Will Rogers and the NCAA records

[Quaoarsking]

Maybe I should wait a couple more days for the sting of yesterday to dissipate a little, but I thought I'd go ahead and post his path to the records.

TLDR: Rogers is well ahead of pace to be the most prolific passer in college football history.

I don't know if Rogers will be our starter in 2022, 2023, and 2024, but I'll be showing what he needs to do on a per game level with 39 more games to go. When I talk about "pace" I'm just multiplying his 2021 stats by 4 and adding in 2020 on top of that. Obviously I hope he improves, and I hope we play more than 13 games per year, winning SEC titles and playoffs

Also, don't ever let an Ole Miss fan make you feel bad if Rogers sets records playing for 5 years because Case Keenum and Timmy Chang played for 5 years after getting a medical redshirt in a year they threw for over 1,000 yards.

• Completions
  • I'm not a huge fan of this stat, since it includes negative yardage completions, which I think should be a different stat. I don't really know how Rogers compares in what % of his passes go for negative or no gain, but I suspect it's higher than others high on this list
  • The record is Case Keenum with 1,546. Roger's had 505 this year (38.8 per game). He has 744 in his career (already a school record), and will only need 20.6 per game to break the record. He's on pace to obliterate this record with 2,259 and would break it the middle of 2023.
  • The single season record is only 512 completions with Graham Harrell in 2007. Will could've had that with a little better game last night. I'm hoping we run a little more and cut down on the 0-yard dumpoffs, so maybe he doesn't ever break this record.
  • The single game record is 58 (or 64 counting D2). Will's highest was 50 this year against Memphis. I'd give him a decent chance to break this at some point, just because we'll probably get in a shootout.
• Yards
  • The record for passing yards is Case Keenum with 19,217. I previously thought this record would stand for a long tim, but I think Will has a good shot if he starts 39 more times. He's at 6,715, so he'll need 320.6 yards per game to get it. He had 364.5 this year. He is on "pace" for 20,932.
  • Rogers finished 2nd nationally this year with 4,739 yards (unless Bryce Young passes him). He finished second to WKU's Bailey Zappe, with an ungodly 5,967 yards to break the record. I just don't see Rogers ever getting this high in a 13-game season against mostly SEC defenses. It would take 459/game, which is more than he's ever had in his career.
  • The single game record is 734 by Connor Halliday and Patrick Mahomes. (736 if you include D3). Rogers' career high is 440 against Ole Miss in 2020. I don't see him ever approaching a game like this, but it should be pointed out that 7 of the 21 times an FBS QB has gone for over 600 yards, it was a Leach team.
• Touchdowns
  • Case Keenum also holds this record with 155. Rogers is at 47, meaning he needs 2.8 per game to get there. 2.8 per game is what he had in 2021, and he is on "pace" for 155 exactly.
  • The single season record was also set this year by Zappe with 62. To do that in a 13 game season, Will would need 4.7 per game(!)
  • The single game record is 11, by David Klingler in 1989.

Also of note is the record for career completion percentage already belongs to Roger's at 72.3%. Hopefully he doesn't lose this one in the future. Colt Brennan is second at 70.4%.

So that's the story on Rogers. If he can stay healthy, keep the starting job, play 39 more games, and keep producing at this level (none of which are guarantees), he will own the NCAA record book.


And for the finale, I'll shift players to one that may not be on anyone's radar. Jo'quavious Marks has 143 career receptions and is on "pace" for 392. The NCAA record is 399 (Zay Jones). I don't know if we keep Mark's through 2024, but I bet Moorhead never told him during the recruiting process that he might make a run at a receiving record.

[Extendedcab]

All of the above stats are fine, but if you can not win the game, what does it matter? It is just pure numbers without any meaning - for the team!

[Quaoarsking]

All of the above stats are fine, but if you can not win the game, what does it matter? It is just pure numbers without any meaning - for the team!

Hmm, I recall Rogers beating 3 teams this year who will finished ranked. That's probably a school career record right there.

[Dak Holliday]

He will definitely own every SEC passing record and possibly the NCAA ones as well, but at what cost? The top 62 offensive CFB teams put up 400+ yds/game. We are just doing 365 of ours through ONE player. This is just a shifting of numbers and production at the cost of being very one dimensional to do so.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Hmm, I recall Rogers beating 3 teams this year who will finished ranked. That's probably a school career record right there.

And is a kicker away from 2 more.

[bulldawg28]

And is a kicker away from 2 more.

Stop it or go ahead and add who we lost to as well.

[mparkerfd20]

I like the kid, but it really wouldn't hurt my feelings if he gets beat out and never plays another meaningful down to improve his meaningless stats.

[CaptainObvious]

This☝🏻☝🏻☝🏻☝🏻

If we win 9 games next year, passing for 200 and rushing for 200, I?ll be happy to say we moved away from an immobile QB to a mobile one.

[WhiskeyPirate]

Will got thrown in there because we didn’t have anyone else and hats off to him, he’s given everything he’s got and really for a young team 7-5 was a pretty decent year.

That said, I am doubting he is the starter the next 3 years. State will have a q b eventually, who has great upside as far as arm strength, athleticism/mobility(think Minshew not Michael Vick), pedigree/experience running a spread offense. That q b will beat out Will as the starter. The offense will be very difficult to contain when it attacks 60 yards down field and sideline to sideline.

Will would be a heck of a backup and like another coach on the sideline/field. He’s a good kid and has played above what anyone could expect.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Stop it or go ahead and add who we lost to as well.

Im confused

[KOdawg1]

I want Will to succeed, but the stats are pretty meaningless in my eyes.

As the leader of the team who plays the most important position on the field, I'm going to judge him based on the games he wins and/or loses.

He can throw for 5,000 yards and that's fine and dandy, but if we only win 6 games out of it, that's not good enough.

Next year is a big year for him and us. The excuses are gone. Gotta win games.

[Homedawg]

He's going to be the qb until he decides to leave. Might as well get use to it..... hes accurate and makes good decisions, for the most part.

[RougeDawg]

One item to remember is WR never really did attempt to stretch the field until the 2nd half of this season. And we started beating teams who were clear favorites. The entire offense changed for the better when he started and got more comfortable going downfield. It opened everything up. It?s a process that requires great receivers and repetition.

[Mjoelner34]

One item to remember is WR never really did attempt to stretch the field until the 2nd half of this season. And we started beating teams who were clear favorites. The entire offense changed for the better when he started and got more comfortable going downfield. It opened everything up. It?s a process that requires great receivers and repetition.

The first sentence is not true at all. Receivers have been open 15+ yds down field every game since the first game this year. We started winning when he started attempting passes longer than 10yds.

[RougeDawg]

The first sentence is not true at all. Receivers have been open 15+ yds down field every game since the first game this year. We started winning when he started attempting passes longer than 10yds.

How is the first sentence wrong? Your response confirmed it. Will getting comfortable and attempting to throw it downfield was the difference in 1st half and 2nd half of season. Never said there weren?t throws downfield. For some reason Will didn?t start attempting until later in the season.

[vv83]

Im confused

Think he's saying beating 3 ranked teams is diminished by losing to Memphis, TTU, and Ole Miss. Which is a fair criticism, Will was bad in both those first 2. Won't put Ole Miss on him, everyone was horrible that game.