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  1. #81
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer View Post
    Crazy and Lazy Math - business math, not engineering or stochastic analysis. I am going to explore this number further as SEC only, Friday Only, etc.

    If you give last years team the current Team ERA, basically 2 runs more to the opponents. The 2021 national champs lose 5 or 6 more SEC games. They finish 15-15 in the SEC. They probably don't survive Notre Dame and even make Omaha. That's with Rowdey and the Goat hitting.

    The pitching depth is the obvious and clear problem. 2021 with Landon Sims closing the toughest games, the team gave up 51 runs in 68 games in the 8th and 9th inning. This year, 80 runs in the last two innings in just 48 games.

    You can't portal-In a Bednar, BJ Wallace or Sims, but if MSU can portal in Colby White, Spencer Price, Zach Neff and JP France the boys can win 16 to 17 games in the SEC next year. With Daniel Brown (Daniel not Paul) added to mix, you have a Super Regional team easy. These were all great players, but certainly gettable players from JC and D1 transfers. You will need to recruit 6 players cause someone will have Canadian Syndrome. Yes, just asking for a minor miracle here.
    Already got our Colby White coming in from Juco. But he's hitting 100+ on the gun, not 95 like White.

  2. #82
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer View Post
    Crazy and Lazy Math - business math, not engineering or stochastic analysis. I am going to explore this number further as SEC only, Friday Only, etc.

    If you give last years team the current Team ERA, basically 2 runs more to the opponents. The 2021 national champs lose 5 or 6 more SEC games. They finish 15-15 in the SEC. They probably don't survive Notre Dame and even make Omaha. That's with Rowdey and the Goat hitting.

    The pitching depth is the obvious and clear problem. 2021 with Landon Sims closing the toughest games, the team gave up 51 runs in 68 games in the 8th and 9th inning. This year, 80 runs in the last two innings in just 48 games.

    You can't portal-In a Bednar, BJ Wallace or Sims, but if MSU can portal in Colby White, Spencer Price, Zach Neff and JP France the boys can win 16 to 17 games in the SEC next year. With Daniel Brown (Daniel not Paul) added to mix, you have a Super Regional team easy. These were all great players, but certainly gettable players from JC and D1 transfers. You will need to recruit 6 players cause someone will have Canadian Syndrome. Yes, just asking for a minor miracle here.
    Closer. Closer. Closer. Not having a closer this year easily cost us 8-10 wins - maybe more. As a team, we have 4 saves this year. Last year, Sims had 13 and the team total was 18. 2019 Gordon had 11 and the team had 16. 2018 we had 14 as a team. 2017 Price had 14 and the team had 26. 2016 we had 19. You get the picture. This is our worst season for saves since 2015 (9), and the lowest total I can find going back to at least 1987 (5 - and I don't think the records on thebaseballcube.com are complete).
    "After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
    - Tom Mars, Esq. 4.9.18

  3. #83
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Already got our Colby White coming in from Juco. But he's hitting 100+ on the gun, not 95 like White.
    Yep and I've seen him pitch. Gonna be a great addition.

  4. #84
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    Closer. Closer. Closer. Not having a closer this year easily cost us 8-10 wins - maybe more. As a team, we have 4 saves this year. Last year, Sims had 13 and the team total was 18. 2019 Gordon had 11 and the team had 16. 2018 we had 14 as a team. 2017 Price had 14 and the team had 26. 2016 we had 19. You get the picture. This is our worst season for saves since 2015 (9), and the lowest total I can find going back to at least 1987 (5 - and I don't think the records on thebaseballcube.com are complete).
    Good post. The fact not having a closer and having to push some of our best bullpen guys to the starting rotation which moved our weaker bullpen arms into key roles really hurt. The domino effect hurt bad this year.

  5. #85
    Our Pretentious Preacher preachermatt83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CadaverDawg View Post
    You're on the clock next year. This shit is unacceptable. The Natty honeymoon is over. Shape up next year or ship out
    There is no way this was typed while sober
    Romans 5:8

  6. #86
    Senior Member KOdawg1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Yep and I've seen him pitch. Gonna be a great addition.
    How confident are we he comes to school? MLB doesn't let too many 100+ arms walk away.

  7. #87
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KOdawg1 View Post
    How confident are we he comes to school? MLB doesn't let too many 100+ arms walk away.
    Don't think he's draft eligible but could be wrong.

  8. #88
    Senior Member basedog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Good post. The fact not having a closer and having to push some of our best bullpen guys to the starting rotation which moved our weaker bullpen arms into key roles really hurt. The domino effect hurt bad this year.
    Big time!

  9. #89
    Senior Member basedog's Avatar
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    Not making the Sec tourney is like 1-10 (La Tech). Not sure what the situation I would take if I was Lemonis, but with the portal and transfer rules I wonder about some of the guys who have eligibility if they will be asked back next year from Lemonis. I don't have the answers, but something has to be "upgraded and corrected".

  10. #90
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Hell, look how many guys we've signed and brought in that didn't even make the team for spring. It's been a high number. Recruiting is a concern. Everybody knows I'm not a big Foxhall guy, but I'm cutting him slack this year. We simply have to recruit better. We should be signing big time players all over the country, not just the MS, AL kids. We used to get a lot of FL kids that we don't now too.

  11. #91
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Hell, look how many guys we've signed and brought in that didn't even make the team for spring. It's been a high number. Recruiting is a concern. Everybody knows I'm not a big Foxhall guy, but I'm cutting him slack this year. We simply have to recruit better. We should be signing big time players all over the country, not just the MS, AL kids. We used to get a lot of FL kids that we don't now too.
    I think the expanded COVID roster last year is the cause of a lot of that. 2019 and 2020 kids got zero development time unless they could break into the line up. The expanded roster helped us win with pitching depth last year, and hurt us with development for this year and possibly next. A lot of those 2019-20 kids are playing well in JUCO.
    "After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
    - Tom Mars, Esq. 4.9.18

  12. #92
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    I think the expanded COVID roster last year is the cause of a lot of that. 2019 and 2020 kids got zero development time unless they could break into the line up. The expanded roster helped us win with pitching depth last year, and hurt us with development for this year and possibly next. A lot of those 2019-20 kids are playing well in JUCO.
    We cut transfers too. So it's not simply that. We've not evaluated well enough.

  13. #93
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    This is maybe the worst thing any of our fan base should believe. We win 1 Natty and we should become a Bama like dynasty? Look, I get that we have great fan support and have a great tradition, and we invest in baseball - but that just ain't going to happen. There is no Alabama of college baseball. College baseball isn't built that way - at least not since the 1980s when the SEC finally woke up and started really competing for CWS spots. Outside of USC's 12 titles (all but 1 of which was pre-1980), no one has more than 6 titles. And if you break that down further to post 1980, only LSU (with all 6 of theirs) has more than 3 titles. Baseball is not a sport of single dominance when it comes titles, and since the Super Regional Era began, it has gotten increasingly difficult to even make the CWS multiple years in a row.

    Now - if you want to quantify it better as we should "expect to be a playoff team every year", I think that is legit. If you want to say we should have multiple CWS appearances every decade, I think you'd have a strong argument.
    Now NIL and all the pay for play schemes that are popping up may change all of that - assuming it is allowed to continue in it's current form. But in a sport where Coastal Carolina has 1 CWS appearance, with a win, and FSU has 23 CWS appearances without ever winning a title - expecting anyone to have Bama-like dominance is just ridiculous.
    Why is that? Baseball is difficult to win a championship in. But this is also the same sport that the Yankees have dominated and at this level USC has done it and LSU has done it as well. So it's not impossible either. The key word here is "strive"- not "should".

    There are 12 legit blue bloods in the sport IMO- Mississippi State, LSU, Arkansas, Texas, Miami, Florida State, USC, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, Oregon State, and Cal State Fullerton. I'm not including Vanderbilt because the reason they have won titles is because of their endowment advantage which I think is a house of cards with the new scholarship rules coming into effect soon and they haven't shown that they can consistently compete with different coaches. If they can sustain their success I'll change my mind. Anyway of that group the majority of those schools are in baseball hot beds or border baseball hot beds like California, Florida, or Texas. Of that group the only schools that can rival us in terms of facilities and support are LSU and Arkansas and maybe Florida State. Both LSU and Arkansas focus on other sports in addition to baseball and they are also both in or near AA baseball sized cities which helps with their attendance figures. And yet- we technically outdraw those two despite being 2 hours away from a AA city and a AAA city in Memphis. With Tupelo and Meridian being the size of A ball cities.

    So, like Alabama in football which is also not in a major football producing state like California or Texas we also put more and invest more in baseball than the other blue bloods. The biggest reason we don't have more National Championships IMO is because we really only came onto the national scene in 1979 making us still relatively new for a blue blood and the scholarship limits really hurt us for a long time. Especially since we weren't really playing on a level playing field with LSU in the 1990's and Vanderbilt the past 15-20 years or so. That is about to change finally which will allow us to finally potentially recruit at our peak. And like Alabama which produces some good high school football players we can still recruit nationally from the major baseball producing states while also getting the best in Mississippi. And we will have the scholarship money and NIL money to make it work compared to others.

    And we didn't even really start trying to make a push for a National Championship as a University until Greg Byrne became the AD and brought in Cohen. Since 2011 when Cohen got us back on our feet we have:

    1. Been to the three most prestigious early season tournaments in college baseball in Houston, Dallas, and Los Angeles and did well at all three.
    2. Had a 7-3 record in the Governor's Cup with two of our losses coming in years where we had meltdown years.
    3. Won the SEC
    4. Won the SEC Tournament
    5. Hosted and won Regionals and have only been eliminated from a regional twice since 2011.
    6. Been a National Seed Three times
    7. Been to 7 Super Regionals and won four of them
    8. Been to the College World Series four times including three times in a row.
    9. Been the National Runner up
    10 Won a National Title.

    My whole point to all of this is our "bad years" should not be complete meltdown years and that we as a program should not settle for just the one National Championship and continue to move it forward. We invest too much and have too many resources to have a 25 win season because of injuries. My minimum expectation for our program is to simply go to a Super Regional every year. Which is fair. I can tolerate being eliminated in a regional. This season is completely unacceptable. And I could honestly tolerate this if it was say once every 25-30 years. For us though this has happened 4 going on 5 times the past 25 years. Of the SEC bluebloods Arkansas has only had one year like this recently and LSU has never had a year like this since Bertman took over- even during the Smoke Laval years. Ole Miss hasn't had a year like this under Bianco- even years when they were riddled with pitching injuries. USM hasn't had a year like this and they even made a coaching change since the Hill Denson days. So we've accomplished more but we've also had some Chernobyl type seasons as well. Even if you take out the Polk/Cohen transition years we've had more seasons like this.

    The last thing I'll say about this- as of even last year I had fans telling me that we would never win a National Championship. And here we are. Now as far as becoming the dominant force in college baseball we need to start looking at ways where we can become dominant and building our team properly where we can withstand and weather potential storms better than we have this year. We have all of the ingredients in place- former players in MLB having a lot of success and many former alums in MLB. Most of those still follow and care about our program as much or more than any of us. Former players who were first round picks as both hitters and pitchers. And hopefully Logan Tanner can be a first round pick catcher. We have a LOT we can point to as far as recruiting.

  14. #94
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    We cut transfers too. So it's not simply that. We've not evaluated well enough.
    Please tell me that you are not referring to our current players who won the National Championship last year? I think Landon Sims debunked this with his tweet last week better than I ever could.

    We have talent. And the MLB draft next month will further prove my point on that I'm sure.

    The issue I see is development. Which goes back to what I was talking about with Foxhall's just throw them out there and let them figure it out approach. Fristoe and Tepper are great examples. Both throw in the mid 90's. Both have inconsistent mechanics. If we had a coach that could teach that better then they would be better which would in turn make the team better.

    Another example from last year was Eric Cerentola. Same issues essentially.

    Even though our players are very talented they still need to be coached. They're still developing. This isn't MLB where you have a guy that's at least 23 years old and has been in the minors or even older and is fully developed where it's basically troubleshooting for the coaches at that point and making sure reps are maintained.

  15. #95
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Please tell me that you are not referring to our current players who won the National Championship last year? I think Landon Sims debunked this with his tweet last week better than I ever could.

    We have talent. And the MLB draft next month will further prove my point on that I'm sure.

    The issue I see is development. Which goes back to what I was talking about with Foxhall's just throw them out there and let them figure it out approach. Fristoe and Tepper are great examples. Both throw in the mid 90's. Both have inconsistent mechanics. If we had a coach that could teach that better then they would be better which would in turn make the team better.

    Another example from last year was Eric Cerentola. Same issues essentially.

    Even though our players are very talented they still need to be coached. They're still developing. This isn't MLB where you have a guy that's at least 23 years old and has been in the minors or even older and is fully developed where it's basically troubleshooting for the coaches at that point and making sure reps are maintained.
    We don't have the talent we should.

  16. #96
    Senior Member basedog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Please tell me that you are not referring to our current players who won the National Championship last year? I think Landon Sims debunked this with his tweet last week better than I ever could.

    We have talent. And the MLB draft next month will further prove my point on that I'm sure.

    The issue I see is development. Which goes back to what I was talking about with Foxhall's just throw them out there and let them figure it out approach. Fristoe and Tepper are great examples. Both throw in the mid 90's. Both have inconsistent mechanics. If we had a coach that could teach that better then they would be better which would in turn make the team better.

    Another example from last year was Eric Cerentola. Same issues essentially.

    Even though our players are very talented they still need to be coached. They're still developing. This isn't MLB where you have a guy that's at least 23 years old and has been in the minors or even older and is fully developed where it's basically troubleshooting for the coaches at that point and making sure reps are maintained.
    Some guys just don’t develope,tell me how Eric Certentola is doing? Blaming Foxhall for Fristoe and Tepper, I ain’t buying. Blaming guys who swing and miss plus watch strike three ain’t coaching either. Baseball ain’t all about Coaching, athletes adjust with minor tweaking, not every pitcher can have same mechanics as well as batters.
    I blame “most” of our problems on the players. I also think our Coaches haven’t done the best job coaching some up also. Recruiting has to improve and staying injure free is a must.

  17. #97
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    Who are we losing from this team next year?

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Don't think he's draft eligible but could be wrong.
    He's a juco. All jucos are draft eligible.

  19. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by basedog View Post
    Some guys just don’t develope,tell me how Eric Certentola is doing? Blaming Foxhall for Fristoe and Tepper, I ain’t buying. Blaming guys who swing and miss plus watch strike three ain’t coaching either. Baseball ain’t all about Coaching, athletes adjust with minor tweaking, not every pitcher can have same mechanics as well as batters.
    I blame “most” of our problems on the players. I also think our Coaches haven’t done the best job coaching some up also. Recruiting has to improve and staying injure free is a must.
    I agree, when you recruit guys so far in the future, anything can happen. From Austin Tyler that develops too quick and becomes a 1st rounder to Luken Baker (TCU) kid. The TCU kid went from modern Babe Ruth to positionlees pinch hitter with a little pop.

    I think MSU fans may be tunnel visioned on MSU. Forgetting that we did not have a stable program for 3 years. Also, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Florida are recruiting machines too. Florida is loaded with busted "10" rated players. Arkansas ticks on quality volume. Wiggins is still a work in progress and Stovall is not outperforming Hunter Hines. Our guy looks more like the new Todd Walker.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Already got our Colby White coming in from Juco. But he's hitting 100+ on the gun, not 95 like White.
    If the 100 is legit, let's stop talking about it. Atlanta Braves love to wreck our Recruiting classes.

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