Today's severe weather threat

[starkvegasdawg]

Is going to be highly conditional. Due to this the SPC has shaved back the enhanced threat to basically north of Highway 82 in MS and Birmingham north in Alabama. They are still maintaining the 10% hatched tornado threat for this area. The big condition is a very strong capping inversion in the mid levels of the atmosphere. The models don't know how to handle it. The trusty HRRR is showing the cap breaking around 1:00 and tornadic supercells developing by 2:00 in eastern MS. It's absolutely worst case scenario. Some of the other models are showing the cap holding and storms holding off until the qlcs moves through tonight. It will have a straight line wind threat and a couple embedded tornadoes. Some of the other models are in between these two solitons. I wish I could say what is going to happen. I usually tend to lean towards the HRRR for day of events, but it's not infallible. Basically this afternoon if you look up at the sky and see cumulus clouds all of a sudden going from little cotton balls to exploding up in height then the cap has broken and get ready. Mjoelner and I will be meeting up around noon and probably staging somewhere around West Point.

As a reminder, if anything develops and i livestream, it will be available today only on our YouTube channel and not behind our Patreon paywall site.

Also, thanks so much again for your support in getting us subscribers. At last look we were at 598. 24 hours ago it was 215.

[RougeDawg]

Good stuff. Thanks for the heads up. Hunting today between Amory and Aberdeen. Praying it?s not the worst case scenario described above. Pretty calm here now.

[MetEdDawg]

Higher resolution models support this thinking too. I'm not sure it's worst case scenario but it could end up being a fairly productive tornado day .

Really is very conditional on the cap breaking which it looks like could happen in the northern 1/3 of MS and AL

[starkvegasdawg]

The 14z hrrr is just flat out scary. No other words for it. If that cap breaks all hell is going to break loose.

[RougeDawg]

Well the humidity does appear to be dropping as the morning has gone on in the stand. Was really sticky and humid until about 8-9 pm last night and been getting better. Hopefully it helps keep things calmer.

[starkvegasdawg]

Moisture is here. Just may not feel as noticeable. Biggest thing is sunshine and temp. If we keep sun and we get the temp up in the upper 70's that could be enough to break the cap.

[RougeDawg]

10-4. Not much sun here. Pretty solid cloud cover. Feels nice.

[starkvegasdawg]

10-4. Not much sun here. Pretty solid cloud cover. Feels nice.

Where are you located if I may ask?

[RougeDawg]

Becker Bottom. About 500-600 yards off of Tombigbee.

Subscribed too.

[CrosscityDawg]

Sunny and 75 in Corinth right now.

[DownwardDawg]

Tornado warning in Kentucky

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting to get some shower development between Vicksburg and Yazoo city. Have to watch and see what those do. Are they just showers or future supercells.

[Saltydog]

Becker Bottom. About 500-600 yards off of Tombigbee.

Subscribed too.

Didn't realize you were a fellow Monroe Countian.......

[donald igwebuike]

Mostly sunny and 75 in Itawamba county. Very uncomfortable.

Vegas what is your YouTube URL, again?

[starkvegasdawg]

Mostly sunny and 75 in Itawamba county. Very uncomfortable.

Vegas what is your YouTube URL, again?

https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters

[RougeDawg]

Well I?m a part time Monroe county resident during deer season. Hunt on some old family farm land. Been coming up in these parts over 35 years.

[parabrave]

A line is starting to form around the ArkLaTex/ Temp on both sides of the front. TXarkana 66 OKC 22. Gonna be a bumpy ride along and north of 20 later today.

[Dawgbite]

Didn't realize you were a fellow Monroe Countian.......

Me too. I live only 3-4 miles from Becker Bottom, just across the river. It's probably a 15 mile drive either way.

[starkvegasdawg]

Chase mode is activated. Currently sitting near Okolona watching radar. Live stream may be going up before too much longer.

[Dawgology]

Just subscribed. My mom calls me every time there is news of local severe weather and asks me what y’all are saying on the forums. Haha