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Thread: Mizzou game 1

  1. #61
    Senior Member MetEdDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG View Post
    Wow I don?t usually pay much attention to RPI because we aren?t usually a bubble team but if this is a big factor we need to win 16 games to get into the tournament. Right now we are last or 2nd to last in the SEC. That Long Beach State series loss is a killer and losing 2 of 3 to Tulane hurts
    Tulane isn't hurting us. You would like to win that series, but they have an RPI of 54. Long Beach is killing us, but that loss to a Northern Kentucky team that has an RPI of 228 is really messing with us.

    Good thing is we end our conference slate with the #12 RPI in Florida, @#19 RPI TAMU, and #1 Tennessee. Go 5-4 in that stretch and we are probably a guarantee to be in as long as we take 1 more from Missouri.

  2. #62
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MetEdDawg View Post
    Tulane isn't hurting us. You would like to win that series, but they have an RPI of 54. Long Beach is killing us, but that loss to a Northern Kentucky team that has an RPI of 228 is really messing with us.

    Good thing is we end our conference slate with the #12 RPI in Florida, @#19 RPI TAMU, and #1 Tennessee. Go 5-4 in that stretch and we are probably a guarantee to be in as long as we take 1 more from Missouri.
    UNA is about a 10-point scheduled drop in RPI. I base this on JSU, who is about the same RPI, and it cost us 10 spots for run ruling them

  3. #63
    Senior Member MetEdDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    UNA is about a 10-point scheduled drop in RPI. I base this on JSU, who is about the same RPI, and it cost us 10 spots for run ruling them
    End of year I would just rather us not play these games, or play them against someone what decent competition. You would hope with our track record that a super low RPI game like that wouldn't matter. But it absolutely does this year.

    I would love to see us cancel that game if we can. Amy chance of rain or wet field and we probably will.

  4. #64
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MetEdDawg View Post
    End of year I would just rather us not play these games, or play them against someone what decent competition. You would hope with our track record that a super low RPI game like that wouldn't matter. But it absolutely does this year.

    I would love to see us cancel that game if we can. Amy chance of rain or wet field and we probably will.
    We absolutely should cancel if possible

  5. #65
    Senior Member FISHDAWG's Avatar
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    At least we still have a punchers chance... if this was football we would be hoping for a chance at the Liberty Bowl.
    R
    OXFORD, Miss. (WTVA) - Ole Miss campus police ask students to behave at future baseball games following a recent incident.
    The university said students were reportedly throwing rocks at Georgia baseball players during last weekend's series.

  6. #66
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    Just win 15 SECgames and we will be ok

  7. #67
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    From the dispatch:

    The magic number
    Every SEC team in the list that won 14 or more conference games over the past three seasons earned admission to the NCAA tournament.

  8. #68
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MetEdDawg View Post
    Need to get to minimum 15. 73% of teams in conference that get to 15-15 make the tournament. I think 16-14 is 100%.

    I don't think 14 gets us in because our RPI would be pretty bad still.

    I would like to think our name gets us in, but I don't see it, especially if our RPI is over 60, which it would likely be if we only win 5 of our last 11 conference games to get to 14 conference wins.

    Over the last 3 seasons EVERY SEC team with 14 sec wins has made a regional.

    The magic number
    Every SEC team in the list that won 14 or more conference games over the past three seasons earned admission to the NCAA tournament.

  9. #69
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    Teams ahead us in RPI that have bad Conference records thus far.

    Florida
    Clemson
    North Carolina
    South Carolina
    Ole Miss
    Baylor
    Missouri

    It will be harder for them to get to 13 conference wins than for us to get to 14 from where they are right now. Most will have to Go 8-3 or 7-4 to get there. Missouri will have to go 9-2. Only one of those teams has 8 conference wins.

    Baylor, Clemson, and North Carolina are in big trouble even with winning overall records right now. Florida has the best RPI and SOS of this group but they are 7-12 SEC and still have to come to Starkville.

    14 SEC wins is probably 80% in for us.

    Our problem now is not RPI, it is WINS! We need 5 or 6 SEC wins out of the remaining 11. I would prefer 7-4 and not worry about that other 20% mid major factor knocking us out.

  10. #70
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Over the last 3 seasons EVERY SEC team with 14 sec wins has made a regional.

    The magic number
    Every SEC team in the list that won 14 or more conference games over the past three seasons earned admission to the NCAA tournament.
    2021 14-win sec teams and rpi:
    SC #20

    2020: no tourney

    2019 14-win sec teams and rpi:
    Auburn 14
    Tenn #19

    2018 no 14-win sec teams

  11. #71
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    RPI in the 40s and I'll feel good

  12. #72
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    how about we just go win the SECT? we might actually have to try this year so why not? put all this rpi talk to bed

  13. #73
    Senior Member MetEdDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Over the last 3 seasons EVERY SEC team with 14 sec wins has made a regional.

    The magic number
    Every SEC team in the list that won 14 or more conference games over the past three seasons earned admission to the NCAA tournament.
    Can you provide the RPI of those teams?

    If you feel comfortable at 14 then you do you. But if you are confident that something like a sweep this weekend and us going 3-6 against Florida, TAMU, and Tennessee gets us in I'm glad that you are able to get to that point because I think we are out by a decent margin in that scenario.

    I think in that scenario we would need a semifinal run in the SEC Tournament at 14-16 to get us in.

    ETA: Looks like msstate7 got it and proved my point. Our RPI almost assuredly wont be Top 40 if we go 14-16. Possibly wont be Top 50. We do not get in with that.
    Last edited by MetEdDawg; 04-30-2022 at 11:56 AM.

  14. #74
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MetEdDawg View Post
    Can you provide the RPI of those teams?

    If you feel comfortable at 14 then you do you. But if you are confident that something like a sweep this weekend and us going 3-6 against Florida, TAMU, and Tennessee gets us in I'm glad that you are able to get to that point because I think we are out by a decent margin in that scenario.

    I think in that scenario we would need a semifinal run in the SEC Tournament at 14-16 to get us in.

    ETA: Looks like msstate7 got it and proved my point. Our RPI almost assuredly wont be Top 40 if we go 14-16. Possibly wont be Top 50. We do not get in with that.
    You're entitled to your opinion. We'll just see how it plays out then. They're not gonna leave a top 7 sec team and defending national champs at home with 14 sec wins, just not gonna happen. But i would sure love us to get to 15+ and then it's all moot. I believe we'll get to 15.

  15. #75
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    how about we just go win the SECT? we might actually have to try this year so why not? put all this rpi talk to bed
    That'll work!!!

  16. #76
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MetEdDawg View Post
    Tulane isn't hurting us. You would like to win that series, but they have an RPI of 54. Long Beach is killing us, but that loss to a Northern Kentucky team that has an RPI of 228 is really messing with us.

    Good thing is we end our conference slate with the #12 RPI in Florida, @#19 RPI TAMU, and #1 Tennessee. Go 5-4 in that stretch and we are probably a guarantee to be in as long as we take 1 more from Missouri.
    Tulane is hurting us in that we didn't win. Same with Long Beach State and USM.

    RPI is more about stacking wins.

  17. #77
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    FWIW, I'm not saying a low RPI and 14 sec wins isn't good enough. I don't know. To feel comfortable, I think winning 3 of the last 4 series should be the goal. Gotta chance to get the 1 of them today. I don't think we can get swept in the Tenn series

  18. #78
    Senior Member MetEdDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Tulane is hurting us in that we didn't win. Same with Long Beach State and USM.

    RPI is more about stacking wins.
    In that way, technically every single loss hurts. But when you look at what's really dragging down our RPI and major regrets this season, Tulane would rank 4th or 5th on my list of scores I wish I could change behind Northern Kentucky, any Long Beach State loss, Game 2 @UGA, and arguably game 3 against Auburn.

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