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Thread: Keep an eye on late this weekend

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Keep an eye on late this weekend

    Models are starting to trend towards an interesting direction. The last few days they've gone from sunny and in the 40's to low 50's to a colder with chances of precipitation. I'll let you put 2 and 2 together. As of right now, only the Euro model has gone fully on board with a wintry weekend, but the others are slowly easing that direction. About 4 of the GFS ensemble members are on board, too. Now, this far out the next run may be sunny and 60 and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Winter weather is notoriously hard to forecast here. Of the models showing snow this weekend the line looks to roughly be north of a Yazoo City to Macon area with accumulation amounts ranging from 2-6". But again, no way of knowing this far out. We could get more than this, less, or none at all. None at all usually wins out at least 95% of the time it seems.

    Trends have been building for a pattern flip bringing down arctic air to the eastern 1/3 of the US. Temps in northwest Canada are running -30 to -40. If the pattern flip holds, pieces of that cold air will start breaking off and heading SE. Depending on how much breaks free and how fast it travels will determine how much it modifies as it heads this way. Regarding this, the models have been wildly inconsistent. They've ranged from "this isn't too bad" to "you won't see your balls again until St. Patrick's day." This looks to be the case through at least the end of the month. So IF these pieces of arctic air break off and can make their way here reasonably intact and IF we can get some moisture in place at the same time then parts of the southeast could have a chance of multiple rounds of wintry weather over the next 2-3 weeks.

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    Senior Member Thick's Avatar
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    Thanks bud!

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    You know you are teasing me with the talk of wintry weather - I love it! I hope you are not disappointing us!

    I enjoyed my 4 years in the greater Boston area where my first winter there (2014/2015) we had 10' of snow over the winter season. I was in heaven!

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extendedcab View Post
    You know you are teasing me with the talk of wintry weather - I love it! I hope you are not disappointing us!

    I enjoyed my 4 years in the greater Boston area where my first winter there (2014/2015) we had 10' of snow over the winter season. I was in heaven!
    I assure you the sight of snow falling makes me five years old all over again. I could sit and watch it fall all day and night. When it snows at night I'll turn on the patio lights so I can watch it fall. When a forecast of snow busts it's devastating to me. So I'm right there with you hoping this happens. Right now it's a long shot but it's slightly less of a long shot than it was 24 hours ago.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Nashville????

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    Nashville????
    Haven't really looked that far north but I'd keep an eye out, too. Probably more than us here.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Haven't really looked that far north but I'd keep an eye out, too. Probably more than us here.
    Yeah, I see now it looks like at least 3 inches. It's early. That means it'll be a ton like last week.

    I'm like you. I love this. Any flakes me me smile. I'm 54 and love it like a kid. It just sucks having to drive in it.

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    I assure you the sight of snow falling makes me five years old all over again. I could sit and watch it fall all day and night. When it snows at night I'll turn on the patio lights so I can watch it fall. When a forecast of snow busts it's devastating to me. So I'm right there with you hoping this happens. Right now it's a long shot but it's slightly less of a long shot than it was 24 hours ago.
    Same here.

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    Better get an early start to the Milk and Bread section.

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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Better get an early start to the Milk and Bread section.
    Forget about finding bread and milk?

    COVID!

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Making my nipples hard!

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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainObvious View Post
    Forget about finding bread and milk?

    COVID!
    You mean Toilet Paper and Lysol.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    This system seems unpredictable so far. Seeing forecasts from freezing rain/light snow to 4-6 inches of snow. Guess it depends where the colder temperatures fall.

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    Senior Member OLJWales's Avatar
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    I love snow but I'd grow tired of clearing my driveway every day throughout an entire winter. And MINUS 35!?? Aw Hell Naw. Don't even wanna think about that.
    Truth is stranger than fiction because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn?t.
    A Lie Can Travel Halfway Around the World While the Truth Is Putting On Its Shoes

    Mark Twain

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    This system seems unpredictable so far. Seeing forecasts from freezing rain/light snow to 4-6 inches of snow. Guess it depends where the colder temperatures fall.
    It's the nightmare of predicting winter weather down here. Everything has to set up perfectly for it to happen and it's impossible to know if that will happen until right before it starts. And then you're still not sure a lot of times.

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    I also noticed the last few years the upper level lows bringing their own cold air tend to produce a few snows in the Deep South.

    Like you said, that absolute Perfect set up with the High over the Midwest in absolutely the perfect place driving the cold air south or southeasterly and that strong Low sliding along the Gulf also pulling the cold air down while throwing the gulf moisture over the top is so rare for us Middle Gulf Coasters, whereas that setup may Miss us and the low tracks across Georgia and South Carolina and combines with another Low in the Ohio/PA region with cold air in place and drops 15-20 inches in NC and Va. valleys.

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    Senior Member TNDawg35's Avatar
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    Weather channel this afternoon was showing extremely heavy stuff over literally my house (Tipton/Shelby line) Any word on that?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNDawg35 View Post
    Weather channel this afternoon was showing extremely heavy stuff over literally my house (Tipton/Shelby line) Any word on that?
    The models have been somewhat consistent in developing a band of heavy snow across parts of TN. But the exact location will come down to where the low tracks. A difference of 25-50 miles makes all the difference in the world.

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    Senior Member Barking 13's Avatar
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    Was that your video on yt? NMC&S
    cautiously optimistic

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barking 13 View Post
    Was that your video on yt? NMC&S
    If you're talking about the one on the winter weather then no. That was done by another guy on our team.

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