Saturday severe threat

[defiantdog]

Woke up this morning at 215. Now sitting at 540. I'll be doing a video tonight after the spc update at midnight. Not sure when it'll get posted on the site. I'm guessing tomorrow morning sometime. It'll basically be me going over the latest info and giving my thoughts on the set up. I'm hearing some grumblings of a possible upgrade to a moderate risk but I'm not sold on that unless some of the negatives working against a big time event are working themselves out.

I expect the northern half of AL and southern to mid to TN to go moderate at the least.

[starkvegasdawg]

I expect the northern half of AL and southern to mid to TN to go moderate at the least.

I'm thinking if there is a mod risk it would be NE MS into NW AL and then into central TN. A Starkville to Birmingham to Nashville to Oxford area.

[Commercecomet24]

I should have known the msu family would come through for me.

Gotta help you get there! You provide us so much great info and it's invaluable!

[DownwardDawg]

What's the timeline? My son plays downtown Nashville at Tootsies from 2-6pm. What we looking like??

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the timeline? My son plays downtown Nashville at Tootsies from 2-6pm. What we looking like??

I would say any time after 3:00pm I'd be keeping tabs on things. It may be later for the Nashville region but I'm not sure. As of last look storms look to start developing over MS around 1-2pm and then race off NE at 50-70mph. With discrete cells, if they form, you can't really give a timeline because they can form anywhere in the warm sector. There's no squall line you can track out. The first storm may form near Jackson and the second one at Pontotoc.

[Homedawg]

I'm thinking if there is a mod risk it would be NE MS into NW AL and then into central TN. A Starkville to Birmingham to Nashville to Oxford area.

Thanks for keeping us updated!

[defiantdog]

I would say any time after 3:00pm I'd be keeping tabs on things. It may be later for the Nashville region but I'm not sure. As of last look storms look to start developing over MS around 1-2pm and then race off NE at 50-70mph. With discrete cells, if they form, you can't really give a timeline because they can form anywhere in the warm sector. There's no squall line you can track out. The first storm may form near Jackson and the second one at Pontotoc.

What do you think about Memphis..... They don't typically get big tornados.

[starkvegasdawg]

What do you think about Memphis..... They don't typically get big tornados.

I think their main concern will be from the qlcs, or squall line, when it comes through. There will be embedded tornadic circulations within it but main threat will be straight line winds. The biggest tornadic concern will be from the discrete cells that fire ahead of the line. Right now that looks to be east MS into AL.

[DownwardDawg]

I just got hit with tornado watch. Davidson county Tennessee.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just got hit with tornado watch. Davidson county Tennessee.

Yeah. I don't think tonight will be a big event but after those two pop up storms in GA today that produced tornadoes I'll never say never. The atmosphere is extremely volatile right now.

[SilentSteel16]

Just subscribed as well. Thanks as always for the heads up and y’all be safe out there.

[DeltaChicagoDog]

Allow me to make a selfish request. Relax, it costs nothing. I'm asking any that are willing to go to my chase team YouTube channel and subscribe and to pass the word to others to do the same. We're trying hard to get up to 1,000 subscribers so we can allow ads for revenue and to be able to livestream without the use of a 3rd party app. Storm chasing is a rather expensive venture, especially with gas prices increasing, and right now it all comes 100% out of our own pockets. I would say an average chase costs in the neighborhood of $100 not counting the extra maintenance on vehicles plus equipment. For those of us where every dollar is important that can add up. I know right now we don't have a lot of videos uploaded to our channel but were trying to change that. Also why I'm asking for help here since it costs nothing. We do have a Patreon account for premium content but I'm not hawking it since I won't ask anybody to spend money.

https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters

Done

[MetEdDawg]

For those in Central Alabama, we are getting the rare but always interesting forecast discrepancy between our local NWS and the Storm Prediction Center.

The SPC maintains an enhanced risk down through a good portion of central AL. The local Bham NWS trimmed the enhanced risk area back considerably for the central Alabama warning area and even mentioned in their forecast product they considered removing it entirely due to the limiting factors out ahead of the line that might limit the development of discrete cells.

I'll be interested to see if the SPC holds on or if they make some changes at the 7:30 AM update. But it's always interesting when local NWS offices buck the bigger SPC trends. I will say our Bham NWS office is as good as they come. I've had a chance to work with some of those folks when I shadowed there and they know what the heck they are doing.

[defiantdog]

For those in Central Alabama, we are getting the rare but always interesting forecast discrepancy between our local NWS and the Storm Prediction Center.

The SPC maintains an enhanced risk down through a good portion of central AL. The local Bham NWS trimmed the enhanced risk area back considerably for the central Alabama warning area and even mentioned in their forecast product they considered removing it entirely due to the limiting factors out ahead of the line that might limit the development of discrete cells.

I'll be interested to see if the SPC holds on or if they make some changes at the 7:30 AM update. But it's always interesting when local NWS offices buck the bigger SPC trends. I will say our Bham NWS office is as good as they come. I've had a chance to work with some of those folks when I shadowed there and they know what the heck they are doing.

The SPC has lowered it to slight in Bham now..... Interesting.

[MetEdDawg]

The SPC has lowered it to slight in Bham now..... Interesting.

Definitely seeing a cap that could prevent discrete cells out in front of the main cold front. Latest runs of the HRRR and higher resolution NAM models show that discrete cells should be contained to the upper 1/3 of AL.

So I think it makes sense.