what our 2021 season looked like:



In three of our five losses, we had win expectancies of over 50%. Egg Bowl was close, Arkansas a little less so, and the Memphis game -- which featured the third-lowest win expectancy by a winning team all season -- was effing brutal.

So yeah, it's still sour grapes to talk about how we "should" have been a 9- or 10-win team. But we really were pretty damn close.

[Commercecomet24]

You have to be present to eat crow. Most will quickly disappear like Baptists in a liquor store. It happened a few times last season. Their agenda wasn't being fed so they stayed away and sulked.

You know it is funny but the in game threads and the post game threads when we lose are more numerous than when we win. I guess the moaning and whining is greater than the good feelings from winning.

[Commercecomet24]

I mentioned this in a post last fall, but it's worth noting again that the sentiment about us being better than our record -- which I know is frustrating, dumb, and all the other things since a team's W/L total is what it is -- isn't just sour grapes. Bill Connelly developed a "post-game win expectancy" stat that is supposed to show which teams played better in a game regardless of the final score. Here's the gist from the horse's mouth back in 2015:



He posted the win expectancies for every 2021 game in a spreadsheet here. For each game, the spreadsheet shows the actual score, the win expectancy based upon how each team played, and then the "adjusted margin," which I believe is what his formula predicts the margin of victory "should" have been on average given the stats in the game.

Here is what our 2021 season looked like:



In three of our five losses, we had win expectancies of over 50%. Egg Bowl was close, Arkansas a little less so, and the Memphis game -- which featured the third-lowest win expectancy by a winning team all season -- was effing brutal.

So yeah, it's still sour grapes to talk about how we "should" have been a 9- or 10-win team. But we really were pretty damn close.

I have really missed your posts! You really cut through all the subjective bs that most of us post. Post more, please!

[Prediction? Pain.]

I have really missed your posts! You really cut through all the subjective bs that most of us post. Post more, please!

Thanks, dude. I'm probably subconsciously trying to stir myself up a bit. I'm much more apt to get stoked over a kickass loaf of sourdough than sports these days. My 40s are gettin' weird . . . .

Oh, forgot to mention this earlier:

In case anyone's wondering how common it was last year for teams with > 50% win expectancies to lose, it only happened in five games involving SEC teams, three of which were ours. The other two were the UT-U.Miss and UF-Mizzou games.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, dude. I'm probably subconsciously trying to stir myself up a bit. I'm much more apt to get stoked over a kickass loaf of sourdough than sports these days. My 40s are gettin' weird . . . .

Oh, forgot to mention this earlier:

In case anyone's wondering how common it was last year for teams with > 50% win expectancies to lose, it only happened in five games involving SEC teams, three of which were ours. The other two were the UT-U.Miss and UF-Mizzou games.

You're welcome! I'm right there with you and it gets even weirder in your 50s. The things you used to think were so important(like sports) become less so. Actually more enjoyable now because your favorite team losing doesn't seem like life or death anymore, lol. Always appreciate your analysis and hope to see more! Always so informative!

PS we really need you during baseball season!

[HoopsDawg]

And not to pick this apart anymore but we have tightened the splits when we needed to. It is going to be ok. Leach is never going to change and he is always going to win.

Do you remember when I told you a month ago that Dolla Bill was going to be our starting LT and you told me I was wrong? Just wondering.

[DownwardDawg]

My thoughts- We are always behind everyone else for some reason. We hired Mullen and ran a version of the spread after other schools had been doing it for years. The blue bloods have been moving to heavy pass offenses and they've recruited defensive players to defend those type offenses. What does MSU do? We go to a heavy pass offense once everyone else is geared to stop it. Personally, I would have hired a coach that would have recruited to run a Gus Malzahn type offense with HEAVY emphasis on the run spread. Obviously I would have recruited dual threat QB's only.

With that said, I love Leach and really hope he succeeds. Will Rogers is a true Bulldog and I would love nothing more than for him to win an SEC championship.

Flame away. Just my opinion and what I would do as MSU AD.

[IMissJack]

Stick to basketball, ?hoops?

[thf24]

My thoughts- We are always behind everyone else for some reason. We hired Mullen and ran a version of the spread after other schools had been doing it for years. The blue bloods have been moving to heavy pass offenses and they've recruited defensive players to defend those type offenses. What does MSU do? We go to a heavy pass offense once everyone else is geared to stop it. Personally, I would have hired a coach that would have recruited to run a Gus Malzahn type offense with HEAVY emphasis on the run spread. Obviously I would have recruited dual threat QB's only.

With that said, I love Leach and really hope he succeeds. Will Rogers is a true Bulldog and I would love nothing more than for him to win an SEC championship.

Flame away. Just my opinion and what I would do as MSU AD.

I don't think defenses have evolved towards defending the pass so much as they have defending the spread, whatever mode of attack it might prefer, with more tweener DE/LB and LB/S types. It may hurt us a little more than others not seeing much strict 4-3 personnel anymore, but it's not as if everyone is primarily recruiting for dime looks either.

[Todd4State]

My thoughts- We are always behind everyone else for some reason. We hired Mullen and ran a version of the spread after other schools had been doing it for years. The blue bloods have been moving to heavy pass offenses and they've recruited defensive players to defend those type offenses. What does MSU do? We go to a heavy pass offense once everyone else is geared to stop it. Personally, I would have hired a coach that would have recruited to run a Gus Malzahn type offense with HEAVY emphasis on the run spread. Obviously I would have recruited dual threat QB's only.

With that said, I love Leach and really hope he succeeds. Will Rogers is a true Bulldog and I would love nothing more than for him to win an SEC championship.

Flame away. Just my opinion and what I would do as MSU AD.

Well the one time we tried to go ahead of the curve in football was when we hired Moorhead.