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Thread: Saturday severe threat

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Saturday severe threat

    Now that we made it through yesterday it's time to look at our next severe threat. I wish I could say this one was a cut and dry set up but it still has some questions to answer. Some things are clear. The amount of instability available looks to be about the same as yesterday...just over a larger area. There could be a zone of higher instability across northern MS and AL. The amount of wind shear present Saturday will be enormous. Much more than yesterday. Upwards of 80kts or more of shear will be in place. Normally, that would be extremely concerning but due to some other parameters that might be mitigated some. Depending on the model, the winds are coming in parallel to the front which favors a more linear storm structure. That tends to be less favorable for tornadoes as it leads to a messy storm structure. However, the NAM is trending towards a more negatively tilted trough which makes the winds more perpendicular to the front and would cause more discrete cells. If that were to happen then Saturday could be an extremely active day. Just don't know if that will happen or the more linear from the euro and gfs. Even if the more parallel soliton happens, with that amount of shear it will be possible to super cell structures embedded within the line and bowing segments and those will have at least some tornado threat (think the Winfield tornado last night). Hopefully, this all starts to get resolved in the next 24-36 hours. As of right now the SPC has maintained a slight risk but that could easily go to a minimum of enhanced if the NAM solution even partially verifies. If it fully verifies then a moderate risk would likely exist and it's possible you start to see the word outbreak thrown around. Just have to wait and see. Timing for north MS looks to be morning to early afternoon and afternoon to evening for south MS. This could be a little later if the NAM verifies as it would also be slower.

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    Senior Member TNDawg35's Avatar
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    Is there still any chance of winter weather on the back end like originally thought? (Memphis area)

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNDawg35 View Post
    Is there still any chance of winter weather on the back end like originally thought? (Memphis area)
    A few flurries wouldn't surprise me but I don't look for anything impactful.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    SPC has upgraded north MS and AL to an enhanced risk for Saturday. This is due to the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes in the area highlighted by the black hatching below. While the main storm mode will be a strong squall line that will have embedded tornadoes moving through Saturday, in the hatched area discrete supercells are now looking more likely and will have a chance to produce a couple strong to violent possibly long tracked tornadoes Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.


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    Senior Member defiantdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    SPC has upgraded north MS and AL to an enhanced risk for Saturday. This is due to the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes in the area highlighted by the black hatching below. While the main storm mode will be a strong squall line that will have embedded tornadoes moving through Saturday, in the hatched area discrete supercells are now looking more likely and will have a chance to produce a couple strong to violent possibly long tracked tornadoes Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.

    Love how Jackson and Birmingham are as close to the line as you can get.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Just looked at the latest HRRR and it is picking up on the discrete supercells quite nicely. Developing them late afternoon over eastern MS and advancing them into central and northern AL after dark. The euro is also on the discrete bandwagon but developing them further west over the MS delta region. If you're in/near the hatched area stay weather aware until you're given the all clear on this system. It looks to have an attitude.

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    Senior Member TNDawg35's Avatar
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    Can you give a round about when it will move through the Memphis area. Got something planned for Sat morning… Thanks!

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNDawg35 View Post
    Can you give a round about when it will move through the Memphis area. Got something planned for Sat morning… Thanks!
    Per the overnight HRRR late morning to around noon. Could get a passing shower earlier, though. This will update again in an hour or so and I'll take a look then and revise if necessary.

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    I mean, 2020 was Covid crazy. 2021 economically horrible. Why not start 2022 with even higher inflation, another Covid outbreak, and some damn tornados followed by sleet after a shitty Liberty Bowl? I'm starting to feel like Job.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Allow me to make a selfish request. Relax, it costs nothing. I'm asking any that are willing to go to my chase team YouTube channel and subscribe and to pass the word to others to do the same. We're trying hard to get up to 1,000 subscribers so we can allow ads for revenue and to be able to livestream without the use of a 3rd party app. Storm chasing is a rather expensive venture, especially with gas prices increasing, and right now it all comes 100% out of our own pockets. I would say an average chase costs in the neighborhood of $100 not counting the extra maintenance on vehicles plus equipment. For those of us where every dollar is important that can add up. I know right now we don't have a lot of videos uploaded to our channel but were trying to change that. Also why I'm asking for help here since it costs nothing. We do have a Patreon account for premium content but I'm not hawking it since I won't ask anybody to spend money.

    https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters

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    Suscribed awhile back/ Enjoy watching it.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Suscribed awhile back/ Enjoy watching it.
    Thanks so much. And if you don't mind, mention to your friends and family. Ask them to help out the crazy storm chasers in a way that costs nothing.

    Everytime we go to chase we're set up to livestream it. Just need storms with a view and daytime. Although I will mention our livestreams are only available through our Patreon account but are then uploaded to our channel after the fact.

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    Senior Member shoeless joe's Avatar
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    Subscribed.

    Least I could do for my go to source on severe weather…

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Allow me to make a selfish request. Relax, it costs nothing. I'm asking any that are willing to go to my chase team YouTube channel and subscribe and to pass the word to others to do the same. We're trying hard to get up to 1,000 subscribers so we can allow ads for revenue and to be able to livestream without the use of a 3rd party app. Storm chasing is a rather expensive venture, especially with gas prices increasing, and right now it all comes 100% out of our own pockets. I would say an average chase costs in the neighborhood of $100 not counting the extra maintenance on vehicles plus equipment. For those of us where every dollar is important that can add up. I know right now we don't have a lot of videos uploaded to our channel but were trying to change that. Also why I'm asking for help here since it costs nothing. We do have a Patreon account for premium content but I'm not hawking it since I won't ask anybody to spend money.

    https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters
    Done. Really appreciate your weather reports. My wife will ask me...is it supposed to get bad tonight....I tell her I'm waiting on Starkvegasdawg to update. She's like, huh??? LOL

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    Subscribed. Really enjoy your work. Thanks.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    So, for your favorite Nashville area Dawg, am I north of the highest risk or dead center. I'm west Nashville, Bellevue area.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    So, for your favorite Nashville area Dawg, am I north of the highest risk or dead center. I'm west Nashville, Bellevue area.
    Nashville is currently included. All going to depend on how far the unstable air can reach. Right now in Starkville it's mid 70's and humid.

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    Senior Member Dawg_Lover's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    SPC has upgraded north MS and AL to an enhanced risk for Saturday. This is due to the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes in the area highlighted by the black hatching below. While the main storm mode will be a strong squall line that will have embedded tornadoes moving through Saturday, in the hatched area discrete supercells are now looking more likely and will have a chance to produce a couple strong to violent possibly long tracked tornadoes Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.


    Bare with me, for I am about to ask a dumb question. What is a hatching or black hatching area, and for this round of storms, where is it located?
    * Foghorn Leghorn-isms *

    > about as subtle as a hand grenade in a barrel of oatmeal.

    > more mixed up than a feather in a whirlwind.

    > gettin so deep the farmers have to jack up the cows so they can milk em.

    > making more noise than a couple of skeletons dancing on a tin roof.

  19. #19
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg_Lover View Post
    Bare with me, for I am about to ask a dumb question. What is a hatching or black hatching area, and for this round of storms, where is it located?
    The hatching is the black lined area in the graph. It means a greater chance of strong to violent tornadoes.

    To be specific the yellow area is a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point. The hatched area is at least a 10% chance of a EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of any given point.
    Last edited by starkvegasdawg; 12-31-2021 at 01:58 PM.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Dawg_Lover's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    The hatching is the black lined area in the graph. It means a greater chance of strong to violent tornadoes.

    To be specific the yellow area is a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point. The hatched area is at least a 10% chance of a EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of any given point.

    Thanks for the info, SVD. And, I am now a proud subscriber of your YouTube channel. 😃

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